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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Remeber ps4 at bf for 199?



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quickrick said:
Nautilus said:

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

About that Pokemon part, I'm pretty sure the 3ds got a signifacnt sales boost in Japan when Sun and Moon was released. And those was the third sets of titles on the system



If things go well starting this month/next month, the switch might beat the ps4 this year.



This will be the last year PS4 outsells the Switch. Year after that the Switch will sell more. In 2 years PS5 will outsell both and never look back.



MasonADC said:
quickrick said:

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

About that Pokemon part, I'm pretty sure the 3ds got a signifacnt sales boost in Japan when Sun and Moon was released. And those was the third sets of titles on the system

I'm talking about massive boost where it can keep its momentum in sales, the first set of pokemon games couldn't even do that for 3ds.



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Nautilus said:
quickrick said:

nintedo will lose momentum much faster, as there systems really only sell because of nintendo games, and they are releasing all there big franchises early, once pokemon effect goes away 3-4 months switch will start losing momentum just like 3ds. A ps4 at 199$ could be a blood bath.

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

What reason is there to suggest that people will just stop buying PS4's simply because there's 'so many already'? We have all seen the ceiling for PS consoles, and the PS4 is basically following that blueprint to the T. I don't think it will sell 155 million+, but I do expect at least 110 million sold by the release of the PS5 in November 2020.

Expecting 15 million in 2019 doesn't sound crazy at all. The world won't just suddenly run out of potential PS4 customers. It didn't happen to the PS2, why the PS4? Mind share and library are only getting better and better for the PS4. It's had record breaking months and has several mega blockbusters for this year both first and third party. It has a pretty positive road map of games going forward and I don't see any reason for PS4 to drastically slow down.

That said, 2019 will not sell as many PS4's as 2017-2018, but I also expect more than 15 million as well.



quickrick said:
Nautilus said:

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

Its not much ahead of the Switch in the US, and thats not factoring in the fact that the Switch had hardly any noteworthy game released on it in 2018, outside of good ports(but still ports).But thats beyond the point.What should be more important than what a console is doing right now, is what the company themselves are forecastingfor said consoles in the future, and thats a bigger evidence than anything you and I mentioned here.Sony forecast 16 million units sold for this fiscal year(a decline) while the Nintendo forecast 20 million units sold this fiscal year(an increase, and for Switch only).In these forecasts they already factor things like bundles and special deals and price cuts, so this is a better basis to build an argumentation about the company prospects than anything else.Im not saying that things could turn out differently, but its just unlikely.And as time goes on, so does the console sales also decrease,after it passed its prime years, simply because the customer that wanted that console already bought it.So the likelyhood of PS4 selling better than it did this year is small.

About the Switch games, any exclusive moves systems, even if its a fraction of the number a bigger IP does.And 50% of the total number of Pokemon fans are still huge, given that the Pokemon fanbase is on the millions if Im not mistaken.And you just countered those games from all the ones I mentioned.Thats just goes to show how many bullets Nintendo has left.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

LethalP said:
Nautilus said:

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

What reason is there to suggest that people will just stop buying PS4's simply because there's 'so many already'? We have all seen the ceiling for PS consoles, and the PS4 is basically following that blueprint to the T. I don't think it will sell 155 million+, but I do expect at least 110 million sold by the release of the PS5 in November 2020.

Expecting 15 million in 2019 doesn't sound crazy at all. The world won't just suddenly run out of potential PS4 customers. It didn't happen to the PS2, why the PS4? Mind share and library are only getting better and better for the PS4. It's had record breaking months and has several mega blockbusters for this year both first and third party. It has a pretty positive road map of games going forward and I don't see any reason for PS4 to drastically slow down.

That said, 2019 will not sell as many PS4's as 2017-2018, but I also expect more than 15 million as well.

Simple.Sony themselves gave the answer you are asking for.They predict that the PS4 will sell 16 million units this fiscal year, and thats a decline compared to last year, even if its not that big of a drop.And if its going to decline this year, its reasonable to think its going to decline even further next year.Im basing my reasoning on that and what i believe to be common sense, which was already explained in the previous post.

Plus I do think that the PS4 will eventually reach and pass 110 million units, but why does it need to pass that mark before the PS5 releases?Consoles dont stop selling after it successor releases.I mean, thats how the PS2 manage to sell 150 million units.And I expect the same for the PS4.In the first two year of the PS5, I still expect the PS4 to sell 5 or 6 million units each year, give or take.Much like the 3DS is doing right now.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
quickrick said:

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

Its not much ahead of the Switch in the US, and thats not factoring in the fact that the Switch had hardly any noteworthy game released on it in 2018, outside of good ports(but still ports).But thats beyond the point.What should be more important than what a console is doing right now, is what the company themselves are forecastingfor said consoles in the future, and thats a bigger evidence than anything you and I mentioned here.Sony forecast 16 million units sold for this fiscal year(a decline) while the Nintendo forecast 20 million units sold this fiscal year(an increase, and for Switch only).In these forecasts they already factor things like bundles and special deals and price cuts, so this is a better basis to build an argumentation about the company prospects than anything else.Im not saying that things could turn out differently, but its just unlikely.And as time goes on, so does the console sales also decrease,after it passed its prime years, simply because the customer that wanted that console already bought it.So the likelyhood of PS4 selling better than it did this year is small.

About the Switch games, any exclusive moves systems, even if its a fraction of the number a bigger IP does.And 50% of the total number of Pokemon fans are still huge, given that the Pokemon fanbase is on the millions if Im not mistaken.And you just countered those games from all the ones I mentioned.Thats just goes to show how many bullets Nintendo has left.

Company forcasts can be hit and miss, they don't mean much to me, nintedo predicted way to high with the wiiu, and way too low with switch.



quickrick said:
Nautilus said:

Its not much ahead of the Switch in the US, and thats not factoring in the fact that the Switch had hardly any noteworthy game released on it in 2018, outside of good ports(but still ports).But thats beyond the point.What should be more important than what a console is doing right now, is what the company themselves are forecastingfor said consoles in the future, and thats a bigger evidence than anything you and I mentioned here.Sony forecast 16 million units sold for this fiscal year(a decline) while the Nintendo forecast 20 million units sold this fiscal year(an increase, and for Switch only).In these forecasts they already factor things like bundles and special deals and price cuts, so this is a better basis to build an argumentation about the company prospects than anything else.Im not saying that things could turn out differently, but its just unlikely.And as time goes on, so does the console sales also decrease,after it passed its prime years, simply because the customer that wanted that console already bought it.So the likelyhood of PS4 selling better than it did this year is small.

About the Switch games, any exclusive moves systems, even if its a fraction of the number a bigger IP does.And 50% of the total number of Pokemon fans are still huge, given that the Pokemon fanbase is on the millions if Im not mistaken.And you just countered those games from all the ones I mentioned.Thats just goes to show how many bullets Nintendo has left.

Company forcasts can be hit and miss, they don't mean much to me, nintedo predicted way to high with the wiiu, and way too low with switch.

They certainly have more information about their own prospects than we do, so I dont think you can shrug it off just like that.But hey, Im just human.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1