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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

LethalP said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.


If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead. 





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The_Liquid_Laser said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead. 



At the bold....I don't know maybe.........the same people that bought and wanted the PS4, 3, 2 and 1????? Like is this a serious question? I mean come on man the Switch is not even hindering the PS4 but will somehow hinder the PS5? Also you have to take into account that the Switch is listed as a Gen 8 machine.....even though I see it as Gen 9 it is listed as part of Gen 8 so we have to take that into consideration as well.



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quickrick said:
xMetroid said:

Hmm no i don't agree with that. A lot of PC gamers are going on Switch instead of buying a PS4/Xbox as a console anymore. 

 

Also PS4 pro, Scorpio and Switch are all relatively new and really expensive products so im sure if a new generation starts in 2019/2020 they might need a lot to convince people when you know there main argument is graphics and Pro and X are already doing so well already in that departement... Games take so long to make and we might see an even longer drought on PS5/Xbox? Than PS4 and One had since there is still huge games coming in 2 years and more and there is no way they will launch big games on brand new system, it will be cross gen as usual.

 

I think sony might have to innovate this time to really change the game and convince people. But usually when they win a gen they act lazy af.

Where are you getting this fake info from. switch came out last year, and ps4 had its best year ever, and xbox/ps4 are having the best year when combined according to NPD.

Well most PC gamers I know generally buy Nintendo consoles because most of he stuff on the other consoles is already on PC - and there even in beautiful. For them it mostly boils down to the exclusives, and while Sony did a really great job here, they still just can't compete in that domain with Nintendo in terms of quantity. Due to the high quality of PS4 exclusives quite a few PC gamers also bought a PS4 - but of those who were interested into those games most already have one and are much more inclined to buy a Switch now



The_Liquid_Laser said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead. 



It's not called 'the Nintendo market' like it's a thing. It's simply the demographic Nintendo hardware sells to. The Swtich, along with the Wii, WiiU and their handhelds continues to be a console that gets third party games as side filler, rather than something specifically designed to run on it from a fundamental level. This is felt even buy Nintendo buyers and very often you see games that could sell 10 million on a PlayStation struggle to sell 1 million on the Switch. The Wii is competing, but not directly in the same market. Unlike PS or Xbox, it's sales does not depend on how well the direct competiton is selling.

PS and Xbox sales even eachother out at around 170-180 million units. Depending on the gen they both get different slices of the pie, last gen it was more equal, this gen PS4 gets the lions share. The Switch isn't eating into this pie at all. We know this because 2017 and 2018, the 2 years so far PS4 and Switch have existed in tandem, have been the best 2 years for PS4 sales and indeed Xbox One sales. They are both experiencing similar growth the PS3/360 did in 2010/2011.

The Switch is getting third party dreggs. It's getting 360 ports and gimped mutilations of current gen games that had to be made by a seperate studio. Current gen games can't simply be ported to Switch, it's too weak to run the renderer's. As for fighters, the PS4 has the lions share. Actually, the PC does but whatever. In the world of consoles not owning a PS4 as a fighting game fanboy would be insane.

The Switch still doesn't sell satisfactory ammounts of third party software, unless it's a JRPG or Sonic or something. Skyrim is yet to hit a million, yeah it's a late port but still, it's Skyrim. The problem is Switch gets too many late ports. God forbid a third party game be ready on the Switch at the same time it launches on PS4. This kills momentum it could have had. And lets face it, it's not getting CoD, Battlefield, Red Dead, Far Cry, Tomb Raider, Avengers game, many of the big titles. The only significant game releases Switch gets on time, or at all are it's own exclusives.

I'll give the Switch this, it's doing better with third parties than the 3DS. It's on the right track, but it can only go so far. It's going to be one hell of a console to own eventually with a robust library of it's own, but it can never replace the function that the PS4 and Xbox One have, and that is being the base line for AAA development. Which is why as soon as PS5 releases, third party games will start looking better, because PS/Xbox change the lowest common denominator, not Nintendo consoles.

 



GBA DS  Switch

FY1  107 527 274

FY2 1709 1146 1505

FY3 1565 2356 2000※Forecast

FY4 1759 3031

FY5 1540 3118

FY6   883 2711

FY7   434 1752

FY8   159   510

FY9  42   235

FY10  4  13


Average of GBA and DS / Switch

FY1 317  274

FY2 1427 1505

FY3 1960 2000※Forecast

FY4 2395

FY5 2329

FY6 1797

FY7 1093

FY8 334

FY9 138

FY10 8



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So basically, Switch is selling like a Nintendo handheld? No real surprise there.



TheBlackNaruto said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead. 



At the bold....I don't know maybe.........the same people that bought and wanted the PS4, 3, 2 and 1????? Like is this a serious question? I mean come on man the Switch is not even hindering the PS4 but will somehow hinder the PS5? Also you have to take into account that the Switch is listed as a Gen 8 machine.....even though I see it as Gen 9 it is listed as part of Gen 8 so we have to take that into consideration as well.

You act as if the PS3 had the same level of sales as PS1, 2, and 4.  Those "Sony fans" jumped ship from PS3.  Console loyalty is mostly a myth.  Sony lost a lot of money on PS3, and that was while they were trying their hardest to compete with the Wii and XBox360.  Do you think these so called "Sony fans" are going to wait until 2021 for the PS5 and play nothing in the meantime?  No.  If the Switch is the only current console on the market, then they are going to buy a Switch.


LethalP said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead. 



It's not called 'the Nintendo market' like it's a thing. It's simply the demographic Nintendo hardware sells to. The Swtich, along with the Wii, WiiU and their handhelds continues to be a console that gets third party games as side filler, rather than something specifically designed to run on it from a fundamental level. This is felt even buy Nintendo buyers and very often you see games that could sell 10 million on a PlayStation struggle to sell 1 million on the Switch. The Wii is competing, but not directly in the same market. Unlike PS or Xbox, it's sales does not depend on how well the direct competiton is selling.

PS and Xbox sales even eachother out at around 170-180 million units. Depending on the gen they both get different slices of the pie, last gen it was more equal, this gen PS4 gets the lions share. The Switch isn't eating into this pie at all. We know this because 2017 and 2018, the 2 years so far PS4 and Switch have existed in tandem, have been the best 2 years for PS4 sales and indeed Xbox One sales. They are both experiencing similar growth the PS3/360 did in 2010/2011.

The Switch is getting third party dreggs. It's getting 360 ports and gimped mutilations of current gen games that had to be made by a seperate studio. Current gen games can't simply be ported to Switch, it's too weak to run the renderer's. As for fighters, the PS4 has the lions share. Actually, the PC does but whatever. In the world of consoles not owning a PS4 as a fighting game fanboy would be insane.

The Switch still doesn't sell satisfactory ammounts of third party software, unless it's a JRPG or Sonic or something. Skyrim is yet to hit a million, yeah it's a late port but still, it's Skyrim. The problem is Switch gets too many late ports. God forbid a third party game be ready on the Switch at the same time it launches on PS4. This kills momentum it could have had. And lets face it, it's not getting CoD, Battlefield, Red Dead, Far Cry, Tomb Raider, Avengers game, many of the big titles. The only significant game releases Switch gets on time, or at all are it's own exclusives.

I'll give the Switch this, it's doing better with third parties than the 3DS. It's on the right track, but it can only go so far. It's going to be one hell of a console to own eventually with a robust library of it's own, but it can never replace the function that the PS4 and Xbox One have, and that is being the base line for AAA development. Which is why as soon as PS5 releases, third party games will start looking better, because PS/Xbox change the lowest common denominator, not Nintendo consoles.

 

You are still acting like Nintendo is in a separate market from Sony and Microsoft.  They are all in the same market.  The number of gamers who are "Nintendo only" or "Sony only" are extremely small.  Most gamers are just gamers.  They go to the console with the best games and the biggest library.

Third parties ARE going to bring their games to Switch.  To think otherwise is foolish.  Switch has a good size customer base, and it is selling the same types of games that are on PS4 and XB1.  Third parties ARE going to bring their games.  Is power an issue?  Hell no.  Square Enix released DQXI on the PS4 and the 3DS.  Third parties can port a game to a less powerful console if they want and Switch isn't that much weaker than PS4/XB1.  I mean people are acting like the Switch has the power of a 3DS.  No, it's not that much of a power difference and they could still port games to the 3DS if they really wanted to.  Third parties definitely can and will make games for the Switch.

Power is not an issue.  A different customer base is not an issue.  A low customer base is not an issue.  All of the issues that third parties might have had with Wii or Wii U are not there anymore.  On the other hand the Switch has one huge advantage that the PS5 doesn't have.  It's already on the market.  Third parties are not going to hold onto all of their games until 2020-2021 so that Sony can take their sweet time to release PS5.  They need to make money in the meantime.   If there is only one current console on the market, then it is pretty obvious which console is going to get the third party games.

This is why PS5 is in deep trouble.  If they wait, then they are going to get clobbered by the Switch.  I mean they could close their eyes and pretend like they aren't competing with Nintendo anymore, but they are in for a rude awakening if they do that.  (Although, I personally don't think Sony is nearly as naive as the posters in this thread who are defending the PS5.)



The Switch doesn't even come close to a PS4, let alone a PS4 pro, when it comes to actual graphical prowess. It's illogical to think that people who are used to PS4 graphics would jump to a graphically downgraded system for no reason. Games will continue to be made for the PS4. So if they're not happy with the PS5's game selection they'll stay with the PS4 and then jump to the PS5 whenever they feel it's worth it. There's no jumping to the Switch involved since the Switch isn't going to get the latest and greatest third-party AAA games.



Megiddo said:

The Switch doesn't even come close to a PS4, let alone a PS4 pro, when it comes to actual graphical prowess. It's illogical to think that people who are used to PS4 graphics would jump to a graphically downgraded system for no reason. Games will continue to be made for the PS4. So if they're not happy with the PS5's game selection they'll stay with the PS4 and then jump to the PS5 whenever they feel it's worth it. There's no jumping to the Switch involved since the Switch isn't going to get the latest and greatest third-party AAA games.

A few will be missing for sure, but not all.

Besides, maybe they're buying the Switch because they want something else than those games?



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Besides, maybe they're buying the Switch because they want something else than those games?

There likely are plenty of PS4 owners who are buying a Switch and vice-versa. This is done to complement the amount of software available, not replace it. As has been repeated and shown by stats, the PS4 and Switch are not at odds with eachother. Both have found tremendous success during the same time period.