Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

LethalP said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.

If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

(referring to bold)  I read your post and think the exact same thing.  Where the hell does a "Nintendo market" come from?  Companies don't get their own market.  Companies compete with each other.  A person doesn't even need to take business 101 to know that companies compete with each other.  This idea that there is a "Nintendo market" spits in the face of basic reasoning.  Nintendo and Sony know that they are competing with each other.  For some reason, there are people on this forum that haven't figured this out yet.

Even the Wii and PS3 were competing with each other.  The games on the two consoles were radically different, but they were still competing.  Every so often Shadow1980 will post a chart showing XBox360+PS3 is tracking lower than XBox+PS2 and XB1+PS4.  Where did those customers go in Gen 7?  They went to the Wii.  The games were so different and yet the Wii still took gamers away from PS3 and XBox360.

Well the Switch games are not radically different this time around.  Zelda Breath of the Wild is like other open world fantasy games like Horizon Zero Dawn or Witcher 3.  That's why Bethesda feels comfortable porting Skyrim.  The Switch is now a lot more similar to what Sony and Microsoft have.  Switch is the go-to console for fighting games, and fighting gamers are the most hardcore bunch around.  Nintendo leads the way with Smash Bros, and then third parties bring their fighting games like Street Fighter or SNK Heroines.  And that is how it goes for every genre.  Third parties are seeing that the core stuff sells on the Switch.  Splatoon 2 is selling great so expect more online shooters to come to Switch.  Xenoblade Chronicles is selling decent so expect more JRPGs to come to Switch.  Of course Switch will have plenty of platformers, tactical RPGs, racing games and local multiplayer games. 

Switch will have plenty of every type of game that a core gamer would want.  That is why PS5 is in trouble.  If Sony just lets Nintendo sell the Switch for 3-4 years with zero competition, then who will be left to buy a PS5?  Everyone will be enjoying their Switch instead.