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Forums - Movies & TV - Solo Headed To Become A Flop? Yep, It Flopped.

 

How Much Will Solo Make WW?

Under $700M 56 60.87%
 
$700M-$800M 18 19.57%
 
$801M-$900M 12 13.04%
 
$901M-$1B 3 3.26%
 
Over $1B 3 3.26%
 
Total:92

1.62m yesterday. On track for 215m domestic.

Needs 1.57 today to keep the ratio. Yesterday and very limited Incredibles release. Today has a much wider one. Tomorrow is a full release.

Needs 2.46m tomorrow to keep up the ratio. Needs 8.91m for the weekend



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Even though its a bomb its not the biggest Disney bomb this year that would be A Wrinkle In Time. Also Pacific Rim Uprising is a bigger bomb despite being a lot more successful overseas and almost making $100 million in China. Speaking about China, Ready Player One pretty much got bailed out from being a bomb by almost making $220 million dollars there.



Solo's DBO now sits at $192.85M. This is 59.6% lower than RO for the same point in time. If this holds Solo will make $215M at the DBO. If the FBO percentage holds, it will end its WW run with $378.52M.



Jesus. I was expecting this film to at least make it's budget before marketing, and it wont likely get to 8 figures within that.

I didn't want to propose this since I figured the next film will be a big deal, but it might be time to start considering whether or not Episode IX will flop.



TH3-D0S3R said:
Jesus. I was expecting this film to at least make it's budget before marketing, and it wont likely get to 8 figures within that.

I didn't want to propose this since I figured the next film will be a big deal, but it might be time to start considering whether or not Episode IX will flop.

This movie is going to end up costing Disney $160M-$180M.



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TH3-D0S3R said:
Jesus. I was expecting this film to at least make it's budget before marketing, and it wont likely get to 8 figures within that.

I didn't want to propose this since I figured the next film will be a big deal, but it might be time to start considering whether or not Episode IX will flop.

If they don't change anything before Episode IX, it will flop compared to the previous ones. They can't get more people than TLJ, it will probably be quite less viewers if you count people who lost interest and people boycotting. And other movies won't be scared of SW anymore, so they can't expect an easy release schedule.

 

Except if the movie is considered a masterpiece by the first viewers, it will be quite lower than TLJ (which was already quite lower than TFA). People will defend it saying that's it will still be big numbers, but compared to the others, a flop can be expected. 



Faelco said:
TH3-D0S3R said:
Jesus. I was expecting this film to at least make it's budget before marketing, and it wont likely get to 8 figures within that.

I didn't want to propose this since I figured the next film will be a big deal, but it might be time to start considering whether or not Episode IX will flop.

If they don't change anything before Episode IX, it will flop compared to the previous ones. They can't get more people than TLJ, it will probably be quite less viewers if you count people who lost interest and people boycotting. And other movies won't be scared of SW anymore, so they can't expect an easy release schedule.

 

Except if the movie is considered a masterpiece by the first viewers, it will be quite lower than TLJ (which was already quite lower than TFA). People will defend it saying that's it will still be big numbers, but compared to the others, a flop can be expected. 

Yea, it's looking like they are staying the course for now. Spewing out mediocre films and bashing the fans as they go along.  I'm guessing Ep 9 won't flop in the literal sense of the word, but it will greatly disappoint. Guessing $900M-$1.1B. 



thismeintiel said:
Faelco said:

If they don't change anything before Episode IX, it will flop compared to the previous ones. They can't get more people than TLJ, it will probably be quite less viewers if you count people who lost interest and people boycotting. And other movies won't be scared of SW anymore, so they can't expect an easy release schedule.

 

Except if the movie is considered a masterpiece by the first viewers, it will be quite lower than TLJ (which was already quite lower than TFA). People will defend it saying that's it will still be big numbers, but compared to the others, a flop can be expected. 

Yea, it's looking like they are staying the course for now. Spewing out mediocre films and bashing the fans as they go along.  I'm guessing Ep 9 won't flop in the literal sense of the word, but it will greatly disappoint. Guessing $900M-$1.1B. 

Considering how a mainline Star Wars is unavoidable by any aspect in society, if Episode IX makes below $1 Billion, that is the biggest flop/failure in cinematic history, regardless of budget. 

Not even mainline Marvel films can expect 10 figures. Star Wars is the only franchise that can really expect to make this kind of money, and while Solo is a spinoff, the fact it didn't do $500 million with all the ads it got is amazing to me. A film with no relevant characters minus the last two minutes made more than 3 times the current gross revenue of a film with Han Solo as the focus. Granted Rouge One had the fortune to not come after TLJ, but Solo has gotten FAR more advertising put into it than Rouge One ever had (at least compared to what I've seen).

In hindsight, to me the modern Star Wars films boil down to 3 problems that smaller issues are interwoven with.

1.The focus of the films is no longer the story-Disney themselves have said they have put all their efforts into affects and making sure that these Star Wars films LOOKED like Star Wars films. Quite honestly the special effects are amazing beyond all belief and can be a marvel to behold, but Star Wars is not built around special effects. Star Wars is known for its storytelling, which brings in these great fights. I remember being amazed of the aesthetics of the Salt planet and the fight on said planet in TLJ, but looking back I've found glaring issues. The story was so badly paced and even events involving the story that happened DURING the fight made no sense (you know what I'm talking about if you've seen TLJ). And that made me realize, why the hell should I care how great a fight looks if I can't understand the process of how we got here and the events in and after the fight itself.

This is the equivalent to putting a band-aid on a broken arm, Sure you put something on that would help in a different context, but for the given situation this is worse than ignoring the broken arm outright because you can acknowledge the problem without providing any sort of easy solution. Star Wars producers basically saying 'but look at the effects' know what the problems are, they just willfully choose to ignore it.

2.Bashing the fanbase-I never understood this idea that the Star Wars fanbase is entirely toxic and should be ignored at all costs. In fact, the only time I ever hear this is from other Star Wars fans who seemingly want to sweep the glaring problems of their films under the rug. Sure there are terrible groups of fans, there is for nearly everything and there always will be.

As for me, I'm a casual fan who never saw the original trilogy and only the bits of prequels and all the new films up to Solo, so safe to say I have NO attachment to this franchise. That being said, how has acknowledging fan requests ever been completely god awful in recent memory. Hell, Smash Ultimate is basically outcries from a majority of huge/hardcore Smash fans, and it STILL looks like a game anyone can enjoy. When I see these new Star Wars films, I think of the Transformers films, mind-numbingly over the top films that have little connection to the source material minus a couple characters. If I can compare Star Wars to the modern Transformers films, I think answering fans should be one of the first things you do, right after you fire the entire staff behind these films.

3.Blatant messaging-This wasn't an issue for me at first for TFA, but as I watched TLJ, I went back and saw these sorts of moments in TFA. Now, do I like messaging in my films? Not in particular, especially in Star Wars, but there are ways that it can be done properly.

The key to making proper political messages in a film like Star Wars is to make it underlying and not the focus for the part of the film it is in. If there were moments like that in the original trilogy (again I've never seen it), I'm willing to bet they were put in a different context to fit in the idea of a galaxy far, far away. When you heard Rose talk about the rich people in the casino, what part of that felt like it was in a galaxy far, far away? The purpose of Star Wars is to put these similar looking people in an entirely different world, and when you add rhetoric in that is better applied in our world, it ruins the immersion of the film.

Also, I saw this https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/05/29/as-solo-a-star-wars-story-flops-are-movies-about-white-men-box-office-poison/#70f55bea5d49 . As a libertarian, the idea of this just shows me that no one has any clue what is wrong with Star Wars.



It seems Disney managed to make Star Wars uncool by turning a galaxy far far away into politics of the current year (TM).

JJA is happy to cut out Star Wars fans if they don't like his Mary Sue creations.

Star Wars is a big galaxy, and you can sort of find almost anything you want to in Star Wars. If you are someone who feels threatened by women and needs to lash out against them, you can probably find an enemy in Star Wars. You can probably look at the first movie that George [Lucas] did [Star Wars: A New Hope] and say that Leia was too outspoken, or she was too tough. Anyone who wants to find a problem with anything can find the problem.



Star Wars is overrated anyway, the main reason it took off in a huge way was because Lucas fluked out into the "lets make Darth Vader Luke's father" which wasn't even in the original Empire drafts that made that original series more interesting than it had any business being. Otherwise it would've just been Star Wars 2, Star Wars 3, etc. generic sequels to the first film. Lucas is a mediocre writer in many other respects, the prequels already proved he had no clue what he was doing. Disney is just trying to milk nostalgia from the OT but took too much risk with the character of Luke in VIII.

And Star Wars didn't have to compete against anything in the 70s/80s ... there was no LOTR trilogy, no Marvel films, no Avatar, no Matrix, no Spider-Man, no nothing, it was the only big fantasy IP at a time where like there were maybe 2-3 "big budget" blockbuster movies a year, now there's that many in a month. It was the only game in town.

The sequel trilogy was never going to be anything that mind blowing ... the story arc concluded in Return of the Jedi, they were never gonna top that.

Star Wars is not king, Cameron with all due respect is the king. Avatar and Titanic both beat every Star Wars film inflation adjusted, sorry Star Wars nerds. Marvel also has a better overall canon of characters .... far better, they have 60+ years of thousands of writers and hundreds of issues of depth to even "side characters" ... Star Wars characters like even Han Solo or Boba Fett (lol, gimme a break) are BORING compared to what you can do with Iron Man, Deadpool, Dr. Strange, Thor, etc. All those characters have fully formed story arcs, personalities, etc.