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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Megiddo said:
Still waiting for the pro to show up on Best Buy. Quite ridiculous it has been out for so long.

It's not even available on Gamestop actually. The date has even being changed to a week later for the shipping:  "ships by 8/24".

Anyways looks like PS4 could take August which is quite unexpected.



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We never really got June numbers, so its a shame the accuracy couldn't be updated completely.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Sure the second Switch at Gamestop is also Neon? looks like gray to me ^^

I don't know what you are talking about ...     ;)

Farsala said:
We never really got June numbers, so its a shame the accuracy couldn't be updated completely.

Agreed. At least we know we were not completely out of touch...



Game hardware sales volume on a relative basis for July:

Switch: 1
3DS: 0.32
PS4: 0.71
Xbox One: 0.58
Others: 1.37

YoY:
Switch: +18%
3DS: -20%
PS4: -14%
Xbox One: +16%
Others: #ERROR

https://www.resetera.com/threads/july-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-august-14th.60464/page-3#post-11558929



Miyamotoo said:

Game hardware sales volume on a relative basis for July:

Switch: 1
3DS: 0.32
PS4: 0.71
Xbox One: 0.58
Others: 1.37

YoY:
Switch: +18%
3DS: -20%
PS4: -14%
Xbox One: +16%
Others: #ERROR

https://www.resetera.com/threads/july-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-august-14th.60464/page-3#post-11558929

That #Error at Others is meant to represent over 1400% btw.

Here with numbers (also from Era):

PS4 : 187k
Switch : 263k
X1 : 152k
3DS : 84k
Other (NES+SNES...) : 344k

Superb win for the Switch, and PS4 really nosedived a bit, but not enough to get threatened by the XBO

Edit: While the tracking here for the PS4 was off, VGC has seemingly underestimated the Switch a bit and overestimated PS4 and XBO, too

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 17 August 2018

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Miyamotoo said:

Game hardware sales volume on a relative basis for July:

Switch: 1
3DS: 0.32
PS4: 0.71
Xbox One: 0.58
Others: 1.37

YoY:
Switch: +18%
3DS: -20%
PS4: -14%
Xbox One: +16%
Others: #ERROR

https://www.resetera.com/threads/july-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-august-14th.60464/page-3#post-11558929

Well, we have our answer. PS4 pro complete shortages online vs availibility in brick and mortar stores made the tool wrong for the month.

I am still pleased to see we were able to properly predict the turnaround between NS and PS4 and the ratio NS / XBO was alright. 

I will do all the summaries when I am back from holydays ;)



This tool is doing an amazing job. Well done to you Symbios!



Symbios63 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Game hardware sales volume on a relative basis for July:

Switch: 1
3DS: 0.32
PS4: 0.71
Xbox One: 0.58
Others: 1.37

YoY:
Switch: +18%
3DS: -20%
PS4: -14%
Xbox One: +16%
Others: #ERROR

https://www.resetera.com/threads/july-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-august-14th.60464/page-3#post-11558929

Well, we have our answer. PS4 pro complete shortages online vs availibility in brick and mortar stores made the tool wrong for the month.

I am still pleased to see we were able to properly predict the turnaround between NS and PS4 and the ratio NS / XBO was alright. 

I will do all the summaries when I am back from holydays ;)

Dont be hard on yourself matey, you have done a great job with this tool and provided a lot of insight into sales. All this month's result has shown is the disparity between B&M sales and online sales.

The PS4 is a lot stronger in stores than it is online.

By the way, the tool still correctly predicted the winner and you may use this month's result to further tweak the tool but I would advise you be careful doing this. I wasnt really a fan of the changes to the XBox calculations.



duduspace1 said:
Symbios63 said:

Well, we have our answer. PS4 pro complete shortages online vs availibility in brick and mortar stores made the tool wrong for the month.

I am still pleased to see we were able to properly predict the turnaround between NS and PS4 and the ratio NS / XBO was alright. 

I will do all the summaries when I am back from holydays ;)

Dont be hard on yourself matey, you have done a great job with this tool and provided a lot of insight into sales. All this month's result has shown is the disparity between B&M sales and online sales.

The PS4 is a lot stronger in stores than it is online.

By the way, the tool still correctly predicted the winner and you may use this month's result to further tweak the tool but I would advise you be careful doing this. I wasnt really a fan of the changes to the XBox calculations.

I think he should tweak it if a console is having a shortage.



08/17/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 72 (-12) - 285.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 77 (+7) - 482.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 86 (+10) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 15 points (+10) ; XBO : 29 + 24 = 53 points (-5) ; NS : 160 + 100 = 260 points (-16) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 13 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+4) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 26 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 38 (+11) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 77 (+8) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 points (+10) ; XBO : 150 + 100 + 76 + 24 = 350 points (+32) ; NS : 190 + 145 = 335 points (+35) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 19 (-13) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 80 (-4) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 95 (-2) - 499.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 96 (+3) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Madden 2019 - 111 (-4) - 459.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 134 (+41) - 299.00$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 160 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 72 + 45 = 282 points (-41) ; XBO : 56 + 21 = 77 points (+19) ; NS : 56 + 34 = 90 points (+25) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 365.0 points (+19.2) ; Month Average : 325.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 336.0 points (-31.0) ; Month Average : 263.7 points/day ; 0.81 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 246.2 points (+27.8) ; Month Average : 168.0 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.02)



Reminder : I won't be able to post updates or check numbers untill next sunday. If you want me to be able to update later, I will need the daily rankings posted here. If it is not possible, no big deal, we will do without this week.
See ya.