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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Kerotan said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Seems like almost everybody who was interested into the XBO bought one when it was cheap and now nobody's really interested anymore.

I think MS with their aggressive holiday approach every year has trained consumers to buy like that. Ultimately it's less profitable then selling the same number at a higher average price throughout the year. I think that's why Sony has taken a different pricing approach. 

Microsoft makes it's money mostly with the Gamepass and software sales. That said, a permanent pricecut for both of them is way overdue



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chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Or maybe both?

At least the rankings seem correct already. Gonna see in 10 days or 2 weeks what's the exact sales

It is entirely possible, but I´m being cautious about it.  I mean, I know people are expecting humungous numbers based on Benji´s words.  But it is precisely because of Benji´s words that I´m being cautious.  I mean, in the last couple of months I have noticed that he does have a tendency of overestimating Switch´s numbers a little bit. 

And just to clarify, I´m not saying that the guy has a bias towards the Switch. It could be just coincidence, or it could be that he just has access to Nintendo´s data before the others and that prevents him from having the whole picture until the very end, idk. 

Anyways, let´s wait and see.

Called it...



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Kerotan said:

I think MS with their aggressive holiday approach every year has trained consumers to buy like that. Ultimately it's less profitable then selling the same number at a higher average price throughout the year. I think that's why Sony has taken a different pricing approach. 

Microsoft makes it's money mostly with the Gamepass and software sales. That said, a permanent pricecut for both of them is way overdue

Have you any proof? Research suggests Sony brings in way more with PS Now. Also how many gamepass subs were bought with trials or insane deals? 



01/22/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+1) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 47 (+4) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 78 (+8) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 91 (+3) - 239.99$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 94 (R) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :



PS4 : 58 + 23 + 7 = 88 points (+23) ; XBO : 10 points (+3) ; NS : 150 + 86 = 236 points (+3)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (-4) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 47 (-15) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 74 (-5) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 145 = 310 points (+-35) ; XBO : 58 + 27 = 85 points (-35) ; NS : 210 + 180 = 390 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 26 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 53 (-2)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 85 (+27)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 132 (-7)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 190 (-5)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 150 + 35 + 6 = 191 points (-5) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 98 + 66 = 164 points (+19)

Overall :

1 - NS : 430.8 points (+21.4) ; Month Average : 440.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 351.4 points (+6.4) ; Month Average : 342.4 points/day ; 0.78 (-)
3 - XBO : 32.5 points (-6.0) ; Month Average : 32.1 points/day ; 0.07 (-)



December :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.71 ; PS4 : 0.55
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.52 ; PS4 : 0.45

Good month overall, XBO overestimation being due to end of the month will be easy to correct next year (by according less importance (points) to sells after December 24).



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Symbios63 said:
December :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.71 ; PS4 : 0.55
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.52 ; PS4 : 0.45

Good month overall, XBO overestimation being due to end of the month will be easy to correct next year (by according less importance (points) to sells after December 24).

So the only months that were way off were October and November.  I agree with others who said that the way preorders are calculated is probably the culprit, as those were heavy preorder months.  I think the preorder "credit" should be reduced and only be given on day of release, not evenly distributed throughout the month.



SW-3707-5131-3911

Man, XBox is struggling bad to start 2019. If RE2 and KH3 don't move consoles this week and next, they have to strongly consider a permanent price drop I would think.



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kenjab said:
Man, XBox is struggling bad to start 2019. If RE2 and KH3 don't move consoles this week and next, they have to strongly consider a permanent price drop I would think.

Rumours are that a discless version is not too far away. It'll be the price drop. Putting a normal one s too close on price would make the new sku pointless.



01/24/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 44 (+3) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (+9) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 99 (R) - 229.99$


Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 94 (R) - 319.99$

PS4 : 64 + 32 = 96 points (+8) ; XBO : 2 points (-8) ; NS : 150 + 92 = 242 points (+6)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (+3) - 399.99$
4 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-5) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 47 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 70 (+4) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 160 = 340 points (+30) ; XBO : 58 + 31 = 89 points (+4) ; NS : 205 + 155 = 360 points (-30)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 63 (-10)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 67 (-41)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 94 (-9)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 108 (+24)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 135 (+55)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 47 + 33 = 164 points (-27) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 88 + 58 = 146 points (-18)

Overall :

1 - NS : 411.6 points (-19.2) ; Month Average : 437.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 336.8 points (-14.6) ; Month Average : 342.2 points/day ; 0.78 (-)
3 - XBO : 25.2 points (-7.3) ; Month Average : 31.6 points/day ; 0.07 (-)



01/25/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (-4) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 31 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 45 (-1) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 68 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 97 (R) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 99 (R) - 229.99$

PS4 : 62 + 33 + 4 = 99 points (+3) ; XBO : 0 points (-2) ; NS : 130 + 90 = 220 points (-22)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 17 (-6) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 64 (-17) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 89 (-19) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 130 = 295 points (-45) ; XBO : 37 + 12 = 49 points (-40) ; NS : 205 + 145 = 350 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 57 (+6)
2 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 92 (+16)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 126 (-32)
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 151 (-16)

Out of Top 100 :

2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 67 (-41)

PS4 : 60 + 25 = 85 points (-79) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 94 + 38 = 132 points (-14)

Overall :

1 - NS : 378.0 points (-33.6) ; Month Average : 434.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 251.2 points (-85.6) ; Month Average : 337.7 points/day ; 0.78 (-)
3 - XBO : 12.7 points (-12.5) ; Month Average : 30.7 points/day ; 0.07 (-)