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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Ryng_Tolu said:
20 million is super pessimist for RDR2, and also unrealistic to be honest.
25 million is still very low but we are talking now.

Really, 30 million to me is conservate. I don't think people realize how much 600K first week in UK at retail alone are those days... The game will also surely have strong legs.

600k is nothing special for large AAA games. FIFA and COD do that almost every year.

I'm expecting 5m fw and 17m this year. So 13m more lifetime with pc sales seems reasonable.

Also let's not forget that MS and Sony are aiming for backward compatibility next gen so RDR2 will probably just get a graphics and framerate update instead of people having to rebuy the game like with GTAV.



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globalisateur said:
Considering the harsh user critics about bad gameplay / controls and the lack of fun I don't see how RDR2 could sell more than 20 millions.

User critics don't mean squat, lol.



JRPGfan said:
Madword said:

Only just, if the Xbox sale is still on this week then it will surely pass it?

Sale last 2 more days... Im not sure if XB1 will be ahead of PS4, but it does... wow, PS4 marketing for RDR2 totally wasted.

Also seems like Rockstar used a shitty type of checkerboarding techique too.
Hopefully PS4 doesnt do marketing with them again if its just gonna be wasted like this, and the devs. dont even optimise things right for the PS4 when it has marketing deal.

The $100 off with Red Dead deal lasts until November 3rd.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Megiddo said:
globalisateur said:
Considering the harsh user critics about bad gameplay / controls and the lack of fun I don't see how RDR2 could sell more than 20 millions.

User critics don't mean squat, lol.

Seems like a GTA type game in terms of some people being negative to the game while everyone else just plays it and enjoys it.

I don't see how it won't sell more than 20m and you are right, user critics dont mean squat.

My son was at a remote workplace yesterday and he overheard a guy asking his boss to be paid earlier so he could go out and buy it. The boss then said go buy two copies cause I want one as well... RDR is like the first, its going to do well because of word of mouth and because its done better at launch will definitely sell more than the previous version. So 20m is very likely imho.

Also though some people will hate the game and complain about the clunky controls (and it is clunky), just hearing my daughter laugh all the time at the emergent gameplay and silly things that happen, the world is full of stuff and that will keep people talking for a long time. Just need time to play it more myself now :(



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

10/30/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 23 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 44 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 45 (+10) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 80 (-13) - 299.99$
5 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb - 98 (R) - 484.95$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 69 (-37) - TP

PS4 : 0 point (-) ; XBO : 21 + 3 =24 points (-10) ; NS : 106 + 64 + 62 = 232 points (+6)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+32) - 299.99$
2 (+5) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 4 (+50) - 299.99$
3 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (+37) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (+30) - 299.99$
5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 13 (R) - 359.99$
6 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 14 (+17) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 20 (+21) - 299.99$
8 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 46 (+31) - 499.99$
9 (-5) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 52 (-14) - 499.99$
10 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 68 (-2) - 299.99$
11 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 70 (-13) - 299.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb - 76 (R) - 499.99$
13 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 85 (R) - 499.99$ - November 9th

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 145 + 60 = 410 points (+212) ; XBO : 180 + 115 + 49 + 33 + 25 = 402 points (+143) ; NS : 195 + 185 + 150 + 31 = 561 points (+404)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (-2) - November 16th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 6 (+1)
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (P) - 10 (+3)
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 12 (-4)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb + RDR2 (P) - 20 (+4)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (D) - 36 (-4)
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (D) - 44 (-5)
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 49 (-9)
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (P) - 50 (+7)
11 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (P) - 63 (-2)
12 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 79 (+14)
13 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 84 (+4)
14 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (D) - 87 (-19)
15 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (SE) - 91 (+5)
16 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 101 (+30)
17 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 117 (R) - 299.99$ - November 20th
18 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (UE) - 123 (-)
19 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 124 (-)
20 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 - 146 (-18)
21 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 162 (+34)
22 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (-30)
23 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb PUBG + RDR2 - 193 (-12)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 72 + 68 = 325 points (+8) ; XBO : 190 + 165 + 125 + 108 + 102 + 102 + 88 + 64 + 60 + 38 + 28 + 8 + 4 = 1082 points (-51) ; NS : 210 + 200 + 50 + 35 + 20 = 515 points (+33)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1008.9 points (+118.6) ; Month Average : 830.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1623.2 points (-39.5) ; Month Average : 589.8 points/day ; 0.71 (+0.05)
3 - PS4 : 526.7 points (+50.4) ; Month Average : 569.5 points/day ; 0.69 (-)


Best buy totally upside down, current list makes more sense though...



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And the XB1 pulls ahead of the PS4! With a deal like that one I would be more upset if they didn't pull ahead. And I am not sure why I saw someone in here say it looked like the PS4 was having a bad month lol. That was a very odd statement. This month is looking good for all 3 systems! Very nice! The holidays are definitely the most exciting!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

XB1 got ahead of the PS4..... wow.



How can MS get away with bundling RDR2 with all of their XBOs? I really don’t understand how this isn’t a legal issue, considering Sony and Rockstar have a deal for marketing and bundling with PS4. MS has been doing this for years, but they started off subtle to avoid legal issues (e.g. Destiny fragrance ad for Destiny 1) and now have become very aggressive where they are actually creating their own bundle. If they can get away with this on this level, what is the point of third party partnerships?



pitzy272 said:
How can MS get away with bundling RDR2 with all of their XBOs? I really don’t understand how this isn’t a legal issue, considering Sony and Rockstar have a deal for marketing and bundling with PS4. MS has been doing this for years, but they started off subtle to avoid legal issues (e.g. Destiny fragrance ad for Destiny 1) and now have become very aggressive where they are actually creating their own bundle. If they can get away with this on this level, what is the point of third party partnerships?

Because there's no deal between MS and Rockstar.  MS is just eating the cost of that $100 discount if someone bundles it with Red Dead.  It's a promotion organized with retailers.  Sony can do the same thing.  They just haven't needed to.



pitzy272 said:
How can MS get away with bundling RDR2 with all of their XBOs? I really don’t understand how this isn’t a legal issue, considering Sony and Rockstar have a deal for marketing and bundling with PS4. MS has been doing this for years, but they started off subtle to avoid legal issues (e.g. Destiny fragrance ad for Destiny 1) and now have become very aggressive where they are actually creating their own bundle. If they can get away with this on this level, what is the point of third party partnerships?

Its not a bundle, it's a discount.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.