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Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

Possible, but not guaranteed. I think it'll be close. The XBO should sell upwards of 30M. Meanwhile, if I had to take a guess for the Switch basing if off of last year's sales and the typical sales curve for a Nintendo console, I think it too could sell at least 30M.



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LipeJJ said:
SWORDF1SH said:

It's not a given and he's entitled to his opinion. Do we have to have every Nintendo thread being a circle jerk. It's not like he's being unreasonable with his opinion .

Who is he? I'm not meantioning anyone, but rather Sony fans as a group (who are always negative about Nintendo, at least on this forum).

It's pretty obvious who you're aiming this at. Even a simple process of elimination spells it out. 



SWORDF1SH said:
LipeJJ said:

Who is he? I'm not meantioning anyone, but rather Sony fans as a group (who are always negative about Nintendo, at least on this forum).

It's pretty obvious who you're aiming this at. Even a simple process of elimination spells it out. 

Um... not really. It really is a wide mention, not specific to only one person. 

What is clear is your intentions with this thread, tho. Btw, not posting here anymore, if you want to talk to me, there is a PM function.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

SWORDF1SH said:
LipeJJ said:
Ugh... I thought this was a given, but after reading the usual Sony fan response to this thread, I guess I'll tag this for future crow.

It's not a given and he's entitled to his opinion. Do we have to have every Nintendo thread being a circle jerk. It's not like he's being unreasonable with his opinion .

Did he post NPD numbers to support his claim that Xbox One sold more than Switch in January and February combined?

EDIT: Wait, I reviewed the posts and the context was different from what I had remembered.

It's just faulty logic on his part because the full set of sales data differs from his cherry-picked sample.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 10 March 2018

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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LipeJJ said:
SWORDF1SH said:

It's pretty obvious who you're aiming this at. Even a simple process of elimination spells it out. 

Um... not really. It really is a wide mention, not specific to only one person. 

What is clear is your intentions with this thread, tho. Btw, not posting here anymore, if you want to talk to me, there is a PM function.

Considering there's only 2(ish) PS4 fans in here and one doesn't agree the Switch will overtake Xbox, it's obvious. 

And enlighten me what's my intention is here? I think Switch will overtake Xbox but I can also see potential for good debates because how the whole situation is set up. I'm not up for trying to mute anybody because I don't agree with them. It's a topic to debate.



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Shadow1980 said:
Possible, but not guaranteed. I think it'll be close. The XBO should sell upwards of 30M. Meanwhile, if I had to take a guess for the Switch basing if off of last year's sales and the typical sales curve for a Nintendo console, I think it too could sell at least 30M.

you must be a sony fan.



RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

It's not a given and he's entitled to his opinion. Do we have to have every Nintendo thread being a circle jerk. It's not like he's being unreasonable with his opinion .

Did he post NPD numbers to support his claim that Xbox One sold more than Switch in January and February combined?

EDIT: Wait, I reviewed the posts and the context was different from what I had remembered.

It's just faulty logic on his part because the full set of sales data differs from his cherry-picked sample.

heh not interested in arguing with you. stop trying to force your logic on anybody who doesn't agree with you.



quickrick said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Switch will not slow down any time soon. The sheer amount of system selling games being released will see to that. That's before you consider price drops to keep up good momentum and Nintendo's ability to appeal to a broad market. 

We'll see. people were saying the same thing with 3ds, wait till pokemon and animal crossing, after it was doing amazing its first 2 years.

Idk how many times it needs to be stated that Switch and 3DS are two seperate systems and appear to be on different trajectories.

3DS after 11 months was at 4.27 million and Switch after 11 months is at ~5.15 million in the US.

In Feb/March 2012, 3DS did 260k & 220k while Switch looks to do ~300k in each.

That puts 3DS at ~4.75 million and Switch at ~5.75 million after 13 months.

 

The fact that Switch is tracking over 20% ahead of 3DS at nearly twice the price should be all you need to realize that Switch is most likely going to blow past 3DS in the US.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

We'll see. people were saying the same thing with 3ds, wait till pokemon and animal crossing, after it was doing amazing its first 2 years.

Idk how many times it needs to be stated that Switch and 3DS are two seperate systems and appear to be on different trajectories.

3DS after 11 months was at 4.27 million and Switch after 11 months is at ~5.15 million in the US.

In Feb/March 2012, 3DS did 260k & 220k while Switch looks to do ~300k in each.

That puts 3DS at ~4.75 million and Switch at ~5.75 million after 13 months.

 

The fact that Switch is tracking over 20% ahead of 3DS at nearly twice the price should be all you need to realize that Switch is most likely going to blow past 3DS in the US.

its going to beat 3ds but beating xbox is not a sure thing, especially with how nintendo consoles usually lose momentum much faster. 



quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Idk how many times it needs to be stated that Switch and 3DS are two seperate systems and appear to be on different trajectories.

3DS after 11 months was at 4.27 million and Switch after 11 months is at ~5.15 million in the US.

In Feb/March 2012, 3DS did 260k & 220k while Switch looks to do ~300k in each.

That puts 3DS at ~4.75 million and Switch at ~5.75 million after 13 months.

 

The fact that Switch is tracking over 20% ahead of 3DS at nearly twice the price should be all you need to realize that Switch is most likely going to blow past 3DS in the US.

its going to beat 3ds but beating xbox is not a sure thing, especially with how nintendo consoles usually lose momentum much faster. 

Nintendo consoles lose momentum faster than Xbox based on what exactly?

Xbox

Launch-Nov 2001

Peak-2004 (3rd year)

Replaced-Nov 2005

360

Launch-Nov 2005

Peak-2011 (6th year)

Replaced-Nov 2013

What does a normal cycle for Xbox look like?

 

Here are the Nintendo consoles since 2001

GBA

Launch-June 2001

Peak-2003 (3rd year)

Replaced-Nov 2004

 

GC

Launch-Nov 2001

Peak-2003 (2nd year)

Replaced-Nov 2006

 

DS

Launch-Nov 2004

Peak-2008 or 2009 (4th/5th year)

Replaced-March 2011

Wii

Launch-Nov 2006

Peak-2008 (2nd year)

Replaced-Nov 2012

 

3DS

Launch-March 2011

Peak-2011 (1st year)

Replaced-March 2017

 

Wii U

Launch-Nov 2012

Peak-2014 (2nd year)

Replaced-March 2017

 

 

Based on that when does a normal Xbox console lose momentum and when does a normal Nintendo console lose momentum?

If Switch was just a home console than you could make a good guess but its also a handheld which are not nearly as consistent.

 

Saying Nintendo consoles normally lose momentum faster than Xbox consoles is based on absolutely nothing.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.