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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch has sold-in (shipped) 14.86 million, 3DS 72 million, Nintendo's FY 2017 Nine Months Earnings

zorg1000 on 31 January 2018
method114 said:
So is Xbox looking at becoming the third console. If the switch doesn't stop selling like this they'll pass Xbox in another 2 years.

Yep, Switch should outsell Xbox One by the end of 2019.

End of 2017

NSW-13.8m, XBO-36.4m

End of 2018

NSW-~33m, XBO-~44m

End of 2019

NSW-~55m, XBO-~50m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Magnus on 31 January 2018
Ka-pi96 said:
Magnus said:

The people who play GTA and FIFA are casuals who follow the hardcore gamers who buy consoles based on exclusives and expectations. If hardcore gamers didn't buy the PS4 in droves because it's a Playstation then casuals would play GTA and FIFA on PC. In fact Xbox One has pathetic sales now because XBox games are also on PC now.

Because they'd buy a $1000 PC to play a game that a $200 console can play? Dood... WTF?

A PC is much more useful than a console and you don't need a $1000 PC to play PC games. You just need a $1000 PC to make these games look good, and they will look better than on any console. A console is just a box you are buying to have the privilege to buy games. The only reason that people buy an exorbitant price for a video game box is for exclusives and expectations of more exclusives.



Jranation on 31 January 2018

Can we bump all those Switch predictions made before April?



Pocky Lover Boy! 

JRPGfan on 31 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
method114 said:
So is Xbox looking at becoming the third console. If the switch doesn't stop selling like this they'll pass Xbox in another 2 years.

Yep, Switch should outsell Xbox One by the end of 2019.

End of 2017

NSW-13.8m, XBO-36.4m

End of 2018

NSW-~33m, XBO-~44m

End of 2019

NSW-~55m, XBO-~50m

^ I could actually see that happending (20m + 22m year's for Switch).

End of 2017:
PS4 ~71-72m

End of 2018 (~20m year):
PS4 ~91-92m

End of 2019 (~18m year):
PS4 ~109m-110m

 

~110m PS4s, ~55m NSWs, ~50m XB1

Then a semi slow year in 2020, and at the end of it, we get a Playstation 5 & Xbox Two.

Then in 2021, Nintendo give us a Switch 2.



xMetroid on 31 January 2018
JRPGfan said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep, Switch should outsell Xbox One by the end of 2019.

End of 2017

NSW-13.8m, XBO-36.4m

End of 2018

NSW-~33m, XBO-~44m

End of 2019

NSW-~55m, XBO-~50m

^ I could actually see that happending (20m + 22m year's for Switch).

End of 2017:
PS4 ~71-72m

End of 2018 (~20m year):
PS4 ~91-92m

End of 2019 (~18m year):
PS4 ~109m-110m

 

~110m PS4s, ~55m NSWs, ~50m XB1

Then a semi slow year in 2020, and at the end of it, we get a Playstation 5 & Xbox Two.

Then in 2021, Nintendo give us a Switch 2.

Yea Nintendo are going to kill a probably 80 million install base console after 4 years. No way it will die instantly like this 2 years after having (most likely) a year of 20+ million units. Even the U stayed on the market longer and it flopped hard. Worst case scenario it will do 6 years.



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zorg1000 on 31 January 2018
JRPGfan said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep, Switch should outsell Xbox One by the end of 2019.

End of 2017

NSW-13.8m, XBO-36.4m

End of 2018

NSW-~33m, XBO-~44m

End of 2019

NSW-~55m, XBO-~50m

^ I could actually see that happending (20m + 22m year's for Switch).

End of 2017:
PS4 ~71-72m

End of 2018 (~20m year):
PS4 ~91-92m

End of 2019 (~18m year):
PS4 ~109m-110m

 

~110m PS4s, ~55m NSWs, ~50m XB1

Then a semi slow year in 2020, and at the end of it, we get a Playstation 5 & Xbox Two.

Then in 2021, Nintendo give us a Switch 2.

Sony announced 73.6 sold at the end of 2017.

I personally think PS4 will see a drop back to 2015/2016 levels this year so about 17-18m then another ~15m in 2019 so ~105m at the end of 2019.

 

Also i cant see Switch 2 in 2021, thats only a 4-4.5 year cycle which is much too soon for a successful device.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JRPGfan on 31 January 2018
xMetroid said:
JRPGfan said:

^ I could actually see that happending (20m + 22m year's for Switch).

End of 2017:
PS4 ~71-72m

End of 2018 (~20m year):
PS4 ~91-92m

End of 2019 (~18m year):
PS4 ~109m-110m

 

~110m PS4s, ~55m NSWs, ~50m XB1

Then a semi slow year in 2020, and at the end of it, we get a Playstation 5 & Xbox Two.

Then in 2021, Nintendo give us a Switch 2.

Yea Nintendo are going to kill a probably 80 million install base console after 4 years. No way it will die instantly like this 2 years after having (most likely) a year of 20+ million units. Even the U stayed on the market longer and it flopped hard. Worst case scenario it will do 6 years.

2017,2018,2019,2020,2021 = 5 years.

I think they will, so they can still get ports of 3rd party games.
Dont think you ll see PS5/Xb2 ports to the current switch.

also if the switch 2, has full backwards compatability, I dont think it ll be a issue.



Cloudman on 31 January 2018

Well, I was quite wrong on Mario Odyssey, as well as most of my other predictions. The only one rather close was Zelda. I'll need to switch up my numbers for next time. Also, so glad XC2 crossed a mil. Hopefully it continues to get a lot more.



 

              

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StarDoor on 31 January 2018
JRPGfan said:
xMetroid said:

Yea Nintendo are going to kill a probably 80 million install base console after 4 years. No way it will die instantly like this 2 years after having (most likely) a year of 20+ million units. Even the U stayed on the market longer and it flopped hard. Worst case scenario it will do 6 years.

2017,2018,2019,2020,2021 = 5 years.

I think they will, so they can still get ports of 3rd party games.
Dont think you ll see PS5/Xb2 ports to the current switch.

also if the switch 2, has full backwards compatability, I dont think it ll be a issue.

Switch launched in March, and the successor will presumably launch no later than November, so your situation gives a maximum of 4 years and 8 months. Compare this to Wii U, which got 4 years and 4 months.

There doesn't seem to be much logic in thinking that the massively successful Switch will be killed off nearly as quickly as the failed Wii U.

Last edited by StarDoor - on 31 January 2018

xMetroid on 31 January 2018
StarDoor said:
JRPGfan said:

2017,2018,2019,2020,2021 = 5 years.

I think they will, so they can still get ports of 3rd party games.
Dont think you ll see PS5/Xb2 ports to the current switch.

also if the switch 2, has full backwards compatability, I dont think it ll be a issue.

Switch launched in March, and the successor will presumably launch no later than November, so your situation gives a maximum of 4 years and 8 months. Compare this to Wii U, which got 4 years and 4 months.

There doesn't seem to be much logic in thinking that the massively successful Switch will be killed off nearly as quickly as the failed Wii U.

And why would they kill it right before the holiday season lmao ? 

Anyway its too soon to know about that but seeing how healthy the ecosystem is we will probably have a second Zelda and Mario 3D. I think the switch can easily do 7 years if well managed.