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Japan sales (Week 3): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - January 15-21, 2018

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Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

I'm talking about nintendo shipped numbers which will be reported in 6 days.

Probably will be higher number than 13.5m, analyst predict 14-15m shipped at end of December.

i just don't see it with the shortages,  if nintendo said  sold through 10 million as of the DEC 10th. NPD tracks till the of 26 of november till the 30 of december. i could be easily wrong, but at best they sold 3.5 million in December, but we would have deduct 9 days of sales WW, and december is only good till the 25th so that would put them at 12 million-12.5 million sold through, they wouldn't have any shortages if they shipped 14 million.

Last edited by quickrick - on 25 January 2018

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quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Probably will be higher number than 13.5m, analyst predict 14-15m shipped at end of December.

i just don't see it with the shortages,  if nintendo said  sold through 10 million as of the DEC 10th. NPD tracks tell the of 26 of november till the 30 of december. i could be easily wrong, but at best they sold 3.5 million in December, but we would have deduct 9 days of sales WW, and december is only good till the 25th so that would put them at 12 million-12.5 million sold through, they wouldn't have any shortages if they shipped 14 million.

Point that they maybe shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesnt mean that shortages are totally over, shortages means that demand is higher than what Nintendo can produce and shipped, you don't have exact number that proves that, and this kind of strong shortages only exist in Japan. Sold through and shipped number are not same thing.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 25 January 2018

Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

i just don't see it with the shortages,  if nintendo said  sold through 10 million as of the DEC 10th. NPD tracks tell the of 26 of november till the 30 of december. i could be easily wrong, but at best they sold 3.5 million in December, but we would have deduct 9 days of sales WW, and december is only good till the 25th so that would put them at 12 million-12.5 million sold through, they wouldn't have any shortages if they shipped 14 million.

Point that they maybe shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesnt mean that shortages are totally over, shortages means that demand is higher than what Nintendo can produce and shipped, you don't have exact number that proves that, and this kind of strong shortages only exist in Japan. Sold through and shipped number are not same thing.

my point is there is evidence suggesting they didn't, doesn't mean its fact, and no need to get defensive over it.of course i know the difference between shipped and sold through.  



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Point that they maybe shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesnt mean that shortages are totally over, shortages means that demand is higher than what Nintendo can produce and shipped, you don't have exact number that proves that, and this kind of strong shortages only exist in Japan. Sold through and shipped number are not same thing.

my point is there is evidence suggesting they didn't, doesn't mean its fact, and no need to get defensive over it.of course i know the difference between shipped and sold through.  

It's not point about defence but about facts, point that maybe they shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesn't mean that stock problems are completely over.

In any case we will know exactly in less than one week, but it's expected that Nintendo shipped 14-15m as December 31.



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

my point is there is evidence suggesting they didn't, doesn't mean its fact, and no need to get defensive over it.of course i know the difference between shipped and sold through.  

It's not point about defence but about facts, point that maybe they shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesn't mean that stock problems are completely over.

In any case we will know exactly in less than one week, but it's expected that Nintendo shipped 14-15m as December 31.

ok  nintendo know's January is a great month in japan for sales, look at Vgcharts sale through number which are probably very close since it's only 2 weeks of data, we know nintendo numbers for december 10, is it logical for japan to have shortages, because somebody really messed with with shipping then, because after the 24 in europe and US, sales are nothing special, why would they have so many consoles sitting there and shortages in japan, just doesn't make sense to me. i think 14 shipped is the max.

Last edited by quickrick - on 25 January 2018

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quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

It's not point about defence but about facts, point that maybe they shipped 7-8m in Q4 doesn't mean that stock problems are completely over.

In any case we will know exactly in less than one week, but it's expected that Nintendo shipped 14-15m as December 31.

ok  nintendo know's January is a great month in japan for sales, look at Vgcharts sale through number which are probably very close since it's only 2 weeks of data, we know nintendo numbers for december 10, is it logical for japan to have shortages, because somebody really messed with with shipping then, because after the 24 in europe and US, sales are nothing special, why would they have so many consoles sitting there and shortages in japan, just doesn't make sense to me. 

It's far logical  to priorities holiday season and December and to ship everything they have for that period than to care about January. You cant say that sales after 24. in Europe and US are nothing special because you don't know that (VGC numbers are not accurate), with ofical infos we know that Switch is selling great in US and in most of Europe. Do you know for sure that "so many consoles are just siting there", beacuse fact is that Switch is selling great on evre market, if they would pull consoles from US or Europe than they will probably had shortages in US and Europe.

I am pretty sure plenty of things about Switch dont makes sense to you, especially when comes to how much great Switch is selling and you constantly trying to spin off Switch success and to find something negative about it. :)



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

ok  nintendo know's January is a great month in japan for sales, look at Vgcharts sale through number which are probably very close since it's only 2 weeks of data, we know nintendo numbers for december 10, is it logical for japan to have shortages, because somebody really messed with with shipping then, because after the 24 in europe and US, sales are nothing special, why would they have so many consoles sitting there and shortages in japan, just doesn't make sense to me. 

It's far logical to be to priorities holiday season and December and to ship everything they have for that period than to care about January. You cant say that sales after 24. in Europe and US are nothing special because you don't know that (VGC numbers are not accurate), with ofical infos we know that Switch is selling great in US and in most of Europe. Do you know for sure that "so many consoles are just siting there", beacuse fact is that Switch is selling great on evre market, if they would pull consoles from US or Europe than they will probably had shortages in US and Europe.

I am pretty sure plenty of things about Switch dont makes sense to you, especially when comes to how much great Switch is selling. :)

this is a well known fact now, the decline in january from december, is huge just look at  every console sales for the past 5 years, January has been a slow month for years now. DEcember is huge because of Xmas people wanting to buy gifts for the 25th. you do know no we have official numbers, from nintendo, media create and NPD, so vgchartz job is very easy, it's very basic estimates



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

It's far logical to be to priorities holiday season and December and to ship everything they have for that period than to care about January. You cant say that sales after 24. in Europe and US are nothing special because you don't know that (VGC numbers are not accurate), with ofical infos we know that Switch is selling great in US and in most of Europe. Do you know for sure that "so many consoles are just siting there", beacuse fact is that Switch is selling great on evre market, if they would pull consoles from US or Europe than they will probably had shortages in US and Europe.

I am pretty sure plenty of things about Switch dont makes sense to you, especially when comes to how much great Switch is selling. :)

this is a well known fact now, the decline in january from december, is huge just look at  every console sales for the past 5 years, January has been a slow month for years now. DEcember is huge because of Xmas people wanting to buy gifts for the 25th. you do know no we have official numbers, from nintendo, media create and NPD, so vgchartz job is very easy, it's very basic estimates

And that's exactly why Nintendo wanted to ship everything they had for holiday season and December and pritorites that over January shipments. Sales can be good for January sales or despite its January, you cant say they are nothing Switch sales after 24. (December assuming) are nothing special because you don't know that, we only have Japanese sales with huge stock problems but despite that Switch will finish month with around 250-300k in Japan.



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

this is a well known fact now, the decline in january from december, is huge just look at  every console sales for the past 5 years, January has been a slow month for years now. DEcember is huge because of Xmas people wanting to buy gifts for the 25th. you do know no we have official numbers, from nintendo, media create and NPD, so vgchartz job is very easy, it's very basic estimates

And that's exactly why Nintendo wanted to ship everything they had for holiday season and December and pritorites that over January shipments. Sales can be good for January sales or despite its January, you cant say they are nothing Switch sales after 24. (December assuming) are nothing special because you don't know that, we only have Japanese sales with huge stock problems.

its nots switch only, its for every console dude, people waste all there money on gifts, and thats why January is a slow month for consoles. anyway this is not going any where we''ll know soon enough if my theory is correct. everything is digital now so nintendo sees sales in real time, and ship accordingly, we will find out soon enough.



TheBraveGallade said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch must be really supply constrained. PS4 sold more hardware, but the top of the software charts is full of Switch titles.

Its not like they could pull units from elsewhere. With the recent mainland europe numbers, I don't think they can afford to pull out units from there either.

And its FAR more important to have stable supply in europe and NA because at this point switch already sold half the units the ps4 has LTD. Ergo, its already rooted in the japanese market.

 

Also if they are stocking up for a chinese realese...

You make a good point about NA and Europe.  It wouldn't be wise of them to be stocking up for a Chinese release though when they are still supply constrained elsewhere.  There is a chance they are doing this, but I would bet against it.