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Global Hardware Sales 16 December 2017

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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Normchacho said:
God I love watching people go fucking rabid anytime someone says something less than excellent about the Switch.

Actually it's ones saying things like "Switch will fall off a cliff in 2018" without any proof whatsoever that start all the trouble. 

1. It is fair to say that a prediction like that is equally ridiculous. You certainly have a point there. Because not really knowing what the future for Switch holds works both ways.

2. That first line isn't so much about how crazy some predictions have been, that's more the rest of the post. The first line is about how strongly people react when people make predictions that don't line up with the more positive ones. It's a little silly.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

To play devil's advocate, it's looking like the first half of the year could be a massive game drought for Switch, and it has no real system sellers yet confirmed for this year.

Devil's advocate is obligated to be intellectually honest.

 

You're definitely not using that phrase correctly.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

Normchacho said:
RolStoppable said:

You are on record to confidently make predictions and draw conclusions about the Switch's future with much less information being available. But now that we have more information than one year ago and things didn't play out as you thought, you are changing your stance to "we can't know"? That's rich.

Am I? I'm pretty sure as far as the Switch goes I've said that I don't think it will outsell the Wii, I might have mentioned that I think the Switch will end up somewhere between 70-90 million units, but I've never tried to defend either of those as being any more than a guess. The only really concrete prediction or point I've made about Switch sales as far as I can remember is saying that it might be tough for the Switch to beat the PS4s first year. Even then it was a "eeehhh I don't know, that seems unlikely" and not the "Haha what?!?! You don't think the Switch is going to sell 100+ million units and crush everything forever?!?!? LOLOLOLOL" That this thread (and site) has been full of.

Yes, you are. It isn't solely about making predictions yourself, but also which side of an argument you support and defend.

When you do something like you are doing in this thread - portraying the people who think that Switch will sell very well as a ridiculous mob - then you become guilty by association. You don't have a neutral stance on this matter, hence why you portray the doubters as reasonable and the opposition as unreasonable. You explicitly state that this thread is an example of the behavior that you see, but here the main point of contention is not "Will Switch sell 100m+?" like you say, it's "Will Switch's year 2 be better than its year 1?" - And you portray the people who say that successful consoles don't peak in year 1 as rabid, even though all historic sales records show that consoles with a healthy first year like Switch do not peak in year 1.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Normchacho said:
RolStoppable said:

You are on record to confidently make predictions and draw conclusions about the Switch's future with much less information being available. But now that we have more information than one year ago and things didn't play out as you thought, you are changing your stance to "we can't know"? That's rich.

Am I? I'm pretty sure as far as the Switch goes I've said that I don't think it will outsell the Wii, I might have mentioned that I think the Switch will end up somewhere between 70-90 million units, but I've never tried to defend either of those as being any more than a guess. The only really concrete prediction or point I've made about Switch sales as far as I can remember is saying that it might be tough for the Switch to beat the PS4s first year. Even then it was a "eeehhh I don't know, that seems unlikely" and not the "Haha what?!?! You don't think the Switch is going to sell 100+ million units and crush everything forever?!?!? LOLOLOLOL" That this thread (and site) has been full of.

Well I don't know what you mean by "confidently predict"exactly, but "I don't think Switch will outsell the Wii" is a pretty long term prediction at least. Switch will most likely be on the market for at least 5 years.

Last edited by Hiku - on 10 January 2018

RolStoppable said:
Normchacho said:

Am I? I'm pretty sure as far as the Switch goes I've said that I don't think it will outsell the Wii, I might have mentioned that I think the Switch will end up somewhere between 70-90 million units, but I've never tried to defend either of those as being any more than a guess. The only really concrete prediction or point I've made about Switch sales as far as I can remember is saying that it might be tough for the Switch to beat the PS4s first year. Even then it was a "eeehhh I don't know, that seems unlikely" and not the "Haha what?!?! You don't think the Switch is going to sell 100+ million units and crush everything forever?!?!? LOLOLOLOL" That this thread (and site) has been full of.

Yes, you are. It isn't solely about making predictions yourself, but also which side of an argument you support and defend.

When you do something like you are doing in this thread - portraying the people who think that Switch will sell very well as a ridiculous mob - then you become guilty by association. You don't have a neutral stance on this matter, hence why you portray the doubters as reasonable and the opposition as unreasonable. You explicitly state that this thread is an example of the behavior that you see, but here the main point of contention is not "Will Switch sell 100m+?" like you say, it's "Will Switch's year 2 be better than its year 1?" - And you portray the people who say that successful consoles don't peak in year 1 as rabid, even though all historic sales records show that consoles with a healthy first year like Switch do not peak in year 1.

You aren't reaching in the slightest.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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DonFerrari said:

You aren't reaching in the slightest.

Don, I know that the mod team is frustrated with the reports you submit. Your judgment of situations is insufficient. You are too biased and thus prejudice gets in your way all too often.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Normchacho said:
God I love watching people go fucking rabid anytime someone says something less than excellent about the Switch.

Actually it's ones saying things like "Switch will fall off a cliff in 2018" without any proof whatsoever that start all the trouble. 

And i too say its pretty possible that the switch 2018 sales can decrease because the lineup wont be that good like 2017. There wont be a new Zelda, Splatoon or Mario ( including kart and rabbits ) this year aka 3 of Nintendos biggest titles ever. 3rd party games wont move much untis lol even when they bring pokemon and animal crossing this year, what have they left for 2019?



RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

You aren't reaching in the slightest.

Don, I know that the mod team is frustrated with the reports you submit. Your judgment of situations is insufficient. You are too biased and thus prejudice gets in your way all too often.

i'm sure you, and many people doubted the ps4 early on. pretty sure many people were saying ps4 sales wont last, i don't believe they were biased some people just don't have  positive out look, and believed consoles were a shrinking market, not everyone is biased or prejudice, because they don't believe switch strong sales won't continue. 



quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

Don, I know that the mod team is frustrated with the reports you submit. Your judgment of situations is insufficient. You are too biased and thus prejudice gets in your way all too often.

i'm sure you, and many people doubted the ps4 early on. pretty sure many people were saying ps4 sales wont last, i don't believe they were biased some people just don't have  positive out, and believed consoles were a shrinking market, not everyone is biased or prejudice, becuae they don't believe switch sales won't continue. 

Oh sure, how fast a console will be selling in year 1 is commonly over- or underestimated because there's no sales data whatsoever for any console before it launched. Personally, I was too low on PS4's first year, but then year 2 and 3 performed worse than the sales curve I had in mind before launch, and year 4 was surprisingly high in relation to year 2 and 3; I had pegged the PS4 at ~120 lifetime and while the individual years differed from my expectations, they evened out and thus make 120m a value that's not going to be far off.

But the comparable situation that you need to look at here is if there were people who said that PS4's year 2 would be down from its first year. There weren't any drawn out arguments over that, because there was nobody that insisted such a thing would happen. You are in a rather unique position with your claims, but you aren't alone as far as Switch is concerned.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Pillertriller said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Actually it's ones saying things like "Switch will fall off a cliff in 2018" without any proof whatsoever that start all the trouble. 

And i too say its pretty possible that the switch 2018 sales can decrease because the lineup wont be that good like 2017. There wont be a new Zelda, Splatoon or Mario ( including kart and rabbits ) this year aka 3 of Nintendos biggest titles ever. 3rd party games wont move much untis lol even when they bring pokemon and animal crossing this year, what have they left for 2019?

I feel like this has been repeated ad nauseam, but there's 2D Mario, MK9, 2D Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon remake (Ruby/Sapphire sold like 12m on 3DS). Pretty sure Nintendo would do an Odyssey 2, and a follow up to BoTW wouldn't be out of the question. That's just their top tier. We also have 2nd tier stuff like Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Kirby, Yoshi, Arms 2, Pikmin 4, Donkey Kong.

 

Rockstar has been working with Nintendo, rumors have a GTA V port coming, so possibly GTA 6 will make its way to Switch as well. 

 

There's so many possibilities, while I don't think Switch will do Wii numbers (the hype was insane for that, I dont we'll see that type of hype for a system ever again) I do see around 80-85m for Switch.

 

The fact that Switch did so well at $299 with no deals for the first year is such a positive sign for the future. Once they start price dropping and bundling, the momentum will increase IMO.