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Kimishima hopes to sell over 20M Nintendo Switch units next FY.

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fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

You cant say its not possible, I mean hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year, but in any case I defiantly expacting at least Animal Crossing or Pokemon. Talking about price cut thats not certain, but at least we probably start seeing bundles with on game for current price point.

Well its not like that everyone that has interest in those games bouth Switch this year, those games will be one of biggest reasons for selling Switch not only next year but in following years also, there is reason why Nintendo hevy hitters usually have great legs.

Posible biggest hevy hitters for next year are Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing and Pokemon, and Retros game and some new strong more casual IP. I personally expecting combination of 2 from first 3 games that I mentioned. And we probably have some of those announcements already in few weeks in next Direct.

@Bold Did you even read the rest of my post ? 

Also it depends, people that are interested in those games would mostly buy the system in the 12 month window cause at that point the said software stops driving hardware sales altogether and becomes another game in the backlog to purchase once the barrier to entry (buying the system) has been cleared ... (consumers straight up do not buy according to the future, they buy according to their current needs and that's why most businesses that try to predict the future fail) 

Great legs =/= constant hardware seller since most of the games with "great" legs don't actually increase the baseline of system sales ... 

Yes I did, and like I wrote, "hardly that anybody could predict back in January though that Switch would sell so great in its first year", plenty of people back than in Janaury would easily said that is not possible that Switch will sell this much in 1st year.

That depends from various reasons, stock problems, peoples financial state at that time, more or less free time for playing, they just want few more games...talking about games, for instance for someone maybe Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey are must have but they want to have onother must have game before they will buy Switch, and with evre new stronger/better game Switch lineup and Switch itself will be more and more attractive platform and more people will buy Switch.

Strong games with great legs are one of main reasons for selling consoles in Nintendo case, games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey in combination with some of future games will be one of main reasons for people for buying Switch.

 

 

bonzobanana said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch is selling good in Europe even if dont have same popularity like it has in US and Japan and thats not something unusual for Nintendo product, also fact is that UK is one of weakest Europe market for Nintendo if we talk about bigger Europe countries. US was always easily strongest market for Nintendo, we don't know currently where Switch sold better in Europe or Japan, but in Japan if look size of country definitely has much bigger popularity and that's expected. But in any case I think that price of Switch need to be on pair of US and Japan and thats 300e instead 330e curently.

According to this very site back in September. France is the clear winner in popularity by far.  Germany and UK have sold a similar amount on a per head basis allowing for the population difference and all 3 countries together are the bulk of Switch sales with 500,000 left to be shared by all other countries including large countries like Spain and Italy. So I really can't see the UK as a weak market for Nintendo but definitely weaker than France with regard the Switch. The majority of countries in Europe are much weaker markets for Nintendo than the UK. With only 2 million reported Switches sold in Europe recently its clear a much weaker market for Switch compared to US and Japan but I don't see how the UK can be seen negatively in that light we have bought many more Switches than most European countries even allowing for population differences. I think retailer apathy was a big factor too in the UK and that is changing as well as so the UK may even go ahead of Germany and France you never know with regard Switch sales. Didn't the Nintendo DS have absolutely huge sales in the UK I seem to remember a time when DS sales were incredibly high which isn't that long ago.

Breaking down the sales by region, the Switch has sold best in the US with 1,740,629 units sold (34%), compared to 1,398,764 units sold in Europe (27%) and 1,200,307 units sold in Japan (23%). Looking more closely at Europe, the console has sold an estimated 225,726 units in the UK, 303,712 units in Germany, and 348,925 units in France.

I dont talk about population of countries but about sales numbers, and you basicly proved my point that UK is one of weakest Europe market for Nintendo if we talk about bigger Europe console markets, and that taking UK sales of Nintendo HW and SW like proof of something is wrong.

Wii and DS were quite popular in UK before PS3/360 start beasting, but Wii U and 3DS not so much compared to other markets, and it seems that with Switch is same.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 31 December 2017

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2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.



curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

GBA, DS & 3DS all received their first revisions about ~1.5 years after launch so a Switch revision in Fall 2018 wouldnt surprise me although i do feel Spring 2019 is more likely.

As for price, im not sure if a permanent price cut will happen but i do expect them to start bundling a game and seeing deals during the holidays. A $249 Mario Kart bundle will do very well next holiday.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

GBA, DS & 3DS all received their first revisions about ~1.5 years after launch so a Switch revision in Fall 2018 wouldnt surprise me although i do feel Spring 2019 is more likely.

As for price, im not sure if a permanent price cut will happen but i do expect them to start bundling a game and seeing deals during the holidays. A $249 Mario Kart bundle will do very well next holiday.

Oh I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying I personally think there's no need for a revision until 2019 as the base model is fine.

A $250 Switch bundled with an appealing game would fly off shelves next holiday season; I feel like their holiday performance this year was hurt somewhat by being $300 when you could get a PS4 for $200.



Nintendo is probably already working on a revision, arf. But they will only release it to increase sales, arf. No need to lower price if sales are steady, arf.



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curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

Problem with that is most of Nintendo's audience lies within nations with very advanced economies (30000+ USD per capita nominal GDP) ... 

Nintendo struggles a lot in poorer region such as Eastern Europe, the rest of East Asia, Western Asia, Latin America and they'll probably continue to struggle against Sony in mainland China too if PS4 ever hits the magical $149 price point just like Hong Kong or Taiwan since Nintendo's only advantage in the censorship process can be circumvented by adding region specific patches ... 



fatslob-:O said:
curl-6 said:

2018 is too early for a hardware revision in my opinion, but they definitely shouldn't do a second holiday season at $300 when the competition is so much cheaper. Once you go to $250 and $200 you reach whole new audiences for whom $300 is too high.

Problem with that is most of Nintendo's audience lies within nations with very advanced economies (30000+ USD per capita nominal GDP) ... 

Nintendo struggles a lot in poorer region such as Eastern Europe, the rest of East Asia, Western Asia, Latin America and they'll probably struggle against Sony in mainland China too if PS4 ever hits the magical $149 price point just like Hong Kong or Taiwan since Nintendo's only advantage in the censorship process can be circumvented by adding region specific patches ... 

Even places like NA, Japan, and West Europe have millions of consumers with lower income.



Look at the platform totals http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/ Nintendo never made good numbers for home consoles in Europe compared to the North American market. Even the Nintendo Wii sold significantly less in Europe. Now, compare the NA and Europe numbers of Sony's home consoles. Europe always sold on eye level. The majority even sold actually better (PS2, PS3 and PS4 so far). Pretty interesting, right?

One reason why the Playstation brand is so successful in Europe is because people over here have not much interest in the Xbox brand (except UK). If you want to buy a cutting-edge console and you basically have only one option, well, guess what, you will opt for that one option. (Xbox is no real option as it has no real acceptance in the mass market in Europe and 9 out of 10 of your friends you play online with will have a Playstation. Back in the days, N64, Saturn, Dreamcast and Gamecube weren't real options as well because they were all flawed in one or more departments - they all were, together with the original Xbox, just niche consoles).

Nintendo really needs to start a huge marketing offensive in Europe to bring that numbers closer to the NA market. Currently, the European market still just consists only of UK, Germany and France really. The rest of Europe have either a too small population (Scandinavia, Benelux, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland) have a weak buying power (Italy, Spain, virtually all EU countries which don't belong to old Europe + Turkey) or are a combination of both (Portugal, Greece). They are just good for some pocket money. Of course, the combined amount of pocket money made from all those countries is still something.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Look at the platform totals http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/ Nintendo never made good numbers for home consoles in Europe compared to the North American market. Even the Nintendo Wii sold significantly less in Europe. Now, compare the NA and Europe numbers of Sony's home consoles. Europe always sold on eye level. The majority even sold actually better (PS2, PS3 and PS4 so far). Pretty interesting, right?

You are right that Nintendo home consoles always do much better in America compared to Europe but its a different story for their handhelds.

Gameboy, DS & 3DS sold only a slight bit more in America than Europe, GBA is the exception which sold much better in America.

If Switch follows closer to handheld trends than it could put up similar numbers as America.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Fight-the-Streets said:

One reason why the Playstation brand is so successful in Europe is because people over here have not much interest in the Xbox brand (except UK). If you want to buy a cutting-edge console and you basically have only one option, well, guess what, you will opt for that one option. (Xbox is no real option as it has no real acceptance in the mass market in Europe and 9 out of 10 of your friends you play online with will have a Playstation. Back in the days, N64, Saturn, Dreamcast and Gamecube weren't real options as well because they were all flawed in one or more departments - they all were, together with the original Xbox, just niche consoles).

Not true exactly the brand is popular in Europe because it was the first platform to be handled in a proper commercial manner ask any gamer in Europe who was around before the PS1 introduced its mainstream approach gaming was an inconsistent element back then we often had to wait years after other regions for releases if a release happened at all and a large bulk of games often never made it to the pal region. Playstation was the first platform that heavily fixed the problems in the region by handling the whole region as one entity in the same way as the US, the result was more consistent releases and reduced time between releases of games in different regions.

Yeah it didn't get rid of the problems but it improved how EU was handled as a region this why the brand is strong in Europe it's nothing to do with cutting edge tech it was more about being the more consistent brand.