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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 47): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 20-26, 2017

L.Lawliet on 01 December 2017

Switch is going crazy. I hope PS4's sales get better.



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Teeqoz on 01 December 2017
Wyrdness said:
Teeqoz said:

The groups we have data for imply a handheld bias. Should we just ignore the goups we have data for, because we are lacking data for other groups? Until Nintendo discloses any more data, we have to work with what Nintendo has given us.

Our arguments is based on albeit limited data, while your argument is based on presumptions regarding the groups we have no data for.

Do I think the Switch would have sold as well if it was just a handheld? No. However I think it would have done a lot worse if it lacked the handheld functionality compared to if it lacked the home console functionality. Hence I think the handheld form factor is of greater importance for the high sales than the home console functionality.

Maybe you're having trouble understanding what the debate is here, you're arguing about two particular groups yes but the original argument is someone claiming handheld is driving sales more than anything else, in order to make that claim the usage of the middle group is required because right now you're just taking one minority group and trying to peddle that as proof an argument doesn't work that way you have to prove the vast majority use handheld mode more to say that is what is driving sales.

If that is not your argument then it brings up the question of why you're replying because that is what the whole debate is about and so far you have done nothing to debunk the point that its the overall hybrid concept that drives sales and the data backs this up right now you're just repeating the rhetoric of one minority group being bigger than another except that's not even the argument to begin with it's what is driving sales and making the platform competitive.

The groups we have data for suggest that handheld use is the preferred use. We do not have data for the remaining 50% where the usage difference is of a factor smaller than 4, hence we can't make any definitive claim. But the data we do have suggests handheld mode is the most used. Until we get better data, I'll standby this conclusion. I'd rather draw a conclusion based on limited data than no data.

I'm not claiming this is a definitive proof at all. It does, like I say, suggest that this is the case, but to prove it, we would need more data, which we don't have as of yet.

Though of course, we do have some other data that would suggest the handheld form factor being preffered, ie. the entire history of Nintendo's handheld vs home console sales which show a bias towards handhelds. Also, given that this is Japan we are talking about, we also have decades of data showing how handhelds are preferred over home consoles in that specific country.

Does the hybrid concept make the Switch more appealing than handheld without any home console functionality? Absolutely. But especially in Japan, it shouldn't be too controversial to say that the fact that the handheld form factor is of much higher importance to the sales than the home console form factor.

This is obviously speculation, but it is rather well founded speculation.



NoCtiS_NoX on 01 December 2017

Since the Kerotan's thread is locked.
And I don't want to waste my response on that thread.

Currently PS4 YTD wise it's up over 2016.
There is a MHW Pro edition in December 7. This will help PS4 sales in the last 5 weeks of 2017 in Japan so either PS4 can beat 2016 or equal the total YTD of 2016.

MC YTD
2016 - 1,325,596 
2017 - 1,492,789 

Famitsu YTD
2016 - 1,393,276
2017 - 1,622,582

2016 MC

Week 48- 118,350 FFXV
Week 49- 92,717 Yakuza 6
Week 50- 79,348
Week 51- 100,238
Week 52- 83,337

2017
Week 48 will be weak compared last year. Sales could be closer in 30K or over.
Week 49 can be massive with Pro MHW ( depends on how many Capcom and Sony shipped) and Yakuza Kiwami II w/ PS4 limited edition as well. Beta for MHW will be up on this week. A great week for PS4.
Week 50- PS4 sales this week can match last year's sales. Post MHW Pro and Yakuza Kiwami II
Week 51 and 52 are wild cards but with the anticipation of MHW we can see matching the sales from last year.

If Switch is really eating sales from PS4. It should not be up YTD. PS4 is fine in Japan. Switch is just amazing this year.
Currently Switch is selling from the 3DS, Splatoon, Mario and Zelda crowd or basically Nintendo crowd.
The real test will be next year but PS4 line-up next year is strong. If PS4 underperforms in 2018 then basically Switch managed to steal the sales from the PS4.
2018 is massive for PS4 in Japan if they failed to match or beat 2017 then yes Switch or Nintendo did it's job in eating the sales from PS4.

Last edited by NoCtiS_NoX - on 02 December 2017

Zekkyou on 01 December 2017
Wyrdness said:
Zekkyou said:

I presented a new line of discussion related to the original, with that line being clearly defined in the first post. Who said what before then is irrelevant to me.

I don't believe the Switch is competing more as a handheld than a hybrid though, just more as a handheld than a home console. Those are two entirely separate positions on their own. I would consider a hybrid's default position in the market to be the line between a home console and a handheld, the 50% mark. However, between Nintendo's data and the lack of a visible effect on PS4's sales before, during, or after launch (despite the Switch's own considerable success), i think it's fair to say that the Switch is sitting outside of that exact 50% line. I might be wrong, but it seems reasonable to me ^^

The context of the argument still remains whether you ignore what he's replying to or not.

Can you for certain say it's not having an effect on PS4 in the long run it can have a significant effect we're seeing the PS4 get steamrolled in Japan which has had an effect according to Namco's own words Japanese developers are scrambling to get on the platform which can be assumed that they were purely PS4 based before which would push the Switch further into the favour of consumers as that means increased support, that's an example of an effect happening.

Of course i can't, which is why i haven't All I've said is that it's not yet had a visible effect specifically on sales (globally, as noted in my original comment), which itself is already a qualified statement. Given how clearly I've presented my views as speculative opinions, i'm not sure why you're asking this at all. I even flatly acknowledging that at the end of the comment you just replied to.

Last edited by Zekkyou - on 01 December 2017

Jizz_Beard_thePirate on 01 December 2017



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

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Kerotan on 02 December 2017
NoCtiS_NoX said:

Since the Kerotan's thread is locked.
And I don't want to waste my response on that thread.

Currently PS4 YTD wise it's up over 2016.
There is a MHW Pro edition in December 7. This will help PS4 sales in the last 5 weeks of 2017 in Japan so either PS4 can beat 2016 or equal the total YTD of 2016.

MC YTD
2016 - 1,492,789
2017 - 1,325,596

Famitsu YTD
2016 - 1,393,276
2017 - 1,622,582

2016 MC

Week 48- 118,350 FFXV
Week 49- 92,717 Yakuza 6
Week 50- 79,348
Week 51- 100,238
Week 52- 83,337

2017
Week 48 will be weak compared last year. Sales could be closer in 30K or over.
Week 49 can be massive with Pro MHW ( depends on how many Capcom and Sony shipped) and Yakuza Kiwami II w/ PS4 limited edition as well. Beta for MHW will be up on this week. A great week for PS4.
Week 50- PS4 sales this week can match last year's sales. Post MHW Pro and Yakuza Kiwami II
Week 51 and 52 are wild cards but with the anticipation of MHW we can see matching the sales from last year.

If Switch is really eating sales from PS4. It should not be up YTD. PS4 is fine in Japan. Switch is just amazing this year.
Currently Switch is selling from the 3DS, Splatoon, Mario and Zelda crowd or basically Nintendo crowd.
The real test will be next year but PS4 line-up next year is strong. If PS4 underperforms in 2018 then basically Switch managed to steal the sales from the PS4.
2018 is massive for PS4 in Japan if they failed to match or beat 2017 then yes Switch or Nintendo did it's job in eating the sales from PS4.

Excellent post. Only thing is you have the 2017 YTD much too low. Check the thread from chris1964 on resetera for the accurate up to date figure. 

 

One last thing. Does 2017 have a week 53 included in the tracking?



NoCtiS_NoX on 02 December 2017
Kerotan said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

Since the Kerotan's thread is locked.
And I don't want to waste my response on that thread.

Currently PS4 YTD wise it's up over 2016.
There is a MHW Pro edition in December 7. This will help PS4 sales in the last 5 weeks of 2017 in Japan so either PS4 can beat 2016 or equal the total YTD of 2016.

MC YTD
2016 - 1,492,789
2017 - 1,325,596

Famitsu YTD
2016 - 1,393,276
2017 - 1,622,582

2016 MC

Week 48- 118,350 FFXV
Week 49- 92,717 Yakuza 6
Week 50- 79,348
Week 51- 100,238
Week 52- 83,337

2017
Week 48 will be weak compared last year. Sales could be closer in 30K or over.
Week 49 can be massive with Pro MHW ( depends on how many Capcom and Sony shipped) and Yakuza Kiwami II w/ PS4 limited edition as well. Beta for MHW will be up on this week. A great week for PS4.
Week 50- PS4 sales this week can match last year's sales. Post MHW Pro and Yakuza Kiwami II
Week 51 and 52 are wild cards but with the anticipation of MHW we can see matching the sales from last year.

If Switch is really eating sales from PS4. It should not be up YTD. PS4 is fine in Japan. Switch is just amazing this year.
Currently Switch is selling from the 3DS, Splatoon, Mario and Zelda crowd or basically Nintendo crowd.
The real test will be next year but PS4 line-up next year is strong. If PS4 underperforms in 2018 then basically Switch managed to steal the sales from the PS4.
2018 is massive for PS4 in Japan if they failed to match or beat 2017 then yes Switch or Nintendo did it's job in eating the sales from PS4.

Excellent post. Only thing is you have the 2017 YTD much too low. Check the thread from chris1964 on resetera for the accurate up to date figure. 

 

One last thing. Does 2017 have a week 53 included in the tracking?

I accidentally mixed it up. Sorry about that. I mistakenly placed the YTD of 2017 to 2016 and vice versa.
Fixed now.



takoyaki7 on 02 December 2017

Today the row was quite terrible at Akihabara Yodobashi in Japan. It seems that a lot of switch was supplied.

https://twitter.com/Harapeko_Kuman/status/936870690992504832/photo/1



tbone51 on 02 December 2017
takoyaki7 said:
Today the row was quite terrible at Akihabara Yodobashi in Japan. It seems that a lot of switch was supplied.

https://twitter.com/Harapeko_Kuman/status/936870690992504832/photo/1

Dont wrry theyll all be gone by... Before this post was posted lol



takoyaki7 on 02 December 2017
tbone51 said:
takoyaki7 said:
Today the row was quite terrible at Akihabara Yodobashi in Japan. It seems that a lot of switch was supplied.

https://twitter.com/Harapeko_Kuman/status/936870690992504832/photo/1

Dont wrry theyll all be gone by... Before this post was posted lol

Thank you for the information.I found other similar information.There may be many shipments this week.