Hard to say, momentum seems to have slowed down for the Switch albeit still popular.

Its gonna take some massive sales for this to happen in under 3 years.

Stock is definitely an issue for Switch, but they're becoming easier to find as well. Perhaps the price is still too high for some, others are waiting for the holiday.

If it wasn't for delays and a cancellation, this year for X1 would have been at par with competitors in regard to output. 2018 should be a stronger year for MS, three interesting games already scheduled for early 2018.

Nintendo has had a strong 2017 thanks to a long delayed Zelda, Wii U remasters, and a Splatoon sequel which isn't a far cry from the original.

So you're guessing sometime in 2020? By then the X1X will probably be $299 versus a $199-249 Switch. Curious to see how things change by then.

4 years.

I'll go with 4 years.

Nobody is saying that 4 was a faliure, you just decided to interprete it that way. While it did start declining in 4, it still sold pretty good. A decline does not mean that its no longer popular, just that is less popular. As great as 4 was, 3 was greater.

If we are talking about predictions, then we need some info to base it on. we say halo 6 will do worst than 5, because we have histroy of halo doing worst each entry after 3. we are not saying, 6 cant be better, just that history tells us is more liekly for it to suck than for it to be great. You are saying halo 6 will do better on nothing but your own expectations and fanatisim. Basicly you want it to be better.

There are alot of reasons for not putting Switch up against Xbox One. For starters, they're seperate genereations. Do we compare PS1 and Dreamcast sales? No, we compare PS1 and N64 sales and we do that for a reason. The second and even more legit reason why we shouldn't include Xbox One sales is because it launched in 2013. Switch launched almost four years later lol. How in the hell can anyone think that's a fair fight and not totally ridiculous? That's almost an entirely new generational gap time-wise. 

Since Xbox X releases within the same calendar year, it should be the only console used when comparing sales with Switch. 

The thread is for entertainment purposes only bro

Dont over think it

He is a master at it... as someone said, don't try to discuss with someone (words that can't be written here), because when you descend to his level you'll lose, because he is an expert in that level.

No one said the game is dead. What we are saying is that since Halo 5 already launched on the console (and MCC before) there is little to reason to expect a big boost from Halo 6 (even if it sold 10M). You try to find illogical things to defend a point that is impossible to defend.

I would bet that if we go back further enough we can find other predictions of yours like X1 obliterating PS4 in sales, or that after DX12 came to X1 it would be stronger than PS4 and it would outsell it.

And no, being the 3rd best selling doesn't mean much at all. PS3 is still the third best selling Playstation, still it isn't regarded as a sucess. And was a decline on PS HW sales.

No one also said Halo 6 is certain to sell less than Halo 5, but that Halo is on a decline tendency (that may have a small up bump), so it's more reasonable to expect it to not give a big boost than for it to give a big boost.

But please enlighten us with your expectations for X1 sales, X1X sales, and how much of a boost will SoT and Halo 6 give (separately)... like weekly sales on month X to Y will be about Z and after Halo 6 they will bump to W.

Because that is what SYSTEM SELLERS do. They raise the weekly sale baseline for a susteined time, or give a very big bump in a few weeks. That is basically also what price cuts does. you compare the average sale of let's say the year before, then see how much it sold in the 2-4 weeks after the price cut to see the punctual boost, and then monitor the other 30 weeks to see how much the baseline improved.

And looking at that the bump given by SoT and Halo 6 will be neglible.

Gran Turismo is still expected to be a system seller (GT5 sold over 12M and GT6 over 5M), but I don't expect GT Sport to improve PS4 sales by more than 1M on itself even if it cross 10M SW sold. And that is because the platform is already mature (even if no other GT have released).

I doubt very much that SoT will sell more than Forza, but does year releases of Forza boost X1 sales? Nope. The first FM and FH already gave the boost the franchise would give.

What logic is that based calendar only?

So Switch being weaker than X1 is on a next generation against it, but X1X running exactly the same games (back and forward compatibility) is alone in the gen against Switch? And how that makes it fair?

Well lets ignore generations because they kinda don't matter when 9th gen begins in what may be the middle of the 8th gen. Wii U was scrapped faster than probably intended because it was a sales disaster.

Dreamcast WAS competing with PS1 and it shared games. Technically, Dreamcast competed with PS1 longer than PS2 if you look at release dates and when Sega threw in the towel. Sega gave up virtually one year after PS2 released, about 6 months in the US.

This isn't about a fair fight. People are simply guessing when Switch COULD surpass X1's userbase. Hence, does the Switch have enough momentum to surpass the X1 and if so how quickly.

In the grand scheme, it doesn't really matter. Not because these are platforms of different generations, but because these devices appeal to primarily different audiences. Hence, even if the userbase of X1 and Switch was equal, their top selling software is going to be very different. So both platforms succeed with primarily different audiences.

XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.