really cool to necro this OP, +respect.
I think the jump from 1080 > 4k really has let down a lot of peoples expectations especially given that "no compromises" talk regarding 4k on X1X meant in Super Lucky Tales and Forza, I've always been a size over res person anyway so I know I'm not the target audience for resolution, up until this year I was more keen to use my 768p projector before upgrading to a 1080p version of it last year but considering it's connected to my 780ti , Switch and PS4 (non pro) I'm very much settled in the land of 1080p
I think some other things hurt your prediction as well though, the success of the Switch couldn't really have been expected to continue on the trend that it did and the PS4's first party and exclusive games really did show up the lack of same on the rival X1 family of systems.
Pubg's runaway success ran into some stiff competition in Fortnite which runs on everything from mobile devices to X1X/PS4P so the exclusive value of that title took a dusting in the form of some flossing 8 year olds!
Still though, takes balls to make a prediction like that and even more so to necro it, Good stuff.