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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

I have a correction to my previous assertion that PS2 were included in that 13M number for 2001 here.  PS2 and DVD-ROM drives are counted  separately so that 65% calculation is incorrect.  The correct number is in the chart below.

thismeintiel said:   According to this site, ~$200 was the actual average price of a DVD player in 2000. 

I'll be using this site which you cited for the AVERAGE PURCHASE PRICE of a DVD player per year. - http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=497

 

thismeintiel said:

And if that's the reasoning, what happened in 2003 when you could get a GC and DVD player for less than $150, but the PS2 was still $180?  Oh yea, the PS2 continued to dominant.  Again, a $25 difference doesn't mean squat to the average consumer and isn't going to change their mind about which console they are going to get.

You do know that the GameCube outsold the PS2 in 2004 in the region you're talking about right? 

PS2 sales 2004 -  3.77M

GC sales 2004 - 4.09M (edit- I mistakenly put WW numbers, America was 2.65M ^^")

Nevertheless, 41.3% GC sales ratio between the GC + PS2 in the US for 2004 is still the best it's ratio has been in a calendar year.

 

thismeintiel said:

You can keep pulling numbers out of thin air if you wish, but that won't make them true.  And in 2002 you could get a DVD player for much less than $150.  That was the price of a cheap player in late 2000.  By 2002, you were looking at ~$75.  A $25 difference isn't going to stop people from buying one console over the other.


Below is the Average price of the PS2/GC taking into account how many months it was at "a" price during that calendar year.

AVG DVD player PURCHASE price per year via link. - http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=497

Year PS2 Price AVG DVD Player AVG PS2 VS DVD GameCube AVG GC + DVD PS2 VS (GC + DVD)
2001 $299 $165 $134 more for PS2 $199 $364 $65 less for PS2
2002 $232 $142 $ 90 more for PS2 $166 $308 $76 less for PS2
2003 $186 $123 $ 63 more for PS2 $133 $256 $70 less for PS2
2004 $159 $109 $ 50 more for PS2 $ 99 $208 $49 less for PS2

The PS2 was $65 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2001, 

The PS2 was $76 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2002, 

The PS2 was $70 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2003, 

The PS2 was $49 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2004.

The GameCube was more expensive then the AVG purchase price of a DVD player in 2001, 2002 and 2003. 

 

The following is information for US data:

Year PS2 Sales DVD Player Sales DVD + PS2 (Total) PS2 % of Total
2001  8.41M 12.71M 21.12M 40% PS2
2002 11.33M 17.09M 28.42M 40% PS2
2003  7.89M 21.99M 29.88M 26% PS2
2004  3.77M 20.00M 23.77M 16% PS2
2005  8.13M 16.15M 24.28M 33% PS2
2006  5.54M 19.79M 25.33M 22% PS2

PS2 sales peaked in 2002.

 

From 2001 to 2006 (DVD player + PS2) sales averaged 25.47M/year.

(DVD player + PS2) sales were steady around that 25.47M/year average even with dips and rises in PS2 sales.

The demand for TV connected DVD devices was steady.

As you can see in both 2001 and 2002 40% of total players sales were PS2s, even in spite of cheaper DVD players.

When 40% of total sales of direct to TV capable DVD players were PS2s, then people were bound to be using the DVD capabilities of those PS2s in 2001 and 2002. 




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PS4 is a cash cow for Sony - that's the biggest advantage it has over PS3. 95m-125m is what I'd go with personally, and a lot has to go wrong for it to be at only 95m. Sony had no reason to keep PS3 around once the PS4 was up and running profitably.



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I'll say by end of 2019.



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Sony just announced they predict they will sell 79m by the end of fiscal year 2017. 

Last edited by Kerotan - on 26 January 2019

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I stated on another post, week 38 of 2019.



At this point not reaching 100m sounds very unrealistic. I'd say Ps4 has still 2 to 3 viable years on the market.



KrspaceT said:
I doubt it: The PS 1 and 2 had extra media features that helped them sell well. PS3 sale levels are closer to what I think will happen.

I hope you’re not betting much on that prediction. PS4 is already only 10 million units from PS3. Its a guaranteed 100 million+ seller. The only question is how much farther it can go above 100 million. Possibly around 125 million before we PS5 really slows it down. 

OT: PS4 will for sure hit 100 million by March 31st 2019. It’s going to pass Wii numbers by Summer. 



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September 2019



- K E M S -

Once 2018 ends, PS4 would be at 93-94m. So around summer of 2019.