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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo stock just ended trading +5.48% after the Monster Hunter announcement.

It went up even more



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RolStoppable said:
Pinkie_pie said:

So you're saying switch wasnt guaranteed of a monster hunter game and this announcement was unexpected and thats why nintendo stock went up? 

Yup, because analysts have no clue.

But Nintendo's stock has been climbing up steadily for three months now, so Monster Hunter isn't the sole contributor to this rise.

That's a yes and a no for both. As Monster Hunter is considered a major franchise, putting it on Switch (instead of 3DS or PS4 for example) is an indication that Capcom is confident in Nintendo's future. Of course, I don't think future announcement will have similar effects.

On the other side, we woudn't be seeing such a rise in value if analysts had confidence in Switch earlier this year.

Problem is that (just like it was with the Wii) the analysts can only see Switch mining into 3DS market (like they thought Wii would mine the DS market), which isn't the case, as as a handheld, Switch is placing itself into the high end - price and otherwise - whereas 3DS is on the low end; you get two to three 3DS family devices for the price of one Switch. Currently it's virtually impossible for anyone to enter the handheld market as Nintendo has bases loaded over the spectrum. Switch will replace 3DS eventually, but that's after Switch has it's successor and is moved into downmarket as a handheld-only device. Now that Vita is dead, Nintendo is securing it's position with N2DS, and using it's core (handheld) market as a staple to cram back it's relevance in the home console market (provided a one-dimensional view).



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

RolStoppable said:

Really? You honestly believe that the 3DS will stick around until a successor to Switch has been launched?

You have to remember that for the longest time the 3DS's most popular SKU has been XL which retails at $199. Switch isn't far off at $299 and comes with the added benefit of doubling as a home console. It's definitely not going to take a full generation until Switch can sell to 3DS consumers. It's already doing so now.

I do. The New 2DS XL is 149, and no doubt it will be the most popular model in the end. The reason for the N2DSXL is that Nintendo secures it's position on the low end, and I don't think Nintendo has problems to sell it for 99 if needed. Let's put it this way; if Nintendo was to fight for the low end handheld market (this is where they've been ever since the Gameboy), do you expect Nintendo to cut the price of the Switch by 50 to 70% in a case of potential disruptor? We already know analysts don't understand disruption the slightest, so such a move wouldn't be taken lightly by the investors.

Nintendo themselves don't need to support 3DS, as long as Nintendo is able to have new devs on board. On the mobile devices market, there are lots of devs that look to expand, but because the mobile market is best described as creative destruction, there's really not much room, and 3DS could be a platform for them to do so. I think Nintendo is interested in having lots of devs on board, but flooding the Switch with bad games isn't in their interest, because this would mean the bigger publishers would not make any money there. The reason for Wii's half-assed 3rd party support was the lack of money the publishers could make on Wii (compared to PS360).

New 3DS is more like Gameboy Color, an update to extend Gameboy's life. Even GB was considered dead, but the breakaway success of Pokemon breathed life into the device. Nintendo had no hurry to release a successor to Gameboy because there was no real competition, but when there were, GBA was killed in favour of DS, DS was killed in favour of 3DS, and now we're back in how things were 20 years ago with Nintendo not having a real competition in the handhelds. I don't see why 3DS could not have ten and beyond year life like the GB had in a similar situation competionwise.

Summa summarum: I fail to see a scenario where Nintendo could keep a hold on the low end handheld market while Switch is selling well. If you enjoyed Pokemon Go on mobile, I don't think it's likely that anyone would phase out 300 just on hardware to play more Pokemon.

Edit: Nintendo pursuing only the high end handheld/mobile would put them to a situation where Sony is at the moment with Playstation that they are destined to lose.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

3DS might be replaced by a Switch successor, if that is how you call a Switch Mini.



RolStoppable said:

It's already going to be a hurdle for the New 2DS XL to beat the 2DS which sold ~7m so far. The reason is that Nintendo won't support the 3DS family with first party games for much longer; 2017 is the final stretch as far as first party support is concerned. This isn't comparable to the GBC which was continually supported from its launch in 1998 all the way through 2001. Third parties won't support the 3DS for much longer either (2018 will be the final year with noteworthy games, and only few), because 3DS hardware sales will go down while Switch is the new hot gaming system.

Switch isn't going to stay at $300 forever and there's no company that looks to enter the handheld market. The 3DS is going to have an okay 2017 and a farewell year in 2018 before production ends sometime during 2019. By then Switch is going to have a hardware revision that is able to hit $200. But the more important question is which company do you identify as a threat for Nintendo's handheld market, be it high end or low end.

Well, I see so much wrong in this post. Let's start with the potential disruptor, that could be technically anyone (that's kind of the point). Every now and then an "Ouya" pops out, and by looking at how things currently are, the publishers with backlog that dates 30 years back are willing to put their old games on virtually all the platforms there is, as long as they can be ported with minimal costs. Right now I can't see a threat, but that's because Nintendo has wide variety of devices.

Of course there are developers looking to expand, the problem is the costs and risk associated. Those that have the money to publish games on consoles (such as Supercell) have found a lucrative business in the mobile devices market and have no real reason to expand to consoles. In general the business models in the mobile devices market is so much different from the traditional console market, that the games designed for the ecosystems are so different, that the mobile versions of the games are not easilly ported.

As Nintendo's problem is the lack of development resources, they can work as a publisher for selected devs and their games, it's not like Nintendo hasn't done it like forever. I wouldn't expect any major 1st party releases, but some Pokemon Ranger and the type of games we could be seeing.

The price of the Switch is eventually going to drop - but not as long as Nintendo is happy with it's sales or there's no successor in sight, or a disruptor. Of course, we might be seeing a different situation if Switch 2 is released in 2019, as Nintendo could be releasing new models yearly of bi-yearly, as far as I'm concerned - like Apple does.

As for ending the production, it's a little too early to tell at this point, not saying the scenario where production ends in 2019 could not happen, I just see it unlikely as I see there's still demand in the market, and I don't see Nintendo giving up on 3DS yet because there's still money to be made. The 3DS market don't even need high sales because of the lack of competition.

So, what major games GBC had? Aside from Pokemon, that is. 



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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guiduc said:
Thread is about Nintendo's market value guys, not Sony. Please stay on topic.

but we NEED to talk about SONY!!!



onionberry said:
guiduc said:
Thread is about Nintendo's market value guys, not Sony. Please stay on topic.

but we NEED to talk about SONY!!!

No, no we don't xD There's enough talk about Sony, somebody has to bring Playstation up everytime a competitor succeeds at something



RolStoppable said:

Then let me reframe my question: Which company do you identify as a threat in case that the 3DS vanishes from the market according to my previously outlined timeline?

Your paragraph about Switch 2 makes me wonder if you've moved on to plain trolling.

Major games for the GBC include Pokémon Silver/Gold/Crystal, The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages and Oracle of Seasons, Wario Land 3, the remasters of Link's Awakening and Tetris, and ports of Super Mario Bros. (including The Lost Levels) and Donkey Kong Country.

Actually, all of the games, sans Pokemon and Wario Land 3, just supports the point I'm making here. The games are ports or made by non-1st party developer. This is excactly what I'm expecting for the future Nintendo-published games for the New 3DS.

Of course Switch 2 wasn't trolling. So far we don't know what Nintendo has in mind for the future. What Iwata talked their plans for the future, it just might very well happen. The model Iwata talked about could very well be a departure from the traditional hardware cycle. The biggest reason for hardware cycle is to sell new games on new hardware, not that different than Hollywood making DVD releases of their VHS releases, BD releases of their DVD releases, followed by 4K releases of their HD releases. And so on.

I don't know which company would be a threat, it could be any. The reason why Nintendo's been unbeatable in handhelds is because they've always cared about the low end. If we go by what can be seen in advance, Wii never happened. It's not an issue if Switch can hit 200 by 2019, the issue is if it can hit 100 by 2019. If it can't I don't see 3DS going away (if it still sells games).



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

bdbdbd said:
RolStoppable said:

Then let me reframe my question: Which company do you identify as a threat in case that the 3DS vanishes from the market according to my previously outlined timeline?

Your paragraph about Switch 2 makes me wonder if you've moved on to plain trolling.

Major games for the GBC include Pokémon Silver/Gold/Crystal, The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages and Oracle of Seasons, Wario Land 3, the remasters of Link's Awakening and Tetris, and ports of Super Mario Bros. (including The Lost Levels) and Donkey Kong Country.

Actually, all of the games, sans Pokemon and Wario Land 3, just supports the point I'm making here. The games are ports or made by non-1st party developer. This is excactly what I'm expecting for the future Nintendo-published games for the New 3DS.

Of course Switch 2 wasn't trolling. So far we don't know what Nintendo has in mind for the future. What Iwata talked their plans for the future, it just might very well happen. The model Iwata talked about could very well be a departure from the traditional hardware cycle. The biggest reason for hardware cycle is to sell new games on new hardware, not that different than Hollywood making DVD releases of their VHS releases, BD releases of their DVD releases, followed by 4K releases of their HD releases. And so on.

I don't know which company would be a threat, it could be any. The reason why Nintendo's been unbeatable in handhelds is because they've always cared about the low end. If we go by what can be seen in advance, Wii never happened. It's not an issue if Switch can hit 200 by 2019, the issue is if it can hit 100 by 2019. If it can't I don't see 3DS going away (if it still sells games).

I agree with you. Switch will have a new hardware model for upgrades, not tied to a model born in the 1970s/80s, but something applicable to today and modern mobile technology. 

Switch has broken most every other hardware rule anyway, might as well also break that one. 

3DS will go away in a couple of years though IMO, the current Switch die shrunk to 16nm (Tegra X2) will take over the lower price position, a new Switch will come out around 2020 that will reoccupy the $300 price point. 

I think the Switch-3DS duo kinda shows how Nintendo will do business in the future. One higher end model at a higher price/profit margin, and a cheaper model for the low end of the market with more frequent model upgrades to keep the ecosystem fresh and people rebuying into hardware. 

Even though 3DS will probably go away, to be honest I don't really think it would be all that bad if Nintendo just kept selling it even without new software. The 3DS and DS have like what? 2000 games between them? Just offer that stuff through the eShop. 



Alkibiádēs said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Doesnt matter if its not exclusive. It will sell at least 20 million on the ps4. Same can not be said with monster hunter xx 

Yeah, and most of that money will go to Rockstar. 

Alot of people will buy the console just to play GTA 6. There are alot of people who game, but it is not their primary hobby and they still use last gen consoles.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut