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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - I could have been mistaken about Swich, but I have one theory left.

Nuvendil said:
Except they didn't do that with the Wii. With the Wii they planned on a possible feeble start, they had just come off the GameCube. When they saw demand was exceptionally strong, they immediately set about raising supply as fast as feasibly possible. The Wii shattered records not due to artificially restricted supply, but due to demand that outstripped even the most prolific supply. And the Switch's first shipments were not nearly as conservative, they put over 2.7 mil on store shelves in a month. And sold nearly all of them. Despite that month being March.

And sales cannot be simultaneously very high and supply artificially constricted. The supply has to BE THERE to be purchased.

Yeah someone (maybe you...?) had a really good post a few month back detailing the Wii shipments for the first year/year 1/2 and how they literally could not possibly have shipped more than they did. They upped production twice if I recall correctly and were shipping between 1.6 and 1.8 million a month in 2007 and as much as 2.4 million a month in 2008. If that is supposed to be artificially resticted supply then nintendo is doing it wrong guys.

Right now Switch is roughly shipping 300k/week, wich means monthly shipments are around 1.2 million right now with production nearly doubling compared to their initial target until next year. We should see them slowly up shipments incrementally, with boosts for ARMS and Splatoon 2.

Mr.GameCrazy said:
I believe that if it was truly artificial demand as you claim, Nintendo wouldn't have increased the amount of shipments for the Switch around the world for its launch. After all, they were initially going to ship 2 million.

And this was with production starting roughly 6 months before the Switch went on sale. Preorders opened up 2 months before it went on sale, realistically this should be when Nintendo first had a rough idea of real demand and decided to up production/launch month shipments. They probably had some small buffer in the supply chain, wich they used up for launch month.

People tend to forget that every single one of the suppliers will have to increase production as well. The parts for a Switch aren't just lying around, somewhere. It takes time to increase supply for the parts and then it takes time for that to trickle down into production of the Switch itself. Add shipping storing arrangements to that and yes, two month is a very short time to significantly increase supply. They are literally shipping all they can ship right now.

Slarvax said:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/05/nintendo_using_costly_air_freight_to_meet_demand_for_switch_faster

This is basically evidence that nintendo is NOT artificially resticting supply. No one in their right mind would choose expensive air freight over sea freight if their goal was to artificially restrict demand. Especially not Ninetendo who is all about making profit off hardware. So much so that they didn't even include a pack-in title or have any bundles ready at launch. According to Nintendo profit margins on Switch are slim and choosing air freight probably ate those up completely.

DarthMetalliCube said:
The only instance for a Nintendo console in which I could MAYBE see a bit of artificial demand (or at least until they discontinued the system) would be the NES Classic. But considering they've since discontinued it, which would indicate they didn't particularly care much about sales of that console anyway, it's hard to even make an argument for that one.

Even with the NES mini, they still shipped like 2.4 million of them before they discontinued it. That's a lot of units for a product that was only available for 5 months. They miscalculated the demand plain and simple and had no interest in focusing factory and warehouse space on it, when the Switch (and even the New 2DSXL) were coming up. It's infuriating, but it's not a sales strategy.

 

In short, Nintendo restricting supply artificially is a myth for all the reasons given by the lovely people I quoted.

For an actual artificially restictive supply strategy, look no further than Disney and their 'vault'. They know they have evergreen products and use it effectively to keep DVD/BD prices above average. In their case it works because they have a lot of diffrent desirable products to sell that they can cycle in and out.

Note how that does not apply to the Switch in any way shape or form. Nintendo could start something like that with the mini classic consoles, only making them available for christmas, one at a time and then having them 'go back into the vault' but they haven't done so yet.



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VGhippy said:
Mbolibombo said:

Well, we did have A zelda and 3D mario game for the Wii U as well ;P

I kid, sort of.. But I fully agree with what you said.

To be fair, I'll admit if Zelda and Mario 3D came out in the first year of the WiiU I might have gotten it :P

(full disclosure: I did actually pick up a second hand WiiU last year, but I just can't really get into the whole second screen thing. I tried out all the Nintendo land games, but the control method never clicked with me. Like using the gyroscope as a camera and things, I just don't know =/ )

But it did! Windwaker HD and Super Mario 3D world (still a 3D Mario despite what some say :P)

 



Mbolibombo said:

But it did! Windwaker HD and Super Mario 3D world (still a 3D Mario despite what some say :P)

 

 

You know, I had completely forgotten about WW HD :P



What if Nintendo themselves have expected the demand to decrease? Increase of production is not something you just "fix" like that. There is not only money involved, but also time. Maybe they decided to safe that money and hope that time would fix the problem for them by the time it would have taken them to increase production.

Supply and demand will even out eventually anyway.



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

NintendoPie said:
I'm still not convinced this isn't a troll account.

i think its pretty obvious, almost every thread he starts is like this plus he hasn't responded to a single person in this thread.



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Yeah, I agree.

Nintendo is definitely buying all the units themselves, creating artificial demand. That's the only reason so many Switch units could have been sold.



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While games are what sell a console, during its launch period what counts it's the potential. If you remember the PS4 launch, people always joked about it having "no games" or just PS3 ports. They also called it "Remasterstation". Either way, it kept selling. People weren't buying it for the games it had, but because they knew it would have plenty of great games.

While the Switch has few games, people know it will eventually receive all Nintendo franchises and some 3rd parties. They like the hybrid concept, so they are buying it to play these future games.

About the public, I don't know if it's feeding from the handheld public, since it's quite expensive. Maybe former Wii owners are upgrading to it (most likely skipping the Wii U since its concept was pretty much flawed, Switch is basically Wii U on steroids).



Surprising? No. Nintendo has thrown all of their eggs in one basket.

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niceguygameplayer said:

It has been over 2 months since switch released. It is still going strong. I didn't expect this. I figured that the Nintendo fanatics would have gotten their systems and sales would be slowing down. It actually seems to have increased! This doesn't make much sense to me since it is underpowered, very expensive--not counting the outrageous scalper prices of $410+ on Amazon--, and there are few games. 

I have only one explanation other than just misreading the whole thing. The explanation is this: artificial demand. Nintendo was said to have done this with Wii. After 2 months it seems Nintendo (a multi billion dollar company) would have the Switch production problem fixed. They should be widely available. Maybe they saw that this worked for Wii and they are using this strategy to create artificial demand for Switch. Many ppl want what they can't have. Could this be the answer? Please let me know your opinions in the comments.

Yawn. Where the hell have you been? The artificial demand theory was debunked when every single Switch Nintendo promised to ship during launch month was sold. They even shipped some by plane so they even lost money. 

Just go buy a Switch.