Out of the 5.86 million total shipped so far this fiscal year, 2.45 million were NN2DS XLs, 1.77 million were N2DSs, and 1.63 million were NN3DSXLs.

I'm still expecting 3DS hardware to plunge on 2018. The ever decreasing software sales make it inevitable. We only have four weeks of Media Create, but so far, the 3DS is down 50% over last year. And this year it won't have Dragon Quest or Pokemon to help it either.

Basically, I think the release of the 2DSXL managed to postpone the collapse in 3DS hardware sales by a year, but it'll happen this year instead.

Basically, I think the release of the 2DSXL managed to postpone the collapse in 3DS hardware sales by a year, but it'll happen this year instead.

UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.

Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.

Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.

With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.

The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230847

Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.

Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.

Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.

Are we certain that Vita only ships to Japan basically? Obviously very little info on vita and if shipments ended in some countries or not.

It's 250k sold in Japan for first 3 quarters so at least ~300k shipped. Jan so far only has 24k, Feb and March will be similar so around ~320k sold and ~400k shipped and you give it 100k more than that for everything else.

There has never been any official announcement of Vita no longer being shipped outside of Japan but it seems like nobody in America or Europe has seen any in stock for like 2 years so its safe to assume that shipments are either non existent or so small that they really arent worth mentioning.

It seems like this site has Europe overtracked by quite in the last couple years.

HOLY SHIT. My predictions were super spot on LMAO.

Switch - 7.24 million (-4%)
3DS - 3.01 millin (+0%)
PS4 - 9.00 million (perfect)

For the next quarter my PS4 prediction (2.5 million) remain the same. Huuum, maybe i'll increase it to 2.6 million... Monster Hunter World did better than expect, and it boosted Japan sales a lot in January. But as for now i'm stick with 2.5 million to match Sony 19 million prediction for the Fiscal Year, which looks very realistic.

For 3DS, i increase my prediction to 800k, 3DS really surprised me this holiday, while Switch i'll decrease it to 3 million, i thought at this point Nintendo would have been ready with the stock... but there are still stock issues, expecially in Japan.

300k shipped in Japan would only make sense if there had been shortages going into the fiscal year. For example, if at the start of the fiscal year there are 50k units that aren't sold through yet and there are also 50k units not sold through three quarters later, then selling through 250k units translates to 250k units in shipments. But if there was a shortage at the start of the fiscal year (for argument's sake there were 0 units not sold through yet), then fixing the shortage and selling through 250k units would translate to shipments of 300k if there are 50k units not sold through after three quarters.

More importantly though, it doesn't change the outcome for this thread if Vita shipped 500k, 600k, 700k or 800k. I don't think anyone would argue in favor of 1m+. Right now shipment forecasts for PS4, Switch and 3DS give Nintendo a lead of 2.4m, so the real point I was making concerns the margin of victory for Nintendo. People will look at the difference of 2.4m and might jump the gun to conclude Nintendo will win by 2-3m, but I am saying that a range of 1-2m is much, much more likely. You are free to estimate Vita at 800k because it doesn't change the outcome. My first paragraph is merely an explanation for a flaw in your logic, because I have no reason to fight over 50k units.