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Forums - Politics Discussion - Elections in the Netherlands - Nationalist surge halted, high voter turnout

ArchangelMadzz on 16 March 2017
barneystinson69 said:

Based on exit polling. Right... The same exit polling that was horribly off in the us elections, and said that brexit was a lost cause? 

To be fair polls in the primaries had trump beating hillary. And the polls changed drastically in the 2 weeks leading up to the election.

Also Brexit polls on the day of the vote was very close, and it was 52% to 48% so your argument isn't that strong.



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StarOcean on 16 March 2017
Ka-pi96 said:
StarOcean said:

I said one US election. And as for Brexit, many people, including myself saw it coming. That one was a bit more obvious, imo. Then again -I did not follow the polls for that decision. Were they like the US one? And despite it being 2, that really doesn't improve things. 

IIRC the "English" (probably French actually) cunt who hates everyone who isn't English (ignoring the fact that his family were almost certainly not English) was conceding defeat immediately after the polls. So yeah, was probably like the US one.

And it really just proves that polls aren't 100% accurate (don't think anybody claimed they were though), not that the opposite of what they say is what always happens

Polls arent reliable, you're right. But I dont believe completely disregarding them is good either



Lafiel on 16 March 2017
irstupid said:
StarOcean said:

Using one US election to base all voting for all countries going forward probably isn't the best metric to base polls on. That's like using the Wii as a metric for all console gens going forward. It's just unreliable, more unreliable than not believing polls  

He didn't use one, he brought up two. The U.S. election AND the brexit vote.

firstly, there were no exit polls for the EU referendum !!

secondly, the US exit polls correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote, which is all they can determine - they aren't designed to predict the electoral college outcome

barney was wrong on both statements



forest-spirit on 16 March 2017

So Wilders was beaten, that's good news.



funkateer2 on 16 March 2017
forest-spirit said:
So Wilders was beaten, that's good news.

Indeed that is good news imho. However, his number of seats has increased, so his brand of angry populistic rhetoric has still grown in popularity, and that's still something to worry about.

But to put his growing popularity into perspective, he still only won 13% of votes and that's not nearly enough to get him anywhere near governing The Netherlands. No political party wants to form a coalition with him anymore, he has time and again proven unable to cooperate. Even the structure and history of his PVV clearly reflects that. He's an angry name-calling scaremonger who does not accept any criticism; it's his way or the high way.

Even if he would've became the biggest party, there's just no way he can partake in any coalition and any coalition is going to be bigger than him alone. This man can only function in an opposition role in the foreseeable future.

WIth all that said, you've got to give it to him: He's a smart and effective debater. He knows how to appeal to people with genuine worries. But I firmly believe he doesn't have any answer that won't be counterproductive. Fortunately the large majority of The Netherlands still agrees with me.



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weaveworld on 16 March 2017
SvennoJ said:
When I lived in The Netherlands the pvda was still the largest party, they're 7th now. Times changed. Wait a minute that happened only recently, from 38 to 9 seats, they must have seriously pissed off their voters.

Yeah, they joined the VVD last time to rule the country, big mistake!



irstupid on 16 March 2017
Lafiel said:
irstupid said:

He didn't use one, he brought up two. The U.S. election AND the brexit vote.

firstly, there were no exit polls for the EU referendum !!

secondly, the US exit polls correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote, which is all they can determine - they aren't designed to predict the electoral college outcome

barney was wrong on both statements

Exit polls, or the media all saying one thing. To the public they are the same thing.

But yes the polls do predict popular vote. And what is electroal votes? It is teh popular vote in that state. Their polls were wrong for most of the swing states. So yes they were wrong. Besides, remove California and the popular vote is a tight race. But again, the point is, polls take the popular vote in EACH state. The popular vote in EACH state wins that states electoral votes. 



barneystinson69 on 16 March 2017
irstupid said:
Lafiel said:

firstly, there were no exit polls for the EU referendum !!

secondly, the US exit polls correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote, which is all they can determine - they aren't designed to predict the electoral college outcome

barney was wrong on both statements

Exit polls, or the media all saying one thing. To the public they are the same thing.

But yes the polls do predict popular vote. And what is electroal votes? It is teh popular vote in that state. Their polls were wrong for most of the swing states. So yes they were wrong. Besides, remove California and the popular vote is a tight race. But again, the point is, polls take the popular vote in EACH state. The popular vote in EACH state wins that states electoral votes. 

You can remove California AND Texas, and Trump would win. Running up margins don't matter in the US, which I feel is a bit of a fair system. Just because you win huge in California, New York, and Illinois, doesn't mean that should decide the election. 



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Lafiel on 16 March 2017
irstupid said:
Lafiel said:

firstly, there were no exit polls for the EU referendum !!

secondly, the US exit polls correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote, which is all they can determine - they aren't designed to predict the electoral college outcome

barney was wrong on both statements

Exit polls, or the media all saying one thing. To the public they are the same thing.

But yes the polls do predict popular vote. And what is electroal votes? It is teh popular vote in that state. Their polls were wrong for most of the swing states. So yes they were wrong. Besides, remove California and the popular vote is a tight race. But again, the point is, polls take the popular vote in EACH state. The popular vote in EACH state wins that states electoral votes. 

but the exit polls in each individual state aren't representative, they are attuned to be representative for the nation wide popular vote, which is much easier to achieve (and they did achieve that) than to try to have them predict each individual state

ofcourse you could demand that they at least try to design representative exit polls for some key swing states, but in reality you need decades of experience to design them correctly and in that time different states turn out to be the "key swing states"



irstupid on 16 March 2017
Lafiel said:
irstupid said:

Exit polls, or the media all saying one thing. To the public they are the same thing.

But yes the polls do predict popular vote. And what is electroal votes? It is teh popular vote in that state. Their polls were wrong for most of the swing states. So yes they were wrong. Besides, remove California and the popular vote is a tight race. But again, the point is, polls take the popular vote in EACH state. The popular vote in EACH state wins that states electoral votes. 

but the exit polls in each individual state aren't representative, they are attuned to give be representative for the nation wide popular vote, which is much easier to achieve (and they did achieve that) than to try to have them predict each individual state

ofcourse you could demand that they at least try to design representative exit polls for some key swing states, but in reality you need decades of experience to design them correctly and in that time different states turn out to be the "key swing states"

What are you talking about. They have polls for each state.

During the election you constantly heard how many points someone was up or down in each individual state.