Elections in the Netherlands - Nationalist surge halted, high voter turnout

[Lafiel]

irstupid said:

Lafiel said:

firstly, there were no exit polls for the EU referendum !!

secondly, the US exit polls correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote, which is all they can determine - they aren't designed to predict the electoral college outcome

barney was wrong on both statements

Exit polls, or the media all saying one thing. To the public they are the same thing.

But yes the polls do predict popular vote. And what is electroal votes? It is teh popular vote in that state. Their polls were wrong for most of the swing states. So yes they were wrong. Besides, remove California and the popular vote is a tight race. But again, the point is, polls take the popular vote in EACH state. The popular vote in EACH state wins that states electoral votes. 

but the exit polls in each individual state aren't representative, they are attuned to be representative for the nation wide popular vote, which is much easier to achieve (and they did achieve that) than to try to have them predict each individual state

ofcourse you could demand that they at least try to design representative exit polls for some key swing states, but in reality you need decades of experience to design them correctly and in that time different states turn out to be the "key swing states"