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BOLD Prediction: Zelda BotW will do a Whopping 10mil Lifetime! Update 10mil Achieved

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Zelda BotW will do a Whopping 10mil Lifetime! Update 10mil Achieved

mZuzek said:
MDMAlliance said:

My point is that things that no longer are actively popular will get forgotten and things that may never have been as popular as them will actually be "better known."  Do you get what I'm trying to say?  

There's also another thing you failed to take into account.  It's the fact that new people are being born all the time.  Things like Zelda existed a long time ago, too.  However, with games like Sonic not as many people who are being born now will know the game.  So you combine the people in the past that knew Zelda with the people now that still know Zelda, it could very likely be more known in an active kind of way.

Disagree with Sonic, every kid nowadays still knows it. It's definitely remained relevant far better than the likes of Mortal Kombat or even Donkey Kong.

Honestly, I just used Sonic as an example to see if anyone knows if it's still relevant.  I don't think Sonic is as well known now as it was, but I wasn't sure how well it retained its popularity due to things like the show it more recently started and some of the mobile games.  I actually had typed a section including this part, but decided to leave it out to see if anyone could supply some information about that.



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Yes easy. It’s a future classic.



mZuzek said:
MDMAlliance said:

My point is that things that no longer are actively popular will get forgotten and things that may never have been as popular as them will actually be "better known."  Do you get what I'm trying to say?  

There's also another thing you failed to take into account.  It's the fact that new people are being born all the time.  Things like Zelda existed a long time ago, too.  However, with games like Sonic not as many people who are being born now will know the game.  So you combine the people in the past that knew Zelda with the people now that still know Zelda, it could very likely be more known in an active kind of way.

Disagree with Sonic, every kid nowadays still knows it. It's definitely remained relevant far better than the likes of Mortal Kombat or even Donkey Kong.

The character Donkey Kong is definitely still among the most popular characters in gaming. As a franchise however, I agree, most people probably know him from Mario rather than from his own games.



RolStoppable said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

According to??? 

Again, this whole drawn out argument was over my choice of verbiage...which according to the literal definition is correct. 

This is the point where it becomes an argument about common sense.

The original definition of 'niche' is the first one that was listed. In a building, a niche is a small subsection of a subsection (a room or corridor). That's why it is reasonable to conclude that a niche has to refer to something that is very small. All of its synonyms indicate the same.

So when the term is applied to markets (definition 3), the logic remains the same. I mean, I explained it in the previous post. If the term would be used to describe anything, it would provide no distinction anymore and the term becomes meaningless and therefore redundant.

At this point it all comes down to individual perception of what is mainstream and what is not. My perception is Zelda is not as mainstream and/or lacks brand recognition in comparison to many other franchises. Don't like it? Oh well.

Last edited by PortisheadBiscuit - on 13 January 2018

10 million is definitely a lock (maybe even as early as sometime in 2018 on Nintendo Switch alone). 15 million / 20 million is the new bold predication territory. I think it's definitely got a shot at at least 15 million on Nintendo Switch alone. It's not a typical Zelda game and it's sales potential is not limited by it's predecessors. Compared to my very limited knowledge of past Zelda games, Botw felt like a faithful reboot of the franchise.

Last edited by Green098 - on 13 January 2018

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PortisheadBiscuit said:
RolStoppable said:

This is the point where it becomes an argument about common sense.

The original definition of 'niche' is the first one that was listed. In a building, a niche is a small subsection of a subsection (a room or corridor). That's why it is reasonable to conclude that a niche has to refer to something that is very small. All of its synonyms indicate the same.

So when the term is applied to markets (definition 3), the logic remains the same. I mean, I explained it in the previous post. If the term would be used to describe anything, it would provide no distinction anymore and the term becomes meaningless and therefore redundant.

At this point it all comes down to individual perception of what is mainstream and what is not. My perception is Zelda is not as mainstream and/or lacks brand recognition in comparison to many other franchises. Don't like it? Oh well.

I disagree with your argument here.  Niche isn't about what is mainstream and what's not.  When talking about games, it's about the business definition of the word.  

This means specialized markets.  Given how the game has changed in its life, I think we can already say that it does not qualify as niche.  This is, in particular, the case for its latest release in which this thread is about.

 

edit:  I'm coming back to edit my post because I kind of have a feeling you wont fully understand what I mean, so I'll give a couple examples of what I mean.

Etrian Odyssey, niche series.  Generally stays the same, but has a dedicated audience.  Is not the defining game of its genre.
Atelier (whatever games they have), niche series.  I haven't played much of it, but I can tell it generally keeps to its own formulas, but it still sells enough to justify more releases.  

Legend of Zelda, not a niche series.  The game gets experimented on and still manages to sell numbers to justify future releases.  Latest one marks its furthest departure from its formula while still remaining true to its  genre.  Not a niche given the changes.

Last edited by MDMAlliance - on 13 January 2018

MDMAlliance said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

At this point it all comes down to individual perception of what is mainstream and what is not. My perception is Zelda is not as mainstream and/or lacks brand recognition in comparison to many other franchises. Don't like it? Oh well.

 

edit:  I'm coming back to edit my post because I kind of have a feeling you wont fully understand what I mean, so I'll give a couple examples of what I mean.

don't give yourself so much credit, its not quantum physics lol 



If it keeps its attach rate up it could reach there by the time the switch hits 20-25+ million consoles.



mZuzek said:
MDMAlliance said:

My point is that things that no longer are actively popular will get forgotten and things that may never have been as popular as them will actually be "better known."  Do you get what I'm trying to say?  

There's also another thing you failed to take into account.  It's the fact that new people are being born all the time.  Things like Zelda existed a long time ago, too.  However, with games like Sonic not as many people who are being born now will know the game.  So you combine the people in the past that knew Zelda with the people now that still know Zelda, it could very likely be more known in an active kind of way.

Disagree with Sonic, every kid nowadays still knows it. It's definitely remained relevant far better than the likes of Mortal Kombat or even Donkey Kong.

Sorry to jump into conversation (since I have no idea what you're talking about), but I occasionally do a survey through my kids - both when they were in kindergarten, and later in school - you'd be surprised how few kids know about Mario, let alone Zelda - of course, everyone knew what Angry Birds are and most what Minecraft is.



I think with sales until 31. December, Zelda BotW Switch only is probably around 7m. With WiiU version probably around 8.5m.