Not at all, you are lowballing a lot.

on the GPU end, right now we have a 14nm polaris GPU capable of 5.3TF when not "console clocked". Dropping that to 7nm (which is gonna happen) wouldn't just give us an at least 2 fold increase in core count in that GPU but will also allow it to be clocked higher. Think as high as 2Ghz. All in all that amounts to lik a 4x increase in performance. And this is before taking into account any other tech advancements in the design of said GPU. I don't see the PS5/XB2 having anything less than a GPU capable of at least 12TF-16TF. Its noteven about pushing the envelope. Its about just using what will be available then. Naga20 is supposed to be a 12TF GPU du out in 2018. PS5/XB2 coming in 2020 could likely mean they would be using navi instead which will be in th 16TF-18TF power band range.

Also, with memory we are gonna likely see a two tier memory system. The APU will come with its own 16GB of HBM2 ram; would result in not just massive performance boost but a more straight forward design. Then we will have a seperate memory pool of around 4GB of DDR3/4 ram thats dedicated to the OS. Bith two ram solutions combined will probably cost as much in 2020 as it does now to throw in 12GB of GDDR5 ram intoa console.

As for storage, it won't be an SSHD. But more likely an nvme m.2 SSD. Not only is this much smaller, the performance it offers on tab to even an SSD is too much to ignore. Looking at 3GB/s transfer speeds versus 550Mb/s on the SSD and no more than 250MB/s on any kinda SSHD. To put this into perspective, a 250GB nvme SSD today costs $130 today at retail. %12GB cost $300. Those prices are gonna crash in the next year or two as everyone will be making those kinda drives. By the time these console ome along, we probably would be able to get 512 drives for as little as $70 at retail which would translate to around $40 at bulk OEM prices. Sony or MS won't focus on giving large SSD sizes, 512GB will be enough with the option to download to external drives or upgrade your drive as you see fit.

I don't know a ton about hardware, but I think the PS5 is a 2019 system. I have a hard time believing that the PS4 will be around as long as the PS3, especially considering the Pro came out 3 years after the normal PS4, so another three years to the next new system makes sense.

The PS4pro existing is exactly why the PS5 won't come out in 2019. That and sony handilly winning the current generation. They don't have to rush anything and stand more to gain from ust taking their time.

All that aside, 7nm chip fabrication. The PS5 being released hinges on that tech. And by all indications that tech won't be available till 2019. Whenever it is though, expect the PS5 a year after.

I was going to bet on a late 2018 date, but looking at how AMD revised Navi for 2019 on their roadmap I'm now more convinced we could really be talking late 2019... 2020 would be way too late to let the Scorpio on the wild imho

I think Sony will look and see how it does against the Pro, if it just continues off where we already are (i.e equalish in the USA but PS4/Pro ahead europe), I suspect sony will be happy to hold it out for a bit longer to ensure they get the right next gen hardware at the right cost.

I was going to bet on a late 2018 date, but looking at how AMD revised Navi for 2019 on their roadmap I'm now more convinced we could really be talking late 2019... 2020 would be way too late to let the Scorpio on the wild imho

I think people are attaching too much relevance to the scorpio and not really looking at the big picture.

As is, outside great deals at the end of the year the PS4 is handily dominating the XB1. The scorpio adds a problem for MS too, it doesn't just say this is the best and most powerful console to buy it also says that if you are going to buy an XB1 this is the only version of it with getting. Because if you don't want to spend as much for the scorpio then you could as well buy any other PS4. Be it a cheaper PS4pro or an even cheaper PS4s. Which are both better options than the XB1s.

The problem with that is that the scorpio will also be the most expensive console on the market, while sharing 100% of its library with cheaper alternatives. Meaning its ONLY differentiating factor will be higher resolutions, higher framerates and better image IQ. All of which would be even harder to dicern when compared against the PS4pro. And don't forget, all its software is designed to run primarily on 2013 hardware.

If anything, the scorpio coming in 2017, pretty much means MS will not release another console before 2019. Not a chance, that gives sony leeway to take their time with the PS5 and release no sooner than 2020. 

People seem to thik that the scorpio (a $400+) console, will suddenly set the world alight and sell gangbusters. No. it won't, that kinda shit only is relevant on forums. If the PS4pro sells an average of 300k consoles per month, the scorpio would at BEST (and this is assuming is more successful than the cheaper PS4pro) sell around 400-500k/month. Thats nothing when you consider that in turn the PS4s would go onto sell around 1M/month and the XB1s would manage probably less than half that every month. In the grand scheme of things, it just doesn't matter. Its on MS to make everyone think it does though.

I don't disagree with that, if MS decides to position the scorpio as a same gen upgrade.

But... if they do decide to say F this and scratch the Xbox 1 for an early start of the new gen we might be looking into a similar situation as the 360.

Them being 1 year earlier in the market did cause a ton of problems for Sony to position the PS3. Of course it wasn't the only factor (higher perceived cost of the ps3, cell, etc) but it absolutely was one of the main causes for such weak start on the PS3.

To be perfectly honest, I do think them anouncing that their games are playable on PC from now on should take some wind out of the sails of any new console they launch, simply because plenty of people who are only looking to a few Xbox games might as well play them on PC.

Ultimately I do think you're mostly right and Sony will wait for Navi to be out and hopefully a SoC in 7nm should both lower the costs as well as increase performance in a meaninful way (HBM2 is saying hi to native 4k as well)

Well, that can only work if the Scorpio is not coming in 2017. But that also causes its own issues.

A lot happened that made it possible for MS to pull the stunt that they did with the 360. Firstly, we were making a jump to HD gaming.

The transition from the PS2/XB to the PS3/360 in IQ was a night and day difference. Was less impactful betwen going from the PS3 to the PS4 and will be evenless going from the PS4 to the PS5. There was also the whole BR thing. Long and short of it was that putting BR in the box forced sony to delay their console for a year. Using the Cell and having a BR drive and over enginerring their machine also meant that they came in at a price $200 more expensive than the most expensive 360. 

None of those factors apply now.

So basically if MS decides to scrap the XB1 and just go full into the scorpio as their new generation offerring, then releasing in 2017 would be stupid. Cause their new generation console will still share the bulk of its library with the older generation console and its competitors. Same thing with releasing in 2018.

There best bet would be to wait till 2019. Which basically means they just ride out this current generation out. At that time, sony could very well have an over 100M strong install base. Thats at least 50/60M people tied to a playstation ecosystem already. Those people wouldn't have a problem waiting a year for the release of what would then be regarded as the better more powerful next gen console.