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setsunatenshi on 05 February 2017
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Intrinsic said:
setsunatenshi said:

I don't disagree with that, if MS decides to position the scorpio as a same gen upgrade.

But... if they do decide to say F this and scratch the Xbox 1 for an early start of the new gen we might be looking into a similar situation as the 360.

Them being 1 year earlier in the market did cause a ton of problems for Sony to position the PS3. Of course it wasn't the only factor (higher perceived cost of the ps3, cell, etc) but it absolutely was one of the main causes for such weak start on the PS3.

To be perfectly honest, I do think them anouncing that their games are playable on PC from now on should take some wind out of the sails of any new console they launch, simply because plenty of people who are only looking to a few Xbox games might as well play them on PC.

Ultimately I do think you're mostly right and Sony will wait for Navi to be out and hopefully a SoC in 7nm should both lower the costs as well as increase performance in a meaninful way (HBM2 is saying hi to native 4k as well)

Well, that can only work if the Scorpio is not coming in 2017. But that also causes its own issues.

A lot happened that made it possible for MS to pull the stunt that they did with the 360. Firstly, we were making a jump to HD gaming.

The transition from the PS2/XB to the PS3/360 in IQ was a night and day difference. Was less impactful betwen going from the PS3 to the PS4 and will be evenless going from the PS4 to the PS5. There was also the whole BR thing. Long and short of it was that putting BR in the box forced sony to delay their console for a year. Using the Cell and having a BR drive and over enginerring their machine also meant that they came in at a price $200 more expensive than the most expensive 360. 

None of those factors apply now.

So basically if MS decides to scrap the XB1 and just go full into the scorpio as their new generation offerring, then releasing in 2017 would be stupid. Cause their new generation console will still share the bulk of its library with the older generation console and its competitors. Same thing with releasing in 2018.

There best bet would be to wait till 2019. Which basically means they just ride out this current generation out. At that time, sony could very well have an over 100M strong install base. Thats at least 50/60M people tied to a playstation ecosystem already. Those people wouldn't have a problem waiting a year for the release of what would then be regarded as the better more powerful next gen console.

The only thing I feel you're forgetting is that it's pretty much evident the new console whenever it will arrive will play PS4 games natively. So there's no real reason to delay too much the new gen if they can make a smooth transition to it.

Wouldn't be surprised if at the beggining all PS4 games will run on PS5, but perhaps new PS5 games will not run on PS4, maybe running on PS4 pro at lower settings. No reason why indie games won't simply run on both PS4 and PS5 using a similar architecture.

What better way to open a new gen, than to say all your previous games are available on the new console day 1.

Waiting until 2020 is possible, but to me seems a bit excessive