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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

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How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.11%
 
10M-20M 125 13.19%
 
20M-30M 137 14.45%
 
30M-40M 143 15.08%
 
40M-50M 121 12.76%
 
50M-60M 120 12.66%
 
60M-70M 70 7.38%
 
70M-80M 59 6.22%
 
80M-100M 57 6.01%
 
> 100M 77 8.12%
 
Total:948
mZuzek said:
Mnementh said:

I think that was a joke

Wait, who's Link?

You know Link... full name is Chain Link Fence, he's the main character of Metal Gear Survive!



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Replicant said:
Shadow1980 said:
I'd say 80-90 million.

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?

The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been:

2013:   4.2M
2014: 14.3M
2015: 17.4M
2016: 17.5M
2017: 20.2M

So, VGC is overtracking it by a bit. In any case, the official sales figure for 2018 for the period of Jan. 1 to July 22 was 7.6M. After accounting for the different dates for Sony's mid-year updates in sell-through figures, the PS4 may be slightly up globally. Of course, we do have the holiday season coming up, and the results for Q4 are going to depend heavily on if the big Black Friday cuts produce as big of a boost as last year, and if supply constraints will be an issue during the holidays. Given that, I'd estimate that 2018 could end at anywhere from 19-20M for the PS4. And the PS4 can't keep selling at this rate forever. Despite the strong 2018 sales and a (very modest) upward revision in their forecast, Sony is still expecting overall fiscal year shipments to be down. This suggests that they're still expecting sales to decline, if not in the current quarter than at the very least in Q1 2019. The PS4 is already down YoY in Japan by 5.6% (and if you only count weeks 14-45, thus bypassing the Monster Hunter World boost, it's down 31% YoY), and is only up in the U.S. (and presumably also Europe) because of the short-term boosts provided by God of War and Spider-Man. I think this suggests that the the PS4 is cresting its peak, and if Sony's projections are on target I think we could see a fairly significant decline in Q1 next year. If I had to make a guess, then assuming a Nov. 2020 release for the PS5 I think we'll see similar to this for the PS4 for the next few years:

2018: 19.5M
2019: 15.5M
2020: 8M
2021: 4M
2022: 2M
2023-discontinuation: 1-2M

This would put the PS4 at close to 125M lifetime.

As for the Switch, I'm averse to making long-term estimates of yearly sales this early. It has yet to get a major price cut or hardware revision, and is still missing major titles like the first Gen VIII Pokemon game (due next year). Its hard to say whether its lifetime sales curve will more closely resemble, say, the 3DS or have a more typical sales curve for a Nintendo home console. However, my current lifetime sales guess assumes a maximum of 30M in the U.S., 25M in Europe, 20-25M in Japan, and 5-10M in other regions. I'm assuming it at least continues to outpace the 3DS by a healthy margin in the West, and does at most equal to the 3DS in Japan, depending on if it starts to catch up to it, which it has not so far. In fact, it's sold 45% fewer units so far this year in than what the 3DS sold in 2012, though to be fair the 3DS was absolutely killing it in Japan in 2012 (it was the third-best year for any system ever in Japan, following the DS's performances in 2006 & 2007) thanks in large part to the continued effects of the 2011 price drop as well as short-term boosts provided by the launches of the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf. The Switch meanwhile still costs substantially more than the 3DS did at this point in its life and has had no major hardware revisions. It still has the potential to catch up to the 3DS in Japan, but right now it's running a significant and growing LTD deficit that currently stands at about 2.7M units.

As for the XBO, there's really no way to make accurate guesses on worldwide sales without MS providing any information. The only truly accurate figures we have is for the U.S. & Japan, but those regions alone don't tell us the whole story. Assuming the U.S. represents 55-60% of the XBO's sales, it's probably sitting at most close to 40M units lifetime right now, maybe as few as 36M. At most, I see it selling roughly 60M units lifetime globally, though until MS gives us actual official shipment tallies we'll never know for sure.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 19 November 2018

Shadow1980 said:
Replicant said:

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?

The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been:

2013:   4.2M
2014: 14.3M
2015: 17.4M
2016: 17.5M
2017: 20.2M

So, VGC is overtracking it by a bit. In any case, the official sales figure for 2018 for the period of Jan. 1 to July 22 was 7.6M. After accounting for the different dates for Sony's mid-year updates in sell-through figures, the PS4 may be slightly up globally. Of course, we do have the holiday season coming up, and the results for Q4 are going to depend heavily on if the big Black Friday cuts produce as big of a boost as last year, and if supply constraints will be an issue during the holidays. Given that, I'd estimate that 2018 could end at anywhere from 19-20M for the PS4. And the PS4 can't keep selling at this rate forever. Despite the strong 2018 sales and a (very modest) upward revision in their forecast, Sony is still expecting overall fiscal year shipments to be down. This suggests that they're still expecting sales to decline, if not in the current quarter than at the very least in Q1 2019. The PS4 is already down YoY in Japan by 5.6% (and if you only count weeks 14-45, thus bypassing the Monster Hunter World boost, it's down 31% YoY), and is only up in the U.S. (and presumably also Europe) because of the short-term boosts provided by God of War and Spider-Man. I think this suggests that the the PS4 is cresting its peak, and if Sony's projections are on target I think we could see a fairly significant decline in Q1 next year. If I had to make a guess, then assuming a Nov. 2020 release for the PS5 I think we'll see similar to this for the PS4 for the next few years:

2018: 19.5M
2019: 15.5M
2020: 8M
2021: 4M
2022: 2M
2023-discontinuation: 1-2M

This would put the PS4 at close to 125M lifetime.

As for the Switch, I'm averse to making long-term estimates of yearly sales this early. It has yet to get a major price cut or hardware revision, and is still missing major titles like the first Gen VIII Pokemon game (due next year). Its hard to say whether its lifetime sales curve will more closely resemble, say, the 3DS or have a more typical sales curve for a Nintendo home console. However, my current lifetime sales guess assumes a maximum of 30M in the U.S., 25M in Europe, 20-25M in Japan, and 5-10M in other regions. I'm assuming it at least continues to outpace the 3DS by a healthy margin in the West, and does at most equal to the 3DS in Japan, depending on if it starts to catch up to it, which it has not so far. In fact, it's sold 45% fewer units so far this year in than what the 3DS sold in 2012, though to be fair the 3DS was absolutely killing it in Japan in 2012 (it was the third-best year for any system ever in Japan, following the DS's performances in 2006 & 2007) thanks in large part to the continued effects of the 2011 price drop as well as short-term boosts provided by the launches of the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf. The Switch meanwhile still costs substantially more than the 3DS did at this point in its life and has had no major hardware revisions. It still has the potential to catch up to the 3DS in Japan, but right now it's running a significant and growing LTD deficit that currently stands at about 2.7M units.

As for the XBO, there's really no way to make accurate guesses on worldwide sales without MS providing any information. The only truly accurate figures we have is for the U.S. & Japan, but those regions alone don't tell us the whole story. Assuming the U.S. represents 55-60% of the XBO's sales, it's probably sitting at most close to 40M units lifetime right now, maybe as few as 36M. At most, I see it selling roughly 60M units lifetime globally, though until MS gives us actual official shipment tallies we'll never know for sure.

Very informative.

I've discussed PS4 lifetime sales with some friends and I'll direct them to this post for info. You're an expert. Thanks!



Shadow1980 said:
Replicant said:

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?

The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been:

2013:   4.2M
2014: 14.3M
2015: 17.4M
2016: 17.5M
2017: 20.2M

So, VGC is overtracking it by a bit. In any case, the official sales figure for 2018 for the period of Jan. 1 to July 22 was 7.6M. After accounting for the different dates for Sony's mid-year updates in sell-through figures, the PS4 may be slightly up globally. 

It did 7.6 million in 29 weeks (~262k/week) this year while it did 7.0 million in 23 weeks last year (~304k/week).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

It did 7.6 million in 29 weeks (~262k/week) this year while it did 7.0 million in 23 weeks last year (~304k/week).

Hm. Maybe I did my math wrong.

*double checks*

Yep. I was off. Must have hit the wrong key on the calculator. About 1.13M per month on average this year, vs. 1.3M per month last year. A drop of about 13%. Not exactly flat or slightly up.

The six-week gap in the YTD estimates for 2017 & 2018 makes more detailed comparisons difficult, however. In any case, the U.S. & Japan were both up YoY through to the end of July, so that means the PS4 was down somewhere else. If both simple process of elimination and VGC numbers are any indication, it's mostly Europe. VGC has Europe down 16% YoY (or about 607k units) for the YTD period ending July 22.

In Japan, the PS4 is now down YoY for the year. In Europe, VGC data indicates that while Spider-Man has helped narrow the gap, it is still likely down YoY in the region as well. In the U.S. we're likely to start seeing the PS4 continue to slow down as well in the coming months, as if we eliminate the GoW and Spider-Man effects it is down a bit as well (Q1 was down 4.5% YoY, while the June-Aug. period was down 2.3% YoY, modest declines but declines nonetheless).

The PS4 is showing the signs of passing its peak. While a permanent price cut could stymie this decline, the PS4 is not guaranteed to get another one, and even if it does, it's almost certainly not going to be a big cut given historical precedent (no system has ever gotten a price cut larger than $50 this late in its life). Q1 is going to be the first big indicator as to whether the PS4 is clearly past its peak.



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Helloplite said:
Nintendo has slightly missed a great opportunity for switchs second year.

Let's see if they can turn it around otherwise no more than GBA levels - which will prompt them to return to the two systems strategy.

At end second year will be quite stronger than 1st year, its seems that Switch will not sell less than 18m in second year (even 20m is possible).

There is almost no chance they will go ever back to two separate platforms (actually they now have two platforms Switch and mobile), main reason why they went with one unified platform is because they couldn't effectively support any more two different platforms. So going back again to two different platforms after Switch that will be big succes in any case (80m+ LT is almost certain), doesnt make any sense, especially because game development is getting more complexing with bigger development teams how time is passing not less complexing or faster.

Also worth mentioning that games are selling great on Switch, much better than they did on Wii U and 3DS in same time period, so Nintendo already making very healthy profit with Switch despite still don't have big install base.



Switch just reached 30mil from Vgchart! In less than 2 years! Over 20% of the poll have completely underestimated it!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Actually, almost 33% was wrong, since it has surpassed 30 mil ;)



Two years ago i expected 50 million, but now i think it will sell at least 90 million with 100+ being a possibility



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PSN: melbye82

Best selling console of all time.

200 million plus.