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Forums - Gaming Discussion - How much does the switch have to sell to be a success?

vivster on 14 December 2016
zorg1000 said:
vivster said:
Anything less than 70m means Nintendo continues to decline in relevance.
Anything less than 50m shows a steep decline.
Anything less than 30m and they might as well go 3rd party.

what if their hardware sales decline but software sales increase? would that be considered declining in relevance?

Software sales as in Wii U and 3DS combined? That would be quite hard if hardware declines considerably.



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Ultrashroomz on 14 December 2016

Enough to maintain third-party support, and tons of software.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

fleischr on 14 December 2016

Nintendo consoles are never genuinely considered a success for any reason. They're either a "failure" or a "fad"....



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Ljink96 on 14 December 2016
vivster said:
Ljink96 said:
I think 40-50 Million is fair. But considering it won't be sold at a loss, anything they sell will technically be a success.

They won't lose on the hardware but what about software and R&D costs? Just selling hardware won't make them a profit.

Again if it isn't sold at a loss recouping R&D shouldn't take long either... Especially if Nintendo struck big with Nivida.  I know selling hardware doesn't automatically mean overall profit but they will be making profit off of each console sold by the rumors. They won't be losing money. R&D costs that accured over time and marketing, I'm not including in my thoughts. 



ktay95 on 14 December 2016
Ultrashroomz said:
Enough to maintain third-party support, and tons of software.

What 3rd party support though?? Would you count it if it had Japanese èrd parties on bard like 3DS but not the western ones??



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maxleresistant on 14 December 2016

if it replaces only the WiiU, I'd say 30-35 millions
if it replaces the WiiU and the 3DS, 80 millions

Right now Nintendo has still a fluid plan for the future, if the Switch is a huge success they'll probably just introduce new models to go along side it.

If it doesn't sell enough they'll just say "hey we told you it's a home console, so here is our newhandheld"

Nintendo always finds a way to never be wrong

 

What was the thing Miyamoto said a few weeks ago "I hope one day people will see the WiiU has a first steps towards  the future, towards the switch"

first step... lol.



Ultrashroomz on 14 December 2016
ktay95 said:

What 3rd party support though?? Would you count it if it had Japanese èrd parties on bard like 3DS but not the western ones??

Well, considering the 3DS was succesful, I would say so.

This is a hybrid though, so Japanese only support would only help so much.

Iunno I'm not an expert, don't quote me on this.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

vivster on 14 December 2016
Ljink96 said:
vivster said:

They won't lose on the hardware but what about software and R&D costs? Just selling hardware won't make them a profit.

Again if it isn't sold at a loss recouping R&D shouldn't take long either... Especially if Nintendo struck big with Nivida.  I know selling hardware doesn't automatically mean overall profit but they will be making profit off of each console sold by the rumors. They won't be losing money. R&D costs that accured over time and marketing, I'm not including in my thoughts. 

If you don't include those where is the point? It's all about recouping those costs by selling software. New consoles always amass a lot of debt before they are released and it's all about making back what you lost in development. Those costs won't be offset simply by selling the hardware at a small profit. You need to sell a lot of it and have low cost software selling a lot. Making videogames is fucking expensive and if you do the hardware it's even more.



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Pavolink on 14 December 2016

They need to make a good chunk of money. That's how much they need to sell.



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Ljink96 on 14 December 2016
vivster said:
Ljink96 said:

Again if it isn't sold at a loss recouping R&D shouldn't take long either... Especially if Nintendo struck big with Nivida.  I know selling hardware doesn't automatically mean overall profit but they will be making profit off of each console sold by the rumors. They won't be losing money. R&D costs that accured over time and marketing, I'm not including in my thoughts. 

If you don't include those where is the point? It's all about recouping those costs by selling software. New consoles always amass a lot of debt before they are released and it's all about making back what you lost in development. Those costs won't be offset simply by selling the hardware at a small profit. You need to sell a lot of it and have low cost software selling a lot. Making videogames is fucking expensive and if you do the hardware it's even more.

Yeah, thanks for the info but it's old news to me. I just wasn't including those figures. Nintendo usually recoups on software reguardless so I thought I wouldn't talk about it, but you're right.