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if it replaces only the WiiU, I'd say 30-35 millions
if it replaces the WiiU and the 3DS, 80 millions

Right now Nintendo has still a fluid plan for the future, if the Switch is a huge success they'll probably just introduce new models to go along side it.

If it doesn't sell enough they'll just say "hey we told you it's a home console, so here is our newhandheld"

Nintendo always finds a way to never be wrong

 

What was the thing Miyamoto said a few weeks ago "I hope one day people will see the WiiU has a first steps towards  the future, towards the switch"

first step... lol.