pray4mojo said:
Nothing suggests that sort of decline... apart from every major home console ever released. Unless PS4 manages to be the first console in history to keep it's first three year pace for almost 6 straight years, it's not going to happen.
In the first three years after the PS3 launched, the PS2 sold roughly 35 million units. The PS3 has managed to sell 13 in comparison. The PS4 is going to have to either be the first console in history to keep it's first three year sales level for 5-6 years, or it's going to have to sell at PS2 levels post PS5. Either way, that's asking alot.
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I don't know where you are getting your data. Or how you sre reading your data.
Here is the cummulative shipment data for the PS2 for its first 6 yesrs on the market. Note. CUMMULATIVE SHIPMENT, not sold through to consumers.
| March 31, 2000[2] |
1.41 |
|
|
1.41 |
| June 30, 2000[2] |
2.54 |
|
|
2.54 |
| September 30, 2000[2] |
3.52 |
|
|
3.52 |
| December 31, 2000[2] |
3.94 |
1.46 |
1 |
6.4 |
| March 31, 2001[2] |
4.75 |
3.01 |
2.85 |
10.61 |
| June 30, 2001[2] |
5.94 |
5.15 |
3.86 |
14.95 |
| September 30, 2001[2] |
6.85 |
8.24 |
4.48 |
19.57 |
| December 31, 2001[2] |
8.3 |
9.87 |
6.82 |
24.99 |
| March 31, 2002[2] |
9.65 |
10.59 |
8.44 |
28.68 |
| May 5, 2002[2] |
9.99 |
11.25 |
8.78 |
30.02 |
| December 31, 2002[2] |
12.47 |
21.2 |
15.92 |
49.59 |
| March 31, 2003[2] |
12.7 |
22.21 |
16.29 |
51.20 |
| September 6, 2003[2] |
14.17 |
26.42 |
19.44 |
60.03 |
| December 31, 2003[2] |
15.9 |
29.09 |
24.47 |
69.46 |
| January 13, 2004[2] |
16.18 |
29.26 |
24.56 |
70 |
| March 31, 2004[2] |
16.98 |
29.53 |
24.79 |
71.3 |
| December 31, 2004[2] |
19.47 |
32.86 |
29.06 |
81.39 |
| March 31, 2005[2] |
20.71 |
35.35 |
31.41 |
87.47 |
| November 29, 2005[2] |
22.22 |
40.65 |
37.14 |
100.01 |
| December 31, 2005[2] |
22.83 |
40.99 |
37.55 |
101.37 |
| March 31, 2006[2] |
23.27 |
41.82 |
38.6 |
103.69 |
From March 31st 2000, to march 31st 2003 Sony shipped 51.2M PS2s globally. in 36 months.
In around 36-37 months Sony has Sold through to consumers 50M+ PS4s meaning their shipments are even higher.
In the PS2s third and fourth year it shipped over 20M consoles. 22M in third 21M in 4th.
The PS4 is still selling at a significantly higher price than what the PS2 was selling for at this time in its life. So basically we are still yet to see a sub $200 PS4 and some of the biggest games of this generation that will be on the PS4 are still yet to be released.
Quite honestly, there is absolutely nothing, or no kinda data whatsoever that will suggest that the PS4 will not be able to hit 100M before the PS5 is launched. Especially if we are considering that comes out in 2019.
By the end of this year the PS4 will most likely be at 54/55M. All it need to do is sell 45/46M consoles in the next three years. That's an average of 15M per year. And it's still got at least one 18-20M selling year left in it. Meaning that for two of those three years all it has to do is hit a 12-13M average. And you don't see that happenning? There will be a decline, its got one more good year in it. Same as with the PS2 in its 4th year. And this is all going to be due to aggressive pricing. By this time next year we will have deals with PS4s as low as $170 for crying out loud. In its 5th and 6th years Sony won't be able to keep dropping the price, and thats when the decline sets in. But it's not gonna jist drop from a 18M selling year to a 5M year. It will be more like 18M> 15M> 10-12M.
What's funny is, all the data, trends and evidence suggests that it's going to happen. What are you basing it not happenning on?
Notice that with thre PS2 the decline started from the 5th and 6th year?
