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Asriel said:
Expecting those Wii U titles to get much higher doesn't make much sense. Look at Wii U hardware shipments and shipment targets. 560k shipped so far this FY, 800k target. That means Nintendo expect to ship 240k in the next six months, including the holiday season and the launch of Breath of the Wild on Wii U. Has the system already been discontinued? That 240k would take the system up to 13.5 million life-time, which isn't that far above the initial sales expectations for the device in its first 18 months on sale (3 million or so at launch, 9 million in the first full FY). I think a lot of those Wii U titles are hitting their ceiling, sales wise, because there aren't going to be many new owners to sell to.
It does when you take into account this holiday season, as well as all of 2017, and even all of 2018. Nintendo titles in general, tend to sell around 33-50% of their yearly numbers during that October-November-December holiday period. I mean, Mario Kart 8 sold an additional 300k from June to September to go from 7.70 to 8 million, imagine what it'll do this holiday! It's passing Super Mario Kart, I'm sure of it now. As for Splatoon, it only needs 430k to reach 5 million, very plausible on an install base where the games on a system that has a very high attach rate, even if it is the Wii U. It's getting a big bump this holiday season, rest assured. As for my 6 million prediction on NSMBU, OK so the verdict is still out on that one, same with 3D World, but I'm willing to give those 2 the benefit of the doubt because it's Mario.
3DS has done decently, with shipments up 19% year over year, and an increase in shipment estimates from 5 to 6 million for the FY. For anyone still wondering why 3DS is getting software support ahead of Wii U: 3DS is still a viable system, Wii U is basically dead. The fact Pokemon Go has contributed to higher 3DS shipment expectations for this year is encouraging for Nintendo if they want mobile consumers to migrate onto Switch, but it needs to be stressed Go is an unprecedented success for a mobile title. How mobile success will translate into Switch sales in the future is still up in the air, but Go may have given Nintendo some valuable data.
I think how well GO success' translates into Switch sales will largely depend on the Switch itself, more speficically, what it's launch price will be and it's lineup. Which leads me to your 3rd point.
Switch shipments for this FY are around 2 million units, according to Kimishima, which suggests to me they're managing their expectations for the device. 3DS's launch target was 4 million, and it reached 3.6 million, by way of comparison. It's no wonder, given the software figures, that Kart, Splatoon, Mario and Zelda are the early focus for Switch. I'd hope Nintendo are bringing Pokemon to Switch in a major way before too long, and that Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion 3 are also in the works.
If the Switch can somehow get to a $249 price tag, $299 maximum, with a strong lineup of games right out the gate, that 2 million COULD be plausible, it's going to be tough, because Kimishima said they're expecting it to sell that many units through the end of March... when the system is launching IN March, so it'll only have a few weeks to do it. It's certainly possible if the price, lineup, and hype surrounding it is just right, I mean the PS4 was able to do it, but that was during the November, with 3 weeks of data and Black Friday going for it, so I don't know how Nintendo's going to pull of 2 million in just a few weeks in March, the lineup has to be strong and the price for the system is going to have to be steal if it's going to do it in my view, and knowing how much Nintendo HATES to sell at a loss, I doubt it'll be a steal, but we'll see.
And I think Gen 8 of Pokemon will be on Switch, if Switch is the one and only system they're making and developing for, than it HAS to be on Switch, because if it were on mobile... oh dear God the shitstorm that would follow for GameFreak would be merciless.
And I think Animal Crossing is a safe bet and I HOPE Luigi's Mansion 3 is a safe bet.
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