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If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

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How many NXs will sell WW Lifetime?

0 to 10 Million 84 14.56%
 
10.1 - 20 Million 82 14.21%
 
20.1 - 30 Million 108 18.72%
 
30.1 - 50 Million 123 21.32%
 
50.1 - 75 Million 83 14.38%
 
75 Million + !!!! = Nintendomination 97 16.81%
 
Total:577
Normchacho said:
It's a handheld first and foremost it seems, so it could do pretty well. I think a big part of it's success will be decided by if Nintendo continues to sell the 3DS along side it.

I'd say...anywhere from 30 to 60 million units.

 

The 3DS will probably still be sold in stores for a while, but they're not going to support it.



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teigaga said:
midrange said:

Has any handheld ever successfully been priced as a console? People won't be willing to drop more than $250 for a handheld. Just look at the 3ds. It was a flop when it started out at $250, but it was saved when it dropped to $180

We can't ignore that it is both a handheld and console (and likely a tablet). This will certainly effective its percieved value and ability to sell at a higher price $299.

The 3DS was averaging 80k a week when it was performing badly, with no compelling software and no clear justification for its fairly high price (unless you see 3D as justification). 

 

 

 

The 3ds had good sales early on due to early adopters. Even the wii u had a respectable first 3 months (comparable to the Xbox one actually).

That price will simply be too much for a handheld (people won't be interested in the console portion since the competition is killing it). Merging the 2 ideas is actually what leads me to believe that it will drag below 20 million (rough estimate until actual details come out)



1 billion



zero129 said:
potato_hamster said:

You know... You're pretty much describing the Vita, right?

"just imagine a handheld that can play games looking much better then the PSP, Can plug into your TV, Will be able to play all Sony's Console and Handheld games and will have a ton of Japan support."

That describes what Sony was pitching with the Vita when it was lauched. We all know how that fared.

No i didnt and also no The Vita didnt play all PS4 games....

Also Nintendo has a great record in the Handheld market Sony does not.

No, it didn't play all PS4 games. It came out well before the PS4. It was marketed as a device that would be able to play PS3 games, however. They designed it to be easier to port PS3 games to it. Did that work out well? Well no. They tried to get all of the major franchises to it, but only ended up getting a handful of major third party games on board (Borderlands, FIFA and Assassin's Creed comes to mind) But many major Sony home console franchises appeared on the Vita like Uncharted, God of War, LittleBigPlanet, Killzone, etc. That was the objective, it just missed the mark. Besides, whose to say Nintendo is going to do a better job of it? Look how badly the Wii U missed the mark.

As for Sony not having a great record in the handheld market, they still have the top two selling non-Nintendo handhelds of all time. The only company to ever come as close to Nintendo was Sony. So while I would never say they have had a "good" record in the handheld market, I would say they have a solid record. Both the PSP and Vita were solid platforms and took the fight to Nintendo in a way that no other company ever had.



midrange said:
teigaga said:

We can't ignore that it is both a handheld and console (and likely a tablet). This will certainly effective its percieved value and ability to sell at a higher price $299.

The 3DS was averaging 80k a week when it was performing badly, with no compelling software and no clear justification for its fairly high price (unless you see 3D as justification). 

 

 

 

The 3ds had bad sales early on due to early adopters. Even the wii u had a respectable first 3 months (comparable to the Xbox one actually).

That price will simply be too much for a handheld (people won't be interested in the console portion since the competition is killing it). Merging the 2 ideas is actually what leads me to believe that it will drag below 20 million (rough estimate until actual details come out)

It being a hybrid handheld/tablet is exactly why it won't need to compete against PS4/X1. The tablet market is still huge (200m+ units a year) and many sell for well over $299. A premium spec tablet that lets you play Mario Kart (with splitscreen) and Pokemon will be quite a compelling purchase for many who are familar with nintendo but aren't necessarily interested in a dedicated Nintendo console in 2016. Theres very little info to go off of course, we don't even know whether Nintendo will push it as a tablet but I think it gonna sell like hot cakes at $299. 

 



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About 80 million.

Considering nVidia did the Shield TV with Tegra X1 at 199 in 2015, I think Nintendo can do the NX with Tegra X2 at around 250 in 2017 - putting it's power level safely in the X1-PS4 range



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Well, if it's priced well with those specs, I could see it at least selling on 3DS level, maybe more.



Einsam_Delphin said:
Landguy said:

You kind of hit it right on the head.  When I predicted in the OP that it would hit 25 million, I was surmising that it would end up at $300+ at retail.  Knowing that, i think it will hurt the sales long term.  Even if people rush out to get one, some type of tablet or cell phone will match its power in 2 years.  Any handheld that gets developed now, needs to be planned with a short lifespan.  The exponential increases in power for tablets and phones every year is amazing.

If the NX isn't $300+, then it will be very underpowered and the whole setup will be built to a quality to low to be taken seriously long term.  If Eurogamer is right, the NX will fail either way...

 

Yep, just like the underpowered 3DS failed... oh wait. As a handheld it's not even underpowered, stronger than the Vita and will remain the most powerful handheld for the generation as Sony wont be making another portable. It doesn't matter that a tablet/cell phone is more powerful when they don't at all get the kind same kinds of games, again see 3DS.

Also, still don't know why you keep thinking it'll be $300+. A powerful wannabe third party console would be a terrible terrible idea at this point when there's already a bunch of third party machines on the market with more on the way. It's far too late to try weasling in on an established market, and the XB1 isn't even doing that well so very unlikely would Nintendo fair any better. So yes that route would definitely fail, but a route focusing instead on their strong suit being the handheld market can very much succeed as it always has.

It may seem logical to compare it to the 3DS.  But the 3DS failed at launch($250).  If this has the capabilities that we are discussing here, it will cost at least $300.  That is the point.  Not powerful enough to suceed as a console yet too expensive to succeed as a handheld.  Also, comparing it to the 3DS when the handheld market is doing nothing but shrinking isn't going to work really either.  If the 3DS came out today(assuming technically comparable for today), it's total sales might only be 1/2 or 2/3 what they are.  I am not saying a NEW dedicated handheld from Nintendo can't be successful, I am saying the version(hybrid) as indicated in the Eurogamer article will not be.  Even if Nintendo released a new dedicated handheld today, it might only have a peak possibility of 40-50 Million sales at most.



It is near the end of the end....

between 15-25 million. majority of its sales will be from japan. and it will basically sell that much due to animal crossing and pokemon



Soundwave said:
50-60 million would be huge for Nintendo. I think they'd be quite happy with that plus mobile is going to make them billions over the next 5 years.

i think that would be a disaster for nintendo.  as a handheld/console hybrid this is replacing both 3DS and wiiU.  nintendo would have to do some serious downsizing to see their platforms contract to be only 50-60 million.