About 80 million.

Considering nVidia did the Shield TV with Tegra X1 at 199 in 2015, I think Nintendo can do the NX with Tegra X2 at around 250 in 2017 - putting it's power level safely in the X1-PS4 range

It may seem logical to compare it to the 3DS.  But the 3DS failed at launch($250).  If this has the capabilities that we are discussing here, it will cost at least $300.  That is the point.  Not powerful enough to suceed as a console yet too expensive to succeed as a handheld.  Also, comparing it to the 3DS when the handheld market is doing nothing but shrinking isn't going to work really either.  If the 3DS came out today(assuming technically comparable for today), it's total sales might only be 1/2 or 2/3 what they are.  I am not saying a NEW dedicated handheld from Nintendo can't be successful, I am saying the version(hybrid) as indicated in the Eurogamer article will not be.  Even if Nintendo released a new dedicated handheld today, it might only have a peak possibility of 40-50 Million sales at most.

between 15-25 million. majority of its sales will be from japan. and it will basically sell that much due to animal crossing and pokemon

i think that would be a disaster for nintendo.  as a handheld/console hybrid this is replacing both 3DS and wiiU.  nintendo would have to do some serious downsizing to see their platforms contract to be only 50-60 million.

I won't bother embarrasing myself before we even know about the console. I don't want to look back on this thread in 2-3 years and know that I was horribly wrong.

40m lifetime. Not great but they can't expect better releasing in the middle of the generation.

18 millions if no NX+.

If NX+, 25 millions.

Isn't that what they said they wanted to do though?  They want to streamline their game making process to reduce costs and redundancy.  So, downsizing is almost inevitable.

As far as the 50-60 million number goes, that has to be considered a complete home run on their part.  The handheld market only shrinking, and the turn times on technology won't allow systems to go more than 3-5 years without major changes.  

Probably 35-40 million units lifetime.

What exactly are the capabilitys we're discussing? They said they're using Tegra, and the Nvidia Shield using it which came out last year is $200. That's not at all too expensive for a handheld that'll have far greater value than the 3DS ever had. The handheld market is smaller sure, but they can still sell a healthy amount of systems. 50 million sales would be perfectly fine for them, but I'm confident they can do even better. They wont have the same issues that they did with the 3DS.

Because Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Smash, Metroid, Splatoon, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc. exploded? I think people don't realize that this'll be the sole system to play Nintendo games on, and as such their library is going to give the NX a sizeable base by default, I'd say 30 million at the absolute very least if Nintendo majorly screws up.

It would actually be awesome because it means all their games are selling on a well sized installbase, not just half of them like how it is currently. Imagine how much better Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Woolly World and so ons woulda done selling to 50 million users instead of just 10 million.