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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Handheld vs Mobile Gaming Revenue Estamate

Yeah... it's unfortunate because I like handheld gaming but I think it's definitely going to keep declining, I expect Nintendo's next handheld to sell less than the 3ds and I don't expect another handheld from sony at all.



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Mobile gaming is going to crush console gaming in sales period.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

captain carot said:
OdinHades said:
People keep telling me 3DS is dead in the water. People also keep telling me X1 isn't selling too bad, just worse than PS4. How does that make sense? What am I missing here?

Compared to what? Compared to the first years of Xbox 360 Xbone pulled decent overall numbers. There's a big but though. Without doing decent numbers in continental europe we'll see a heavy decline in overall numbers.

PS4 Neo and Scorpio might extend the current consoles lifetime and could possibly change the sales ratio a bit. But i'm pretty sure in the end Xbox One will do way worse than 360.

On the other hand and comparing that to DS/3DS Xbox wont see that massive decline i think. At the same time Playstation is growing. But that's taking potential buyers away from Xbox.

An interesting question would be how many people play with one device though. Home consoles went from kids rooms into living rooms. If i were to make a guess i'd say that more people play with a certain number of consoles than back in the old days.

The thing is the PS NEO and Scorpio is not wheather these consoles will make the generation longer but by how many years longer will this generation be because of the upgrade.



ZhugeEX said:

Come on buddy. This reads like a fanboy post. 

I don't see why. I don't considering post my opinion a fanboy thing, at all, expecially cause usually i believe i am objective, even when i talk about Nintendo. Octimist, maybe, at most, but not a fanboy.

I've said many times that the handheld market as a whole is irrelevant and dead. I've said similar things about the home console market in Japan as well. 

There is a difference between saying that a market is irrelevant and saying is death. Saying is irrelevant could mean that overall is not as big as others markets, indeed yes handhelds are irrelevant if compared to mobile, like home console are irrelevant if compared to handhelds in Japan. This doesn't mean the whole market is DEATH. Until there is even only a system which is selling great, this mean that there is still space for that market. If you wanna my opinion, we can say that a market is "death" only when is seriusly all is done. But until Nintendo will always sells massive numbers like +70 million or even only about 40/50 million, that will still be an active market, maybe small? Maybe irrevelant? But definitively not death. 

And you know my concerns around the home console market worldwide when it comes to hardware sales, that's where my 150m number comes from. Me pointing out that the install base will be less than most people think, and I made those forecasts at a time when most analysts were putting out numbers like 200m+. 

But you and I both know that whilst the home console market has seen a contraction in the number of players and retail publishers, it's also seen a more core audience emerge who are spending more on games, digital content and services this generation. The numbers for both hardware, software and overall engagement/spend are not even comparable between the Home Console market and Dedicated Handheld market. 

I don't think this really matter at all. It's just that 3DS recently didn't got big games, and even if so, home console always get more games thanks third party, this isn't new.

Asking me to say that PS Vita must be dead too isn't really helping your case here. It sounds like you think I have an agenda against only the 3DS or something. As i mentioned above, I've talked many times about how handhelds overall are irrelevant and the PS Vita backs up my point. In fact I even wrote an article on how big of a failure the handheld was and why it failed. In fact it did so bad that Sony ended up writing off a lot of stock iirc. 

http://gearnuke.com/playstation-vita-fail/

I... never asked to say PSVita is death? I already knew what are you'r thoughs, even just thanks you'r usual jokes of "best selling Vita games this month". Dunno where this part come from.

The 3DS has done considerably better in comparison due to the way it was designed, marketed, priced and due to the fact that it had a lot of desirable software initially. But that inital success was short lived and in the last 2 or 3 years we've seen a really sharp decline in HW/SW sales and user engagement. There are a lot of people who may have bought a 3DS but recent data has shown that only a fraction of the install base still use it. Like I've been saying in this thread and before, the usage case for handheld gaming has now been replaced by mobile gaming and that's caused the majority of that audience to shift towards mobile gaming. There are other reasons as well which have caused many in the West to abandon dedicated handheld gaming in favor of Home Console or PC gaming. Add all these reasons up and the obvious conclusion to me is that handheld gaming is no longer relevant and ultimately dead. It may be a strong word to use but I'm only using it to stress the point. 

So even you considering "death" a strong world.

Recent data show that 3DS shipped +7 million in the last two years (and sales are even better, cause it still suffer from overshipments in the firsts years). That's not bad. could not be amazing, but is far from death, or bad.

Is just not amazing like selling 12-15 million like one time, but can you really say is so bad?

I know i already said this more times, but since you didn't replied to this, those are about XB1 levels. I see many guys saying XBO is doing horrible, death outside USA and bullshit like this, and always like to see you saying those people have not idea of what they are talking about. We both agree here, the situation isn't really good and all, but all considering those are decent sales. Even if when all is well and done it will be half of 360 sales, like 3DS with DS. so, if you don't considering XBO bad and all, why you did it with 3DS? Is really because the decline with the DS, the not really strong software sales reently, or there is others which i don't know? Honest question

.



OdinHades said:
People keep telling me 3DS is dead in the water. People also keep telling me X1 isn't selling too bad, just worse than PS4. How does that make sense? What am I missing here?

The xb1 is more profitable when it comes to software while the 3DS hasn't been moving as much software compared to the xb1.



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RolStoppable said:
Predicting that handheld revenue will severely drop during the year a new generation of handhelds is going to launch is... plain stupid?

Then there's the obvious catch that almost everything of the handheld pie will belong to Nintendo while the mobile pie is shared between hundreds of companies.

If there are NX games that are distributed in a copy that works both in the handheld and the home console (like it's going to happen with Neo and standard PS4) they may not even be able to track handheld software revenue. Or are they going to have one guy at each store asking the customers if the Nintendo games they're buying are going to be used in a NX handheld or home console?



tak13 said:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

Tell to this guy to also do a comparison with GBA! Enough with this unfair comparison just to spread negativity for Nintendo...

When it comes to home consoles, people like him, make comparisons with wii and without for obvious reasons., but when it comes to handheld consoles, we don't see any comparison with GBA, 6th gen only handheld console... Always ds, why? Hmmmm...

While I don't agree with his conclusion, I don't see why you can't compare the 3DS with the DS. They are way closer than the GBA. We also have to consider that the GBA had his lifetime sales cut short because it was launched in 2001 and the DS just killed it in 2004. The 3DS has 5 years right now without a successor to kill its legs and it seem likely that it will get 1 extra year.



RolStoppable said:
RolStoppable said:
Predicting that handheld revenue will severely drop during the year a new generation of handhelds is going to launch is... plain stupid?

Then there's the obvious catch that almost everything of the handheld pie will belong to Nintendo while the mobile pie is shared between hundreds of companies.
Aquamarine said:

I don't understand why you decided to bring me into the conversation.

I just want to show a vertical slice of the console industry in the USA because that's literally the only part of the traditional industry that gets talked about as a revenue driver.

"Nobody cares" if I share NPD 360 and PS3 numbers, eh? Guess I'll stop sharing them, then. No skin off my back. I'm getting too old for this juvenile nonsense.

I brought you into this because you have access to sales data similar to ZhugeEX, and you share his sentiments.

And yes, people here would rather get 3DS and Vita numbers than 360 and PS3 numbers when the number of systems you are allowed to give number for is limited to five. Feel free to make a thread to ask which five systems the community here wants to get numbers for. Or let someone else make it and then in the future months provide the numbers that have been asked for.

This is an exceptionally ungrateful, crass post, the kind of post that compels me to stop going through the effort to share data when there are a million things I'd rather be doing instead. I'm disappointed in you, RolStoppable. Maybe in the future think about how your posts come across and how they might hurt people's feelings.



RolStoppable said:
Aquamarine said:

This is an exceptionally ungrateful, crass post, the kind of post that compels me to stop going through the effort to share data when there are a million things I'd rather be doing instead. I'm disappointed in you, RolStoppable. Maybe in the future think about how your posts come across and how they might hurt people's feelings.

It hurts your feelings to read that 3DS and Vita numbers are more interesting than 360 and PS3 numbers?

Also, am I wrong in saying that the NPD allows you to share hardware numbers for five systems and that the choice for said five systems is up to you? Substituting two of those systems for two others wouldn't change the effort you have to make, but it would be greatly appreciated by the community here (myself included) who has moved on from seventh generation systems and still cares about the handheld market.

"No one cares about the data you share. How about you actually share data that matters?"

That's what I'm getting from your posts, and it's depressing as hell.



Mummelmann said:
I still love remembering the good old days when people told me I was an idiot because I said mobile/tablet gaming would seriously damage dedicated handheld gaming. Good times.

Where you referiing to 7th gen or in general?