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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2016 (Mar 21 - Mar 27)

Soundwave said:
Teeqoz said:

OMFG

The development costs don't matter here. Development costs only matter when discussing if it made financial sense to make a PS4 version in the first place. Now that they've already decided to make a PS4 version, those costs are already incurred and are irrelevant. What's important now is to maximize revenue from game sales, and the higher the PS4 version's share of the total sales, the higher the total revenue from game sales will be, because it will drive up ASP. (Average Selling Price)

 

I mean, do you not agree that the higher the PS4's share of total sales is, the more revenue SE will get? Because that isn't "biased" logic. Again, development costs would only matter if we were talking about SE only developping a 3DS version vs SE developping both versions. However that's not the scenarios we are talking about. We are comparing two scenarios were both versions will be made either way, so developping costs will be equal regardless of when each version releases.

Facepalm. 

Of course development costs matter.

The profit margin on both versions is likely about the same, so I don't think SE cares much either way as they get paid the same. Yes the PS4/NX versions will have a higher price, but that's negated by a higher development cost. 

And there likely is an NX version here to factor in also. Depending on what the NX is I actually wouldn't be that shocked if the PS4 version might end up being the lowest selling version. 

Development budget is fixed cost. The cost of developping games does not depend on how many copies the game sells. If the development budget is 20 million, it won't suddenly cost 25 million to develop if it sells more than expected. Since both versions are getting developped regardless, no, development costs don't matter after the games have bloody been developped. Those costs don't make SE get paid less per copy.

 

To simplify:

 

Hypothetical development cost for PS4: 35 million $

Hypothetical development cost for 3DS: 7 million $

Combined development cost: 42 million $

SE revenue per copy (PS4 version): 40$ (60$ selling price - 20$ or 33% retailer margin. Probably a bit on the high side, but whatever)

SE revenue per copy (3DS version): 30$ (40$ selling price - 10$ or 25% retailer margin. Lower retailer margin for handheld games, just to show you that even if we skew in in the 3DS's favour, it's irrelevant. )

Now, if total sales are at 4 million:

Scenario 1: 40/60 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.6 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.4 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 136 million $

SE profit (not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 136 million $ - 42 million $ = 94 million $

 

Scenario 2: 30/70 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.8 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 132 million $

SE profit (again not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 132 million $ - 42 million = 90 million $

 

Scenario 3: 50/50 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 140 million $

SE profit (not including, you guessed it, other fixed costs) = 140 million $ - 42 million $ = 98 million $

 

As you can see, because the development budget doesn't change regardless (unless you are talking about not developping the PS4 version at all), it is more profitable for SE if the PS4 gets a bigger platform split. That the PS4's dev budget is higher changes absolutely nothing with that fact. Zero, zilch, nada.

 

Now, as to how this pertains to my original point for why they shouldn't release the 3DS version long before the PS4 version: That will make people pick the 3DS version over the PS4 version, because they don't want to wait, and most people won't want to pay for both versions. This will lead to the PS4 getting a smaller portion of the sales, which in turn leads to less profit for SE.

 

Maybe you are thinking about which platform's version will be most profitable? Because that's an entirely different (and irrelevant to this discussion) question. As long as both versions are getting made, the bigger the portion of sales the PS4 gets, the higher the revenue for SE, and the higher the profit for SE. Dev budget is irrelevant to this, just like I said, because dev budget remains the same regardless of platform split.



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BlowoverKing said:

Does anyone know what the record is for consecutive weeks in the top 20 is? I'd imagine it's one of the earlier DS games, I seem to remember one of the Brain Age games sticking around for awhile. 

Might be hard to verify, but original pokemon? I think it charted for several years.



Teeqoz said:
Soundwave said:

Facepalm. 

Of course development costs matter.

The profit margin on both versions is likely about the same, so I don't think SE cares much either way as they get paid the same. Yes the PS4/NX versions will have a higher price, but that's negated by a higher development cost. 

And there likely is an NX version here to factor in also. Depending on what the NX is I actually wouldn't be that shocked if the PS4 version might end up being the lowest selling version. 

Development budget is fixed cost. The cost of developping games does not depend on how many copies the game sells. If the development budget is 20 million, it won't suddenly cost 25 million to develop if it sells more than expected. Since both versions are getting developped regardless, no, development costs don't matter after the games have bloody been developped. Those costs don't make SE get paid less per copy.

 

To simplify:

 

Hypothetical development cost for PS4: 35 million $

Hypothetical development cost for 3DS: 7 million $

Combined development cost: 42 million $

SE revenue per copy (PS4 version): 40$ (60$ selling price - 20$ or 33% retailer margin. Probably a bit on the high side, but whatever)

SE revenue per copy (3DS version): 30$ (40$ selling price - 10$ or 25% retailer margin. Lower retailer margin for handheld games, just to show you that even if we skew in in the 3DS's favour, it's irrelevant. )

Now, if total sales are at 4 million:

Scenario 1: 40/60 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.6 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.4 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 136 million $

SE profit (not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 136 million $ - 42 million $ = 94 million $

 

Scenario 2: 30/70 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.8 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 132 million $

SE profit (again not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 132 million $ - 42 million = 90 million $

 

Scenario 3: 50/50 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 140 million $

SE profit (not including, you guessed it, other fixed costs) = 140 million $ - 42 million $ = 98 million $

 

As you can see, because the development budget doesn't change regardless (unless you are talking about not developping the PS4 version at all), it is more profitable for SE if the PS4 gets a bigger platform split. That the PS4's dev budget is higher changes absolutely nothing with that fact. Zero, zilch, nada.

 

Now, as to how this pertains to my original point for why they shouldn't release the 3DS version long before the PS4 version: That will make people pick the 3DS version over the PS4 version, because they don't want to wait, and most people won't want to pay for both versions. This will lead to the PS4 getting a smaller portion of the sales, which in turn leads to less profit for SE.

 

Maybe you are thinking about which platform's version will be most profitable? Because that's an entirely different (and irrelevant to this discussion) question. As long as both versions are getting made, the bigger the portion of sales the PS4 gets, the higher the revenue for SE, and the higher the profit for SE. Dev budget is irrelevant to this, just like I said, because dev budget remains the same regardless of platform split.

''claps''

Nice detailed post.



tbone51 said:
Damn wiiu shortages! Splatoon suffering hard! It won't become the best selling HC game this gen at this rate :( (still a chance though)

So yes, Yodobashi got some shipment during these last days. But, not available today.



 

OneKartVita said:
This week PS4 catches up about 30k on the Wii U. It's coming for that #1 spot and fast!!

I think it will totally catch up even before FF XV release, and then FF XV will dig the hole between them by 200k at least for the first weeks + with christmas, the difference will probably be 500-600k in favor of PS4.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

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Aerys said:
OneKartVita said:
This week PS4 catches up about 30k on the Wii U. It's coming for that #1 spot and fast!!

I think it will totally catch up even before FF XV release, and then FF XV will dig the hole between them by 200k at least for the first weeks + with christmas, the difference will probably be 500-600k in favor of PS4.

I like the sound of that!



Teeqoz said:
Soundwave said:

Facepalm. 

Of course development costs matter.

The profit margin on both versions is likely about the same, so I don't think SE cares much either way as they get paid the same. Yes the PS4/NX versions will have a higher price, but that's negated by a higher development cost. 

And there likely is an NX version here to factor in also. Depending on what the NX is I actually wouldn't be that shocked if the PS4 version might end up being the lowest selling version. 

Development budget is fixed cost. The cost of developping games does not depend on how many copies the game sells. If the development budget is 20 million, it won't suddenly cost 25 million to develop if it sells more than expected. Since both versions are getting developped regardless, no, development costs don't matter after the games have bloody been developped. Those costs don't make SE get paid less per copy.

 

To simplify:

 

Hypothetical development cost for PS4: 35 million $

Hypothetical development cost for 3DS: 7 million $

Combined development cost: 42 million $

SE revenue per copy (PS4 version): 40$ (60$ selling price - 20$ or 33% retailer margin. Probably a bit on the high side, but whatever)

SE revenue per copy (3DS version): 30$ (40$ selling price - 10$ or 25% retailer margin. Lower retailer margin for handheld games, just to show you that even if we skew in in the 3DS's favour, it's irrelevant. )

Now, if total sales are at 4 million:

Scenario 1: 40/60 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.6 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.4 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 136 million $

SE profit (not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 136 million $ - 42 million $ = 94 million $

 

Scenario 2: 30/70 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 1.2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2.8 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 132 million $

SE profit (again not including other fixed costs, like marketing, distribution, shipping) = 132 million $ - 42 million = 90 million $

 

Scenario 3: 50/50 PS4 vs 3DS split

SE revenue: 2 million PS4 copies * 40$ per copy + 2 million 3DS copies * 30$ per copy = 140 million $

SE profit (not including, you guessed it, other fixed costs) = 140 million $ - 42 million $ = 98 million $

 

As you can see, because the development budget doesn't change regardless (unless you are talking about not developping the PS4 version at all), it is more profitable for SE if the PS4 gets a bigger platform split. That the PS4's dev budget is higher changes absolutely nothing with that fact. Zero, zilch, nada.

 

Now, as to how this pertains to my original point for why they shouldn't release the 3DS version long before the PS4 version: That will make people pick the 3DS version over the PS4 version, because they don't want to wait, and most people won't want to pay for both versions. This will lead to the PS4 getting a smaller portion of the sales, which in turn leads to less profit for SE.

 

Maybe you are thinking about which platform's version will be most profitable? Because that's an entirely different (and irrelevant to this discussion) question. As long as both versions are getting made, the bigger the portion of sales the PS4 gets, the higher the revenue for SE, and the higher the profit for SE. Dev budget is irrelevant to this, just like I said, because dev budget remains the same regardless of platform split.

Bloody brilliant post.  

Seriousclappingman.gif

 

Couldn't have made it any clearer and it's why I think PS4 version launches with 3DS version. 



I wonder when will SFV and DQB will come back to the top 20.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

In a few weeks could minecraft vita be selling more than it was in the equivalent week 52 weeks earlier (back in 2015).

Would be insane, but then again it shouldn't be underestimated anymore. Such a leggy beast.



Jranation said:
I wonder when will SFV and DQB will come back to the top 20.

Hmmm.... If I had to take a wild guess I'd say....... never.

Seriously, what kind of question is this?



PSN: extremeM

PlayStation Vita Japanese Software Sales (Media Create Physical/ Famitsu Digital)