ethomaz said:
hiska-kun said:
I think you have a wrong way to say you're being optimistic and conservative.
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PS4 is already up on weekly basis this year over 50% and more games will be released this year than last year.
These is no way PS4 will do less than 1.5m.
Even with Feb launch (400k units) PS4 will be up this year after July.
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Think a little before saying such things.
Right now the ps4 is at 580k for the year (560k if we split the difference with famitsu), the next 8 weeks will be slow summer months with no releases.I can see ps4 sales easily bellow 10k for those weeks, so let's say sales are at 650k starting september.
Then metal gear 5 releases, a game severely overestimated. Metal gear 4 sold 800k ltd on ps3. the home console decline alone would mean MG5 on ps4 would be lucky to reack 600k, but the game also being on ps3 means it should be lucky if it has an ltd of 500k. that would mean a 200-250k first week and maybe a good hardware boost for a week or two, cause most buyers already own the console. I think it can end september with 700k-720k for the year.
October + November sales should push it to 800k for the year, then december numbers similar to those of 2014 would give it around 950k for the whole 2015, maybe 1 million. margin of error means it could be anywhere between 900k and 1.1 million, but nowhere near 1.5 million, or 1.4, or 1.3, and even 1.2 sounds like a HUGE stretch.
You are also underestimating Wii U a lot, since it actually has some releases during summer and is much more likely to get a price drop than ps4, not to mention it has a much bigger holiday boost. with yoshi's wooly world and devil's third releasing, it at least avoids a game drought and can keep stable sales with the help of splatoon legs and updates. Should be easily over 400k starting september. If it gets a pricecut along mario maker, sales can really increse going into holidays with titles like star fox and smt x fire emblem, as well as the smaller ones like animal crossing spin off and mario tennis. I can see sales at 600-650k starting december, and december sales putting it at 800-900k. actually, I think it could be anywhere between 800k and 1 million for 2015.