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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Last Gen Sold 280m Consoles. How much will this gen sell? Predictions

Ryng on 06 May 2015
teigaga said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

The truly worst scenario:

2015: 7,000,000

2016: 6,000,000

2017: 3,500,000

2018: 1,500,000

Lifetime: 29,000,000

don't see what would warrant this especially the almost 50% drop in 2017.

So a $199-299 pricetag, Gears 4, Elderscrolls 7 and Grand Theft Auto 6 and ALL the other third party games aren't going to move hardware? Or is everyone in the states suddenly going to side with Playstation? I'll agree to disagree here

Why no? A lot of console are super dropped in a year... look GameCube, 3DS, Wii, PSP, ecc...

I just think that by 2017 XBO will become a old console, the pricedrop will be nothing as for now, and yes, the PlayStation will eat the XBO sales...

 

Any way damn, stop, that is just my prediction why your guys reply only me and not the other prediction? xD



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teigaga on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
teigaga said:

Those expectations are from early in the gen or before it properly started, I'm sure people thought PS3 would do 100m+ back in 2006. That thread is from 2008, so 2-3 years into the generation.

The 40,000,000 / 80,000,000 PSVita and Wii U was predict in 2013... when PSvita was selling super badly by one year, and Wii U after a succes launch, 3 badly month.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=157842&page=1

Damn, some people have predict Wii U and PSVita at +120,000,000!!!

The same for 3DS....

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167730

Some people have predict 165,000,000... in September 2013.

Oh well I stand corrected although Wii U predictions were still way too early in march 2013 to compare to ones made for PS3/360 in 2008 (3years after 360, 2+ after PS3). Those threads were in Nintendo Discussions, so that explains the grossly inflated numbers lol.

I'd like to see how predictions from general sales threads were towards the end of 2013 for Vita/Wi U. I imagine they were smaller 



thedawghousev2 on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
Paatar said:


How is 30m more realistic than 50m? Xbox One is outpacing the 360 and with not even all its games out yet, (like Halo 5 and etc) I highly doubt that it will be closer to 30m than 50m.

Yes, and 3DS have sold more than the DS at the start of the gen... what is happen?

Look the XB360 sales in 2011 damn, 300,000 to 500,000 ALL NPD.

XBO is not going to sell this massive numbers, not even close.

ryng, i agree for the most part with your prediction that xbox one will sell around 30-40 million units, but you have to stop presenting your predictions as if they are a fact.



JRPGfan on 06 May 2015
sales2099 said:

200 million tops.

- Where Wii tapped into a new demographic, there is no such thing happening this time.
- PS4 will sell so well that it will actually choke the potential from Xbox One/WiiU, where as all 3 thrived last gen.
- Nintendo/MS will be frustrated with sales this gen to the point where they prematurely start a new gen, getting a head start on PS5 and thus cutting PS4's lifespan short.

Fun fact: MS made the (now evident) mistake of waiting 8 (8!!!!) years since 360's launch to launch the Xbox One. This was due to sustain its profitability. MS in the 6th gen waited only 4 years to drop its first console, due to severe lack of profitability in part to the clear monopoly of the PS2.

This gen could end as early as 2017.....either Nintendo or MS could jump the gun. Let that sink in :P


Either?

NO...

Its pretty clear that Nintendo is going to be the one thats first to it..... However its going to be barely any faster than the PS4.

(nintendo dont spend enough on hardware $, or accept recouping costs from subscriptions & software, ontop of that they might have a expensive part like the gamepad sold with the consol).

 

Thats how I see it.

Late 2016 / early 2017  Nintenod releases a new consol, a tiny bit stronger than the PS4.

 

 

*edit :


People predicting under 30million for Xbox one sales.... seriously? I just dont see it doing that badly.



teigaga on 06 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
teigaga said:

don't see what would warrant this especially the almost 50% drop in 2017.

So a $199-299 pricetag, Gears 4, Elderscrolls 7 and Grand Theft Auto 6 and ALL the other third party games aren't going to move hardware? Or is everyone in the states suddenly going to side with Playstation? I'll agree to disagree here

Why no? A lot of console are super dropped in a year... look GameCube, 3DS, Wii, PSP, ecc...

I just think that by 2017 XBO will become a old console, the pricedrop will be nothing as for now, and yes, the PlayStation will eat the XBO sales...

 

Any way damn, stop, that is just my prediction why your guys reply only me and not the other prediction? xD

Take it as a compliment, many people I wouldn't bother arguing with because they're too crazy and they clearly don't pay attention to sales haha



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Miyamotoo on 06 May 2015

Around 185m.

PS4 - 120m
Xbox One - 40-50m
Wii U - 15-20m



sales2099 on 06 May 2015
JRPGfan said:
sales2099 said:

200 million tops.

- Where Wii tapped into a new demographic, there is no such thing happening this time.
- PS4 will sell so well that it will actually choke the potential from Xbox One/WiiU, where as all 3 thrived last gen.
- Nintendo/MS will be frustrated with sales this gen to the point where they prematurely start a new gen, getting a head start on PS5 and thus cutting PS4's lifespan short.

Fun fact: MS made the (now evident) mistake of waiting 8 (8!!!!) years since 360's launch to launch the Xbox One. This was due to sustain its profitability. MS in the 6th gen waited only 4 years to drop its first console, due to severe lack of profitability in part to the clear monopoly of the PS2.

This gen could end as early as 2017.....either Nintendo or MS could jump the gun. Let that sink in :P


Either?

NO...

Its pretty clear that Nintendo is going to be the one thats first to it..... However its going to be barely any faster than the PS4.

(nintendo dont spend enough on hardware $, or accept recouping costs from subscriptions & software, ontop of that they might have a expensive part like the gamepad sold with the consol).

 

Thats how I see it.

Late 2016 / early 2017  Nintenod releases a new consol, a tiny bit stronger than the PS4.

*edit :


People predicting under 30million for Xbox one sales.... seriously? I just dont see it doing that badly.

Ya I am inclined to agree, I see MS following suit in Nov. 2018 (5 year cycle for Xbox 1). Not too short, enough to gain ground back from Nintendo, and force Sonys hand to rush the PS5.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

JRPGfan on 06 May 2015

If MS does a new consol before 2019 they are shooting themselfs in the foot.
You dont want to jump the gun on these things.

It needs to match up to either a new process node, or new tech release, or atleast be close to the competitor so you dont end up to far behinde when they come out with theirs.



Wonktonodi on 06 May 2015

that's a lot of rounding 85+85+101 is 271.
while the numbers here are low, I don't think they are 20 million low.



sergiodaly on 06 May 2015

This gen will be shorter for sure, and without a casual console like the wii was, this gen can be smaller in terms of sale numbers, but gaming is expanding to a much more broader audience. I say 250 millions, ps4 will beat the ps2 and xb one will get close to the 360 numbers, wii u will unfortunately be the last and can get 30 millions if nintendo rapidly cuts is price to 99

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