With the recent leak by cream of Captain Toad Treasure Tracker selling 250k in December launch month and selling about 130k so far in Japan

that brings it to 380k in Japan and US only.

This doesnt add in EU where it debuted at number 1 in germany(and was #6 in its 2nd week) and debuting at 14 in the UK.

So would you consider it a success and Nintendo would be willing to make a sequal later on?

Looks like a success to me.
I don't know if we will see a sequel anytime soon, but I guess it's definitely possible in the future.

I'd say so. A lower price point can do wonders sometimes. See Sniper Ghost Warrior.

I'm sure the game was easy, quick and cheap to make, so a sequel it's possible.

This will gently stroll over a million worldwide, I'd say it's a success. It's probably hard to make a direct sequel fresh and succesfull though, but maybe they'll be confident to give Toad his own line of a variety of smaller games.

on its way to 1m. outperforming hyrule warriors and tropical freeze week by week in those games' first ten weeks, both of which are days (tropical freeze) or weeks (hyrule warriors) from hitting 1m.

i think it's going to surprise everyone the same way that super luigi u did. it's nice that it's also a terrific game.

340,000 units x 30$ (taking out stocking fees and what not) = 10.2$ million.

Toad's budget = 5$.

I'd say it was a success.

I hope the Tokyo dev team are focusing on something massive honestly. I'm not opposed to a sequel though.

It was definitely a success, but i doubt there will be a sequal... though i think a sequel is guaranteed.

it's probably at 500k with media crate numbers for beginning of january (~10k) and european launch (it was the number 1 game in germany, for example).