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Forums - Gaming Discussion - 3.3m PS4, 800k PS3 shipped last quarter, 13.5m shipped as of Sep. 30. Sony giving discrete numbers again.

bigjon said:
bonzobanana said:
We are well into the christmas selling season. Retailers will increase stock levels so doesn't necessarily mean under-tracking. Consoles are very seasonal with huge peaks in sales in November and December. Clearly retailers will increase stock levels just before this. If you don't see the same surge in shipment figures for xbox one and wii u its probably because there is still much more unsold stock in retail channels.

I disagree with the comment about ps3 winding down. Its sales are still very healthy ahead of 360 and wii u and in Europe its still a very significant format. I see the ps3 as in a very healthy position for a few years yet.


these numbers are end of month 30 sep. No way they are stuffed the CMAS supply channels by that much.

 

Shipped does not mean sitting in a warehouse waiting for CMAS. Shipped means a retailer purchased them. I doupt retailers were stocking their warehouses full of PS4s in SEP.

I think it is 600k to 1 mill undertracked. Also PS4 has less of a CMAS effect than XB1. PS4 is more of a worldwide console and many countries dont celebrate CMAS like the US. The XB1 is US/UK centric where CMAS is a huge deal.

I'm guessing you mean percentage wise, because PS4 is bigger than XB1 in US and UK. Europe is big on christmas too and PS4 dominates everything there. 



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How come people love to pretend they know how many consoles are sitting on shelves and make assumptions about consoles sold to consumers out of thin air?

I see a lot of PS4s standing on shelves when I walk into a store, and I live in a small country where Sony owns like 90% of the market. It isn't hard to believe like 2-3M sitting on stores. PS4 is selling like a motherf*****, so wouldn't be hard to imagine they're overshipping. If 500.000 stores around the world have in average 5 PS4s on shelves, that's 2,5M PS4s shipped not sold...

Anyway, I digresse from my original point, shouldn't we discuss the shipped consoles instead of trying to guess consoles sold to consumer, since it always ens with a discussion? Shipped are the most accurate numbers we have, and if they ship those many consoles they're probably going to sell sooner or later, I mean, these companies don't ship consoles without speciaized analysts tell them to ship x consoles.

Or maybe we could use a golden rule to apply on every situation we hear about shipped consoles. Like for instance, 10%-15% out of shipped are in stores every given day, huh? How about that?
Cuz how things are right now I'd take VGChartz numbers over any opinion a user on this forums make. Although VGChartz is often wrong, at least they have better sources than any user, cuz, y9u know, that's their job...



Most possibly undertracked outside the main regions. It's the big console of choice world wide.



Xevross said:
bigjon said:
bonzobanana said:
We are well into the christmas selling season. Retailers will increase stock levels so doesn't necessarily mean under-tracking. Consoles are very seasonal with huge peaks in sales in November and December. Clearly retailers will increase stock levels just before this. If you don't see the same surge in shipment figures for xbox one and wii u its probably because there is still much more unsold stock in retail channels.

I disagree with the comment about ps3 winding down. Its sales are still very healthy ahead of 360 and wii u and in Europe its still a very significant format. I see the ps3 as in a very healthy position for a few years yet.


these numbers are end of month 30 sep. No way they are stuffed the CMAS supply channels by that much.

 

Shipped does not mean sitting in a warehouse waiting for CMAS. Shipped means a retailer purchased them. I doupt retailers were stocking their warehouses full of PS4s in SEP.

I think it is 600k to 1 mill undertracked. Also PS4 has less of a CMAS effect than XB1. PS4 is more of a worldwide console and many countries dont celebrate CMAS like the US. The XB1 is US/UK centric where CMAS is a huge deal.

I'm guessing you mean percentage wise, because PS4 is bigger than XB1 in US and UK. Europe is big on christmas too and PS4 dominates everything there. 

yes. The % of the PS4 userbase in US / UK is lower than the % of userbase for XB1 is US/UK. My point was the PS4 is pretty big in a lot of countried that dont celebrate CMAS or it is not as big of consumer holiday as it is in the US.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

bigjon said:

yes. The % of the PS4 userbase in US / UK is lower than the % of userbase for XB1 is US/UK. My point was the PS4 is pretty big in a lot of countried that dont celebrate CMAS or it is not as big of consumer holiday as it is in the US.

Yeah I get your point, PS4 will have a bigger christmas boost but XB1 will be boosted by a greater %. I think PS4 shipments for the last Q will be 8m while XB1 will be about 4m



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Giggs_11 said:
How come people love to pretend they know how many consoles are sitting on shelves and make assumptions about consoles sold to consumers out of thin air?

I see a lot of PS4s standing on shelves when I walk into a store, and I live in a small country where Sony owns like 90% of the market. It isn't hard to believe like 2-3M sitting on stores. PS4 is selling like a motherf*****, so wouldn't be hard to imagine they're overshipping. If 500.000 stores around the world have in average 5 PS4s on shelves, that's 2,5M PS4s shipped not sold...

Anyway, I digresse from my original point, shouldn't we discuss the shipped consoles instead of trying to guess consoles sold to consumer, since it always ens with a discussion? Shipped are the most accurate numbers we have, and if they ship those many consoles they're probably going to sell sooner or later, I mean, these companies don't ship consoles without speciaized analysts tell them to ship x consoles.

Or maybe we could use a golden rule to apply on every situation we hear about shipped consoles. Like for instance, 10%-15% out of shipped are in stores every given day, huh? How about that?
Cuz how things are right now I'd take VGChartz numbers over any opinion a user on this forums make. Although VGChartz is often wrong, at least they have better sources than any user, cuz, y9u know, that's their job...


ok so.................... you think 2-3 million are on the shelves. So even in a good month the PS4 is selling 1 mill a month. So by your metric the average shelflife of a PS4 is over one months. If retailers continue to order PS4s even though they take over a month to sell they are cray cray.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Giggs_11 said:
How come people love to pretend they know how many consoles are sitting on shelves and make assumptions about consoles sold to consumers out of thin air?

I see a lot of PS4s standing on shelves when I walk into a store, and I live in a small country where Sony owns like 90% of the market. It isn't hard to believe like 2-3M sitting on stores. PS4 is selling like a motherf*****, so wouldn't be hard to imagine they're overshipping. If 500.000 stores around the world have in average 5 PS4s on shelves, that's 2,5M PS4s shipped not sold...

Anyway, I digresse from my original point, shouldn't we discuss the shipped consoles instead of trying to guess consoles sold to consumer, since it always ens with a discussion? Shipped are the most accurate numbers we have, and if they ship those many consoles they're probably going to sell sooner or later, I mean, these companies don't ship consoles without speciaized analysts tell them to ship x consoles.

Or maybe we could use a golden rule to apply on every situation we hear about shipped consoles. Like for instance, 10%-15% out of shipped are in stores every given day, huh? How about that?
Cuz how things are right now I'd take VGChartz numbers over any opinion a user on this forums make. Although VGChartz is often wrong, at least they have better sources than any user, cuz, y9u know, that's their job...

Using a percentage would be stupid since then you'd have to say PS360 have 8m+ on shelves each...which obviously is not possible.

VGChartz is more often than not way off on hardware sales, only getting close due to being able to update based on official sources. 



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Ka-pi96 said:
Ninsect said:
PS4 has 2m on shelves, yo

Yeah... while the Wii U has nothing at all on shelves...

Not true! WiiU has negative 50000 on shelves!



Ka-pi96 said:
Ninsect said:
PS4 has 2m on shelves, yo

Yeah... while the Wii U has nothing at all on shelves...

Obviously, that thing is selling like hotcakes and retailers can't keep it in stock while nobody is grabbing the PS4s from the shelves



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Xevross said:
Ka-pi96 said:
Ninsect said:
PS4 has 2m on shelves, yo

Yeah... while the Wii U has nothing at all on shelves...

Not true! WiiU has negative 50000 on shelves!

They actually have shelves on WiiUs...