By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy

curl-6 said:
I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.

It'll take more than just having a marginally bigger economy than the US to be a world's superpower once China just passes the US economy. Last year, the US alone accounted for over 35% of the world's military spending compared to China's 10%!



Around the Network

Here's a hint: Maybe because they don't spend trillions of dollars on useless, pointless wars, and ridiculously bloated "defense" spending? Just a thought.



ktay95 said:
curl-6 said:
I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.

Im just going to ask why??

If I actually responded to you I would probably piss off a majority of the users here =P

If that offends you I'm sorry.

I just really don't like the CCP. Tiananmen Square, Tibet, totalitarian suppression of freedom of speech/expression, etc.



curl-6 said:
I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.


China has a long way to go before it can be considered a superpower. China is well behind the West in terms of a rich middle class, a large amount of people live in poverty, and a majority live under $5 a day and China is surrounded by rival countries including countries which China had wars with in the last 70 years, including India, Japan and Vietnam. The United States, the UK and the Soviet Union (to a lesser degree) also have had a massive cultural impact on the world which was a proof of their hegemony. So raw GDP doesn't mean much on it's own.



curl-6 said:
ktay95 said:
curl-6 said:
I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.

Im just going to ask why??

If I actually responded to you I would probably piss off a majority of the users here =P

If that offends you I'm sorry.

I just really don't like the CCP. Tiananmen Square, Tibet, totalitarian suppression of freedom of speech/expression, etc.

No it doesnt offend me, its just the stuff I would say about my dislike of the US that would offend others. I can totally see where your coming from. AUSTRALIA SHOULD BE THE WORLD'S SUPERPOWER!!! =P Well maybe not with our current government, or the one thats not in power... Australian politics sucks -_-



Around the Network
atma998 said:
nanarchy said:
atma998 said:
As many said, China's GDP is still behind the USA. It will still takes decades before it surpasses USA but this will definitely happens. My estimate is sometime around 2040.


Actually at current growth rate it will surpass the US within the next decade and will be more than double the US by 2030-2040.


Not at all.

 

Current USA GDP is at 16.77 trillion vs. 9.47 trillion for China.

Lets say China's GDP growth is 6% per year in average while USA one is 3% than it means that it will takes until 2033 before China surpasses USA.

That said I don't think China will be able to maintain a 6% GDP growth for 20 years in a row as the growth tend to decrease as China is getting richer.


US growth is well below 3% and China is well above 6%. Current estimates put China passing the US in the 2020-2025 timeframe if current rates are maintained. Chinas growth would have to slow by 30-50% while the US picks up significantly in the next few years for it to take until 2033



ktay95 said:
curl-6 said:

If that offends you I'm sorry.

I just really don't like the CCP. Tiananmen Square, Tibet, totalitarian suppression of freedom of speech/expression, etc.

No it doesnt offend me, its just the stuff I would say about my dislike of the US that would offend others. I can totally see where your coming from. AUSTRALIA SHOULD BE THE WORLD'S SUPERPOWER!!! =P Well maybe not with our current government, or the one thats not in power... Australian politics sucks -_-

Oh God, the thought of Australia as a superpower under the current government is scary as hell, haha.

And yeah, there's a lot I could criticise about the US too. But hey, I trust them more than the CCP...



nanarchy said:
atma998 said:

Not at all.

 

Current USA GDP is at 16.77 trillion vs. 9.47 trillion for China.

Lets say China's GDP growth is 6% per year in average while USA one is 3% than it means that it will takes until 2033 before China surpasses USA.

That said I don't think China will be able to maintain a 6% GDP growth for 20 years in a row as the growth tend to decrease as China is getting richer.


US growth is well below 3% and China is well above 6%. Current estimates put China passing the US in the 2020-2025 timeframe if current rates are maintained. Chinas growth would have to slow by 30-50% while the US picks up significantly in the next few years for it to take until 2033

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country namehttp://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013
China 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7
United States -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.



MDMAlliance said:
nanarchy said:
atma998 said:

Not at all.

 

Current USA GDP is at 16.77 trillion vs. 9.47 trillion for China.

Lets say China's GDP growth is 6% per year in average while USA one is 3% than it means that it will takes until 2033 before China surpasses USA.

That said I don't think China will be able to maintain a 6% GDP growth for 20 years in a row as the growth tend to decrease as China is getting richer.


US growth is well below 3% and China is well above 6%. Current estimates put China passing the US in the 2020-2025 timeframe if current rates are maintained. Chinas growth would have to slow by 30-50% while the US picks up significantly in the next few years for it to take until 2033

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country namehttp://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013
China 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7  
United States -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9  

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.

2% vs 3% is a massive difference as is 7.7 vs 6%. these are not small differences. The US needs a 50% increase in growth rate to reach 3% China needs a >20% drop to reach 6%. given the compounding effects the actual requirements for his estimate to come true require china to drop well below 6% and the US to climb well above 3%. 2033 would require an amazing economic turnaround from the US and massive slowdown from China.



nanarchy said:
MDMAlliance said:

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country namehttp://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013
China 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7  
United States -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9  

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.

2% vs 3% is a massive difference as is 7.7 vs 6%. these are not small differences. The US needs a 50% increase in growth rate to reach 3% China needs a >20% drop to reach 6%. given the compounding effects the actual requirements for his estimate to come true require china to drop well below 6% and the US to climb well above 3%. 2033 would require an amazing economic turnaround from the US and massive slowdown from China.


I don't think you understand this very well if you think that it's "massive" of a difference.  You do realize that the variance in the annual GDP growth rate is common to be around 1%, which is the amount you're calling "massive."  Are you saying that all economies fluctuate greatly all the time?  Since it's relative, and most countries actually fluctuate MORE than just 1% year on year, it's not all that massive at all.  

edit: Also, it's not all that unbelievable to think that China would experience a significant slowdown (moreso than US "amazing turnaround" given that the US GDP growth rate would take a lot to move up or down that much meaning it would likely remain at 2% with occasional fluctuations in either direction).