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nanarchy on 09 October 2014
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MDMAlliance said:
nanarchy said:
atma998 said:

Not at all.

 

Current USA GDP is at 16.77 trillion vs. 9.47 trillion for China.

Lets say China's GDP growth is 6% per year in average while USA one is 3% than it means that it will takes until 2033 before China surpasses USA.

That said I don't think China will be able to maintain a 6% GDP growth for 20 years in a row as the growth tend to decrease as China is getting richer.


US growth is well below 3% and China is well above 6%. Current estimates put China passing the US in the 2020-2025 timeframe if current rates are maintained. Chinas growth would have to slow by 30-50% while the US picks up significantly in the next few years for it to take until 2033

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country namehttp://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" class="active" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013
China 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7  
United States -2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9  

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.

2% vs 3% is a massive difference as is 7.7 vs 6%. these are not small differences. The US needs a 50% increase in growth rate to reach 3% China needs a >20% drop to reach 6%. given the compounding effects the actual requirements for his estimate to come true require china to drop well below 6% and the US to climb well above 3%. 2033 would require an amazing economic turnaround from the US and massive slowdown from China.