China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy

[MDMAlliance]

nanarchy said:

MDMAlliance said:

While I do agree that his numbers are not an accurate representation of the GDP growth of each respective country, your statement that US growth is "well below" 3% is misleading.  US GPD growth is at approximately 2%.  Also, China's GDP growth rate isn't all that much higher than 6% as well, it having dropped since 2010 from around 10% to a little under 8% 

Country name	http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2009+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-first&sort=asc">2009	http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2010	http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2011	http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value&sort=asc">2012	http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/themes/wbbase/images/sprite.png) 0px -620px;" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc">2013

China

9.2

10.4

9.3

7.7

7.7

United States

-2.8

2.5

1.8

2.8

1.9

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

I'm sure you can see that China already is showing signs of not being able to sustain its current level of growth.

2% vs 3% is a massive difference as is 7.7 vs 6%. these are not small differences. The US needs a 50% increase in growth rate to reach 3% China needs a >20% drop to reach 6%. given the compounding effects the actual requirements for his estimate to come true require china to drop well below 6% and the US to climb well above 3%. 2033 would require an amazing economic turnaround from the US and massive slowdown from China.

I don't think you understand this very well if you think that it's "massive" of a difference.  You do realize that the variance in the annual GDP growth rate is common to be around 1%, which is the amount you're calling "massive."  Are you saying that all economies fluctuate greatly all the time?  Since it's relative, and most countries actually fluctuate MORE than just 1% year on year, it's not all that massive at all.  

edit: Also, it's not all that unbelievable to think that China would experience a significant slowdown (moreso than US "amazing turnaround" given that the US GDP growth rate would take a lot to move up or down that much meaning it would likely remain at 2% with occasional fluctuations in either direction).