Non-bundled software? It can happen.

Largely because the Destiny PS4 bundle is just so...appealing, and a lot of people waited till Destiny dropped to get a PS4.

I really don't get why your using this as a argument for the X1. I agree with most of the other points but you're trying to indicate some sort of swing on Amazon when there isn't. For the year PS4 wins, for the most recent month (this month) PS4 wins. The hourly updates change regularly so it's far more less acurate than monthly or yearly data. If the X1 was winning this month then you might of had a point that there is a swing starting to happen if favour of the X1.

after all the pre release hype for destiny (mainly on ps4) the xb1 version is climbing since july

september npd is 4 more weeks.

so it could overtake the ps4 standalone version until the end of the tracking period.

u really dont see that trend?

I think it's an outside shot but you make good points. Especially with the attach rate being higher on XBO. It will be close but I think that the bigger userbase for PS4 will keep it ahead on Destiny sales.

@Headshot

Ok no problem.

Regarding how many of each last gen sales have upgraded, it's a little side interest of mine as it's been often said that many 360 gamers are simply waiting to upgrade to the one, rather than choosing not to.

If Destiny, on Xbox One, outsells PS4 despite PS4 having a bigger install base,

then we can suggest that alot, if not most Xbox fans (being Halo/Bungie fans) have already upgraded to X1. 

Admittedly, it's not concrete, and we can probably tell more by the sales of the 360/ps3 versions of Destiny.

Once I can make a new thread I will take my time to do a better post and with better data.

We should start to get an idea (from a UK point of view) on monday when Chart-track shows which platform is on top. 

Reasonable conclusion that you've obviously done some research on. It should be close.

Just to throw in a monkey wrench this gen's numbers on VGC will be increasingly off because of digital distribution. DDL will at least slightly favour X1 imho. The PS crowd were at the heart of the physical media uproar when M$ floated their idea of cutting out Gamestop etc. It's fair to assume a smaller percentage of PS4 owners will be downloading the title when: 1 they are more likely to be from that group and 2 they have less experience with Bungie and may want to keep the option to sell the physical copy if it sucks. Which it does not.

Remember also in the "$500m" press release that EA particularly mentioned this was the largest ddl opening for any console title I believe. They didn't include the qualification of "for new IPs" that followed "Best opening" Sounds like a significant contribution. Hopefully we'll get something more.

Sorry, long boring explanation for something that could be said in a sentence.

On some of your points I agree, on others I dont. (dont worry about people shouting, there is nothing wrong with having a prediction and giving your reasons for it, that is perfectly fine :)

Hourly charts - these are generally pointless. I've written a few books and it's amazing when someone buys a couple of copies how much they jump up a chart. The hourly stuff is generally not worth looking at.

XBO being a shooter console. I give you that a little, the X360 was definately the shooter box and it is possible that some of that group move onto the XBO. I think it's still not clear if those users will move onto the XBO or PS4. I think COD in November will be the true test of that.... but the Detiny figures will definately give us a direction.

Destiny was on Beta for XBO, but dont forget it was on Alpha and Beta for Sony with more days, I think if you were really wanting to play it and not wait for release, people might have gone for the PS4 version first.. though I personally dont think it would push many consoles.

The Fragrance: This will not have made any difference to the sales imho.

PS4 marketing: Sony had exclusive marketing, that totally outweighs the small stuff MS were trying to do. I think we saw with Watch_Dogs, that exclusive marketing can really make a big difference.

One free game promotion: Yep I think this might have swayed some people to buy XBO. In fact Sony had to start selling the destiny bundle at £349 in the UK to match this deal, they were obviously worried about this.

So I think your most interesting point is the Bundles.. and how much that might cause a swing in actual retail copies. It's an interesting point but i think Sony might just about get it. Most people who got the white/black Destiny Bundle didnt already have the console (in most cases). The same would be said for any XBO users buying the console, So what we have left is those that already have a console buying the game. As the PS4 leads in the USA by 700k? then it's those that are the important ones. 

I think Destiny should have done ok on PS4, and though this is a game I think the XBO users would come out for, I think its a Watch_dogs situation, where it will do better on PS4.

I think the gap might only be a 100k in favour of PS4 though in retail sales (without bundles) so that would be quite respectable for XBO, I just think the bundles will then kill it on the other side.

It's possible...but it would be a pretty sad constilation prize.

Yay, the Xbox One version of Destiny outsold the PS4 version if you don't count the massively popular bundle or anywhere outside of the U.S.

I think it will be fairly close retail only. The truly insane thing is that 500k+ copies may go out as bundles for the month at minimum. The data we have right this minute shows ps4 standalone winning for the year, but I'm willing to entertain the potential for x1 to overtake it, even if I don't find it likely. A big risk to the x1 is that free game promo is dead now, and the destiny bundles will probably be spotty in availability as the month progresses, so there will probably be those that spend the extra $10 to get a standalone and destiny together at the register. I've already seen the bundle sold out at many local retailers here in dallas. The Madden bundle is gone too.