Reasonable conclusion that you've obviously done some research on. It should be close.
Just to throw in a monkey wrench this gen's numbers on VGC will be increasingly off because of digital distribution. DDL will at least slightly favour X1 imho. The PS crowd were at the heart of the physical media uproar when M$ floated their idea of cutting out Gamestop etc. It's fair to assume a smaller percentage of PS4 owners will be downloading the title when: 1 they are more likely to be from that group and 2 they have less experience with Bungie and may want to keep the option to sell the physical copy if it sucks. Which it does not.
Remember also in the "$500m" press release that EA particularly mentioned this was the largest ddl opening for any console title I believe. They didn't include the qualification of "for new IPs" that followed "Best opening" Sounds like a significant contribution. Hopefully we'll get something more.
Sorry, long boring explanation for something that could be said in a sentence.
