| prinz_valium said: before u guys all freak out, note this: i said showed and npd doenst count games bundled with hardware
what makes me think so? several points: amazon rankings --> xb1 standalone wins july and august. is ahed of ps4 verison on the houry chart and climbes for the yearly form #14 ps4 vs #17 xb1 to #14 ps4 and #15 xb1 xbox one had no big software sales after titanfall, while ps4 had watch dogs and tlofu remake. xb1 attachrate right now 3.2 while ps4 has 2.9. but the ps4 attachrate was growing over the last month, while the xb1 attachrate only by a very slow pace xbox one is still a schooter console with many (scifi) shooter and bungie game fans. destiy for xb1 got a beta, and beside the exclusive ps4 marketing deal, this game is heavily promoted by microsoft. the fragrance. the free one game promotion. on every big gamingshow phil mentioned destiny as a big blogbuster coming to xb1
the ps4 bundle: right now its even ahead of the titanfall bundle on amazon rankings. if they're reliable, this bundle is at over 300k+ units. so xb1 can sell 300k less overall units, but will still be shown ahead for npd
the ps4:xb1 gap is at only 730k units for the usa. so without the bundle sales, the xbox one dont even need higher attachrate, to sell more games than the ps4 1m xb1 sales --> 3207 + (~300k) =3.5m installbase --> 28,5% attachrate 1.3m ps4 sales --> 3944 +(~500k) = 4.45m installbase --> 29,2% attachrate ( ) sales are a guess. rest is npd data and as more white ps4 destiny bundels will be sold, the more likely this could come ture
this is just a 50:50 chance could happen prediction. so pls dont shout it out at me, if im wrong. |
On some of your points I agree, on others I dont. (dont worry about people shouting, there is nothing wrong with having a prediction and giving your reasons for it, that is perfectly fine :)
Hourly charts - these are generally pointless. I've written a few books and it's amazing when someone buys a couple of copies how much they jump up a chart. The hourly stuff is generally not worth looking at.
XBO being a shooter console. I give you that a little, the X360 was definately the shooter box and it is possible that some of that group move onto the XBO. I think it's still not clear if those users will move onto the XBO or PS4. I think COD in November will be the true test of that.... but the Detiny figures will definately give us a direction.
Destiny was on Beta for XBO, but dont forget it was on Alpha and Beta for Sony with more days, I think if you were really wanting to play it and not wait for release, people might have gone for the PS4 version first.. though I personally dont think it would push many consoles.
The Fragrance: This will not have made any difference to the sales imho.
PS4 marketing: Sony had exclusive marketing, that totally outweighs the small stuff MS were trying to do. I think we saw with Watch_Dogs, that exclusive marketing can really make a big difference.
One free game promotion: Yep I think this might have swayed some people to buy XBO. In fact Sony had to start selling the destiny bundle at £349 in the UK to match this deal, they were obviously worried about this.
So I think your most interesting point is the Bundles.. and how much that might cause a swing in actual retail copies. It's an interesting point but i think Sony might just about get it. Most people who got the white/black Destiny Bundle didnt already have the console (in most cases). The same would be said for any XBO users buying the console, So what we have left is those that already have a console buying the game. As the PS4 leads in the USA by 700k? then it's those that are the important ones.
I think Destiny should have done ok on PS4, and though this is a game I think the XBO users would come out for, I think its a Watch_dogs situation, where it will do better on PS4.
I think the gap might only be a 100k in favour of PS4 though in retail sales (without bundles) so that would be quite respectable for XBO, I just think the bundles will then kill it on the other side.
Making an indie game : Dead of Day!
