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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will have 50% Market Share by end of 2014

Zanten on 31 August 2014
padib said:
Zanten said:

Soooo can I get a piece of this action? :3 in my case though, I have no particular opinion about WiiU sales, as I don't pay much attention to it in terms of market performance, so I'd like to keep my bet offer restricted to the sales of the PlayStation 4. Even 13 million seems- short of an Act of God obliterating shipments during the holidays- significantly lowballing, and so I would like to extend my own bet, with modified stakes to make things... Interesting.

-If the PS4 sells below 14 million by the end of 2014, even if it's 13,999,999 then you receive forty days of sig control.

-Between 14 million and 14,999,999 the bet is annulled, nobody wins.

-Between 15 million and 15,999,999 I receive fifteen days sig control.

-Between 16 million and 16,999,999 I receive thirty days.

-Between 17 million etc etc I get 45, and so on.

 

to summarize, you have a 2 million unit safety bubble where no consequences come to you, at the cost of a set victory condition of 40 days. But past that, the stakes grow higher and higher. If the PS4 DOES hit 18 million, I'd get sixty days, but that only happens if your prediction is waaaaaaaay off.

 

Winner to be determined end of Febuary, to allow for adjustments.

(I have to go back to work, will deal with any response in a few hours!)

Nah, I can't do that. Nice try though it was tempting at first. I did a little modeling based on the PS3's 2010 year (with a similar baseline to the PS4's current year) and it hits 7m total sales globally in the period from end of Aug to end of Dec. I'm starting to doubt my bet with DD_Bwest, but here's to hoping Smash makes a splash and I'm right about the PS4 being front-loaded.


Hee hee, aww, all right. x3 And I do have to say, though, the twelve million sales is just pretty much zero chance, even the sales are frontloaded, doubt they'd be THAT frontloaded. o.o 13 is more 'Snowball's chance in hell' possible, given it would basically require no boost from the holidays. The thing is, even if the sales are frontloaded, they sold, what four million units in a month and a half? It's PLENTY frontloaded, it's just that the 'trailing tail' if it is stilll higher than one would expect. But not sure additionally frontloaded sales (i.e. saying 150k a week is frontloaded) would maintain for over half a year, especially given stock in the larger regions finally normalized to meet demand months ago, but we haven't seen a corresponding dip in sales rate to account for pent up demand being met.



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Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

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wary-wallaroo on 01 September 2014

I could see it happen. The Wii U has Smash which should take it to 10 million. The X1 has the MCC which I think will be like TF in that it'll sell very well, but it won't move the systems people expect (I mean, come on guys, everyone who wanted to play these games did so last gen) so I think it'll do rather bad (and be practically dead outside NA and little NA). I wonder at what point people will accept that the X1 is just, for the most part, an undesirable console much like the the Wii U. It took Wii U fans a bit over a year to accept it, wonder if it'll be the same for X1 fans. 

The only thing is, I don't know if the PS4 can reach 18 million. I don't even know if Sony can provide that many consoles and I believe the PS4 is going to end up being in short supply this season. If Sony can make enough, then yea, otherwise I think I'll have to disagree with this.

Still, it should easily do it in the early half of 2015 as the PS4 will hit the ground running next year (especially so if GTAV is delayed till next year).



StarOcean on 01 September 2014

It'll be hard to achieve during the holidays. I think it'll hit it by Feb '15 more likely. When things are settling down from the holiday rush



Ninsect on 01 September 2014
Aerys said:
gcube2000 said:
I can kinda agree with the Wii U one.. pretty close to my 10.7m and I your XB1 prediction is close to mine.. 8.8m but your PS4 one will not happen. It won't sell 8 million in 4 months


If you think X1 can sell 4M, its logical to think PS4 can sell  2 times more, like it did during the whole year

Actually it sold 3 times as much as X1 this year



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Ninsect on 01 September 2014
padib said:
overman1 said:


Dude, its taken the Wii U 2 years to get to 7 million and you think it would sell 4 million in 4 months?

really?

the PS4 sold 10million+ consoles in 9 months and you think it will only sell 3 million with Destiny in SEptember and the holiday season around the corner?

how the hell do you come up with these predictions?

Nah, just kidding XD. I honestly think the U has more potential than the PS4 right now. I think the U was dampened so far, and will break out this holiday. I think the opposite of the PS4.

I really don't believe that, happyD



The One and Only

VizionEck.com

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DD_Bwest on 26 November 2014
DD_Bwest said:
padib said:

Let me calculate.

At 150k weekly, we have 4 months so 16 weeks. 2.4m. Okay let's add 500m for holiday boost so 3m.

PS4 will be at 13m and U will be at 11m. I believe the U will outpace the PS4 by 1 mil from Sept to Dec due to holiday and Smash spike.

im bookmarking this post, and will bring it up again when we get september numbers and its already close to 12,   then again in october when it hits 13,   again in november when it hits 15,  and again in december when it hits 17m.

 

You have to be living in a different world to think the ps4 would have sales like that.   infact i will take a bet with you that the gap will be larger than 4 million at the end of the year

oops, i forgot to do the first couple,  but its november an it hit 15m   :O  and im still very confident it will hit 17million(atleast) in december lol

so the gap is now about 7.6 million,   with 6 more weeks left.  The WiiU needs to average 600k a week BETTER than the ps4 in order to close that to within 4million.



I am Torgo, I take care of the place while the master is away.

"Hes the clown that makes the dark side fun.. Torgo!"

Ha.. i won my bet, but i wasnt around to gloat because im on a better forum!  See ya guys on Viz