PS4 Will have 50% Market Share by end of 2014

[Zanten]

padib said:

Zanten said:

Soooo can I get a piece of this action? :3 in my case though, I have no particular opinion about WiiU sales, as I don't pay much attention to it in terms of market performance, so I'd like to keep my bet offer restricted to the sales of the PlayStation 4. Even 13 million seems- short of an Act of God obliterating shipments during the holidays- significantly lowballing, and so I would like to extend my own bet, with modified stakes to make things... Interesting.

-If the PS4 sells below 14 million by the end of 2014, even if it's 13,999,999 then you receive forty days of sig control.

-Between 14 million and 14,999,999 the bet is annulled, nobody wins.

-Between 15 million and 15,999,999 I receive fifteen days sig control.

-Between 16 million and 16,999,999 I receive thirty days.

-Between 17 million etc etc I get 45, and so on.

 

to summarize, you have a 2 million unit safety bubble where no consequences come to you, at the cost of a set victory condition of 40 days. But past that, the stakes grow higher and higher. If the PS4 DOES hit 18 million, I'd get sixty days, but that only happens if your prediction is waaaaaaaay off.

 

Winner to be determined end of Febuary, to allow for adjustments.

(I have to go back to work, will deal with any response in a few hours!)

Nah, I can't do that. Nice try though it was tempting at first. I did a little modeling based on the PS3's 2010 year (with a similar baseline to the PS4's current year) and it hits 7m total sales globally in the period from end of Aug to end of Dec. I'm starting to doubt my bet with DD_Bwest, but here's to hoping Smash makes a splash and I'm right about the PS4 being front-loaded.

Hee hee, aww, all right. x3 And I do have to say, though, the twelve million sales is just pretty much zero chance, even the sales are frontloaded, doubt they'd be THAT frontloaded. o.o 13 is more 'Snowball's chance in hell' possible, given it would basically require no boost from the holidays. The thing is, even if the sales are frontloaded, they sold, what four million units in a month and a half? It's PLENTY frontloaded, it's just that the 'trailing tail' if it is stilll higher than one would expect. But not sure additionally frontloaded sales (i.e. saying 150k a week is frontloaded) would maintain for over half a year, especially given stock in the larger regions finally normalized to meet demand months ago, but we haven't seen a corresponding dip in sales rate to account for pent up demand being met.