I don't ususally do these, but I'm very confident in this one.
Here's my logic:
Consoles usually sell about 50% of their units in any given calendar year during the last calendar quarter.
That means Q4 = Q1 + Q2 + Q3.
PS4 will have sold a bit over 6m in Q1/2/3. So we can add 6m for the rest of the year and get about 16m PS4s sold by the end of 2014.
Now, as for Xbox One. For the purpose of this prediction I'm going to be extra generous to it, just to prove that I have a pretty wide margin to win this.
It has sold 2m consoles so far this year. If we do the same math and add 2m, that gives us 7m by the end of 2014. But let's make it 8m. That means 5m sales per year.
Add another 5m sales next year and it would make it 13m. But again, let's be double generous and say it explodes due to a price cut and Halo 5. Let's say sales increase by 50% year over year. That means 7.5m sold in 2015 and 15.5m total by the end of 2015.
This is an absolute best case scenario for the Xbox One and is more likely to sell well below that. 12-13m is what I actually expect.
Agree or disagree?
No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.
