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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 2017 > Wii 2008 (sales)

small44 on 28 July 2014
prinz_valium said:
small44 said:
 

There is more chance the generation will be longer then shorter people still buy ps3 and xbox360 well even after X1 and PS4 launch and they are both expensive for a 8 years old consoles and 3rd party still support last gen consoles because they are not ready to abandon last gen the same thing will happen to PS4 and X1.

Longer gen will make slowing the increase  of developement cost.

pc was always stronger then consoles it didn't stop ps2 to sell well and ps3 modestly well people who buy consoles don't want to upgrade many time their pc to play newer games a console will be supported for 10 years without upgrading and smartphone targer people who never play games before.


ps4 need to get new people, who never played games before to reach 100million

what about all the ps1 and ps2 people, who stopped playing videogames afer x years? u need to compensate that sales...

 

thats a logic mistake u made

its simple. pc and mobile phones compete with consoles. no matter, if the pc was always stong (btw it was never such a stong gaming platform, like today) and didnt stop ps2 and ps3 to sell well.

 

how is this questionable?

i never said they compete directly and in the same area as ps4 vs xbox one vs wii u

but they compete for the same people who play digital games

 

 

just a short example of myself:

first i was a handheld + pc gaming guy (gameboy era)

then pc gaming + console guy ( xbox 360 late / wow era)

now i'm a console + mobile phone guy

 

all compete for me spendig money on games...

ps2+xb sold 181 millions and ps3+x360 does 165 millions when both ps3 and xbox360 productions stop the result of ps3+x360 will be very close to ps2+xb total it dosn't look like many ps2 gamers stop playing games but a lot of them just bougth an x360 untead of ps3.And since ps4 is the console by choice for hardcore gamers xbox360 will buy an PS4 instead of X1.

If pc and smartphone don't directly compete with console their is no threat for consoles,you still play on console despite having a mobile phone and millions of peoples are like you so smartphone will not stop people buying ps4



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

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HylianSwordsman on 28 July 2014

I could see PS4 selling over 100 million. Maybe. But it's not going to beat the Wii's 3rd year in it's 5th year. Playstation systems don't work like that. They have shorter but sturdier legs. That said, I see PS4 landing between PS3 and PS1 in lifetime sales, so in other words, between 85-95 million. PS3 is about at it's limit and would be lucky to see between 85-90. PS4 will go beyond that, but not by much. 100 million isn't impossible, but it's not a given.

Drake, man, I used to like your predictions, they were optimistic but reasonable. This is like the second coming of johnlucas. XD



prinz_valium on 28 July 2014
small44 said:

ps2+xb sold 181 millions and ps3+x360 does 165 millions when both ps3 and xbox360 productions stop the result of ps3+x360 will be very close to ps2+xb total it dosn't look like many ps2 gamers stop playing games but a lot of them just bougth an x360 untead of ps3.And since ps4 is the console by choice for hardcore gamers xbox360 will buy an PS4 instead of X1.

If pc and smartphone don't directly compete with console their is no threat for consoles,you still play on console despite having a mobile phone and millions of peoples are like you so smartphone will not stop people buying ps4


i stop here...

ofc some will not buy a ps4, if they are satisfied with smartphone - and / or pc gaming.

 

how many is the thing, that matters.

and if that figure is smaller than getting new customers

thats basic economy and apply to everything. (yes, consoles, too)

 

 



AZWification on 28 July 2014

Yeah......... I don't think it's going to happen.. It might peak in 2017 with 16-20 million, but more than 24 million? Nope.. :-/



                
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AnthonyW86 on 28 July 2014
HylianSwordsman said:
I could see PS4 selling over 100 million. Maybe. But it's not going to beat the Wii's 3rd year in it's 5th year. Playstation systems don't work like that. They have shorter but sturdier legs. That said, I see PS4 landing between PS3 and PS1 in lifetime sales, so in other words, between 85-95 million. PS3 is about at it's limit and would be lucky to see between 85-90. PS4 will go beyond that, but not by much. 100 million isn't impossible, but it's not a given.

Drake, man, I used to like your predictions, they were optimistic but reasonable. This is like the second coming of johnlucas. XD

PS2's peak year's were it's 4th an 5th year(22m and 20m shipped).

Wii however shipped alsmot 26m in it's third year, so unless Sony releases something for PS4 that's going to create a gigantic spur in sales for atleast a full year i don't see PS4 besting 26 million either. Unless project Morpheus is an instant hit, but i doubt it will sell that much.



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Darwinianevolution on 28 July 2014

I think the peak of the PS4 will be around 20 million units. It will have a longer lifespam and it might outsell the Wii (i don't think any console of this gen will sell more than 100m, but it could happen).



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Conegamer on 28 July 2014

No, just no. In 2017 the PS4 will likely get around half of that IMO (around 15-17mil would be my guess) even if it is the peak. The Wii wasn't just a gaming console, it was a phenomenon. That's something the PS4 cannot replicate, so it will never hit the same peaks or get close to it. Getting more than, or close to, 20 million in one year would be amazing IMO.

Also, keep an eye on quote trees please!



 

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WhiteEaglePL on 28 July 2014

Nah.



small44 on 28 July 2014

If there is a 100$ along with GTA5 i think it could do that



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

S.Peelman on 28 July 2014

Not in a million years.

PS4 is doing good enough, but is nowhere near generating the buzz to able to pull such numbers. For the Wii there was a pretty obvious reason why sold so high for a few years (easily out of the leagues of any other home-console mind), but why would the PS4 do the same? What does it have? I'm not even sure the PS3 and 360 combined managed that in any given year.