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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

Lawlight on 21 July 2014
Sharu said:
Lawlight said:
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.


That's not how it works. The PS4 will sell well after the generation is over.

Yes, yes, and PS3 will easily beat Wii lifetime, cause of Sony legs... Heard it before, not impressed. 

Guys you just need to understand that both PS2 and Wii was a phenomens. And applying its patterns to ordinary consoles just doesn't work.


There's a big difference between the PS3 and PS4 though - the PS3's price is very hard to bring down because of nvidia and the complexity of the cell.

We're not applying the Wii's pattern here since it died before the WiiU came out. We're applying the PS1's and PS2's pattern.

The reality is that the PS3 is still expensive for a console that's 8 years old. It's $279 while the PS2 was already $129 years before at this point in the PS2's life. The PS3 is still too expensive for the emerging regions.

Still the PS3 sold 3.7M after the PS4 released so far and that number will keep on increasing. Should the PS3 drop in price ($149 or $179) at some point in the future, I can see it passing the $100M mark.



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chapset on 21 July 2014
ikki5 said:
chapset said:

Lol can you get banned for posting so much nonsense

look at the freaking ds buddy

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/38508/Global/

now 150million plus

The ps3 dipped below 70k and now it's at 83million Jesus

Lol, I'm sorry, but it looks like you left off at what you hilighted. I also understood that the point of forums was to discuss things provided they remained on topic. Just because you don't like what someone says, don't mean that it is nonsense. But I brought up the fact that the DS did that and that it could be possible. But like I said, I don't see it happening because the DS was what I'd call an outlier or an anomaly. You don't usually get systems dropping a bunch and then trippling or quadrupling their numbers 2,3 or 4 years down the road. But this is what got me on the PS4 with all the claims. The PS4 had a killer release, yeah, it did absolutly amazing. But then at the same time, The Xbox One did the exact same. The only difference, Sony rode the wave longer and then numbers carried for a longer period of time. Now they are all dropping, weekly sales games are closing in. and even with the killer start, for something that people claim will sell over 100 mil, It is just odd for it to fall so much, so fast. Like come on, it is selling like what the old consoles were. It's now it is back to just a normal week of numbers for consoles that sold 80 mil. Yeah that starting boost will help push the console but from now on, we are just going to see the normal rollercoaster. Games get release, sales jump and fall, holidays will happen and it will be a roller coaster like it always has. The other thing is that people compare the PS4 and the PS3's start when we all know, the PS3 has some massive issues, was almost double the cost and yet... no one ever wants to factor in those facts. These are things the PS4 didn't start with and doesn't have which is why i am thinking it had such a huge launch. Yeah, things may change, but with what has been going on. I highly doubt it.

So what you are saying is even tho the ds went sub 100k very close after release yet sold 150million, you can't see the ps4 selling 50 million less?

Even tho the ps3 went in the 60k range close after release and will end up at around 90 million you can't see the ps4 selling 10million more (it's 4million ahead by the way, in 8 months lol)

Even tho the 360 went and stayed in the 70k range for months close after release, yet will end up at 90 million you can't see the ps4 doing 10 million more, just because it had one week sub 100k that of course will probably be adjusted back up when we get july npd lol. Do you even look at the data before posting or are you just using those so precise gut feelings?



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

Wazowski on 21 July 2014
chapset said:
ikki5 said:
chapset said:

Lol can you get banned for posting so much nonsense

look at the freaking ds buddy

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/38508/Global/

now 150million plus

The ps3 dipped below 70k and now it's at 83million Jesus

Lol, I'm sorry, but it looks like you left off at what you hilighted. I also understood that the point of forums was to discuss things provided they remained on topic. Just because you don't like what someone says, don't mean that it is nonsense. But I brought up the fact that the DS did that and that it could be possible. But like I said, I don't see it happening because the DS was what I'd call an outlier or an anomaly. You don't usually get systems dropping a bunch and then trippling or quadrupling their numbers 2,3 or 4 years down the road. But this is what got me on the PS4 with all the claims. The PS4 had a killer release, yeah, it did absolutly amazing. But then at the same time, The Xbox One did the exact same. The only difference, Sony rode the wave longer and then numbers carried for a longer period of time. Now they are all dropping, weekly sales games are closing in. and even with the killer start, for something that people claim will sell over 100 mil, It is just odd for it to fall so much, so fast. Like come on, it is selling like what the old consoles were. It's now it is back to just a normal week of numbers for consoles that sold 80 mil. Yeah that starting boost will help push the console but from now on, we are just going to see the normal rollercoaster. Games get release, sales jump and fall, holidays will happen and it will be a roller coaster like it always has. The other thing is that people compare the PS4 and the PS3's start when we all know, the PS3 has some massive issues, was almost double the cost and yet... no one ever wants to factor in those facts. These are things the PS4 didn't start with and doesn't have which is why i am thinking it had such a huge launch. Yeah, things may change, but with what has been going on. I highly doubt it.

So what you are saying is even tho the ds went sub 100k very close after release yet sold 150million, you can't see the ps4 selling 50 million less?

Even tho the ps3 went in the 60k range close after release and will end up at around 90 million you can't see the ps4 selling 10million more (it's 4million ahead by the way, in 8 months lol)

Even tho the 360 went and stayed in the 70k range for months close after release, yet will end up at 90 million you can't see the ps4 doing 10 million more, just because it had one week sub 100k that of course will probably be adjusted back up when we get july npd lol. Do you even look at the data before posting or are you just using those so precise gut feelings?

they can see, they just don't want to.

because DOOM articles says that this generation is the last and wont last, just like the PS2 and Wii era



Pavolink on 21 July 2014
vivster said:
Shrinking market and shorter gen says no.


This.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Dusk on 21 July 2014
Mohasus said:

Pretty sure it will, because that magical $199 will happen faster than it did/will do with PS3.

Doubt it. It has been selling far better than the PS3, there is no need to drop the price of it for a while even though it has a better starting price that the PS3 did. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

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Dusk on 21 July 2014
Rafux said:
Dusk said:
WagnerPaiva said:

At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/

Wow, someone following my train of thought. And I thought I was the only one lol


And you are both wrong, PS4 is on its way to sell 14 million in its first year "with no gaemz", big releases are coming in 2105 and on, plus price cuts, VR tech (could work or could be shit who knows).

It seems like you want the PS4 to fail. It won't.


14 million lol. Are you on crack? That's a damn long time to wait for the big gaemz, not sure the console will be around that long :P

Nope I don't want the Playstation to fail in any way. The post asked how many I think it will sell. So I answered. I am just not as optimistic as many of the people on this forum. I think this entire generation is going to be a lower selling than the last one and that is going to be due to IP fatigue for many of the large IP's as well as less games over all. Again, it's my opinion, don't take it so personally. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

Dusk on 21 July 2014
Rafux said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Many devs have said it is taking longer to develop for this generation. 

http://n4g.com/news/1432744/xbox-one-and-ps4-development-is-8-to-10-times-longer-than-last-gen-says-capcom

http://ps4daily.com/2013/10/killzone-dev-next-gen-games-need-4x-as-much-effort/

But hey whatever.



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

Dusk on 21 July 2014
Wazowski said:

PS4 if it falls hard after 6 years:

2013: 4.2m
2014: 11m - 15m total
2015: 18m - 33m total
2016: 23m (peak) - 56m total
2017: 20m - 76m total
2018: 16m - 92m total
2019: 8m - 100m total
2020: 4m - 104m total

even if it falls hard after 6 year (unlikely) it has a great chance of doing 100m


So you think it's going to sell on average slightly over 442 thousand every week during it's 3-4th year on the market? Wow.



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.

small44 on 21 July 2014
Dusk said:
Rafux said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Many devs have said it is taking longer to develop for this generation. 

http://n4g.com/news/1432744/xbox-one-and-ps4-development-is-8-to-10-times-longer-than-last-gen-says-capcom

http://ps4daily.com/2013/10/killzone-dev-next-gen-games-need-4x-as-much-effort/

But hey whatever.

I don't see any Ps3/Xbox360 games developed in less then 2 years so if we say  generally a game take 2 years to develop it mean a Ps4/X1 games would take 16 years to make!!!!



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Dusk on 21 July 2014
small44 said:
Dusk said:
Rafux said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Many devs have said it is taking longer to develop for this generation. 

http://n4g.com/news/1432744/xbox-one-and-ps4-development-is-8-to-10-times-longer-than-last-gen-says-capcom

http://ps4daily.com/2013/10/killzone-dev-next-gen-games-need-4x-as-much-effort/

But hey whatever.

I don't see any Ps3/Xbox360 games developed in less then 2 years so if we say  generally a game take 2 years to develop it mean a Ps4/X1 games would take 16 years to make!!!!

Dude, got argue with the devs that said it. lol. Not me. It could also mean that between 4-10x the amount of devs are required to try to accomplish the same goals in the same amount of time respectively. That is my guess actually, especially with the 10 stuidos working on AC Unity and the multiples working on most large projects now. 



Gotta figure out how to set these up lol.