Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

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Dusk said:

Rafux said:

nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Many devs have said it is taking longer to develop for this generation. 

http://n4g.com/news/1432744/xbox-one-and-ps4-development-is-8-to-10-times-longer-than-last-gen-says-capcom

http://ps4daily.com/2013/10/killzone-dev-next-gen-games-need-4x-as-much-effort/

But hey whatever.

I don't see any Ps3/Xbox360 games developed in less then 2 years so if we say  generally a game take 2 years to develop it mean a Ps4/X1 games would take 16 years to make!!!!