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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global HW/SW April 26th up!

Xenostar on 07 May 2014
WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?


I agree but I have a question, what is the VG's source of their little data points ?

 

Sales figures on VGChartz are based on estimates extrapolated from small retail samples. When Brett Walton (the owner of the site) was asked he gave the following answer:


 

"The methodology we use for all of our charts in all regions is the same and our data is arrived at by a combination of the following:

- Sampled direct sell-through data
- Industry knowledge and experience - applying past trends in terms of marketshares, regional breakdowns, casual vs hardcore and so on 
- plenty of statistical analysis, regression calculations, market projections
- Contact with industry figures - buy-side analysts (such as Pachter / Divnich), sell-side analysts who work with us on specific products / projects, manufacturers who work with us to project sales of their key titles
- Retail checks - we have a team who talk to stores and estimate shipment figures for low-stock and hard to find items which we struggle to track with our normal data samples.

Exactly how we get from these various sources of data to final figures differs from game to game and console to console and our exact methodologies are confidential for obvious reasons."

Thank you very much. That's the best answer I have read since I'm here.

If NPD shows PS4 outsold - again - X1 in USA for April. What does that mean for VG ? They "made up" too much their numbers ?


NO it means "applying past trends in terms of marketshares"  is skewing there numbers and they need to weighted less in the equation as it can easily be seen that marketshare of the last generation has little effect on the next, as seen with PS2 -> PS3 and Xbox -> 360 and Wii -> Wii U. Gamers are not brand loyalist.



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Fusioncode on 07 May 2014

Added software, hey look a Vita game on top. You don't see that very often.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

binary solo on 07 May 2014
WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?


I agree but I have a question, what is the VG's source of their little data points ?

 

Sales figures on VGChartz are based on estimates extrapolated from small retail samples. When Brett Walton (the owner of the site) was asked he gave the following answer:


 

"The methodology we use for all of our charts in all regions is the same and our data is arrived at by a combination of the following:

- Sampled direct sell-through data
- Industry knowledge and experience - applying past trends in terms of marketshares, regional breakdowns, casual vs hardcore and so on 
- plenty of statistical analysis, regression calculations, market projections
- Contact with industry figures - buy-side analysts (such as Pachter / Divnich), sell-side analysts who work with us on specific products / projects, manufacturers who work with us to project sales of their key titles
- Retail checks - we have a team who talk to stores and estimate shipment figures for low-stock and hard to find items which we struggle to track with our normal data samples.

Exactly how we get from these various sources of data to final figures differs from game to game and console to console and our exact methodologies are confidential for obvious reasons."

Thank you very much. That's the best answer I have read since I'm here.

If NPD shows PS4 outsold - again - X1 in USA for April. What does that mean for VG ? They "made up" too much their numbers ?

It means either their Xb one or PS4 methodoloy is flawed, or both, because they are probably factoring in PS3 vs. Xb360 market share in to their methodology to some extent, but perhaps the weighting of previous gen sales patterns is a bit wrong.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

kirby007 on 07 May 2014

About the credibility issue.

VGC only needs very, VERY basic accuracy. It relies on getting the numbers out faster, and having a community to openly discuss them. These are not a substitute for accuracy, they are different values entirely.

If you're a forum dweller interested in game sales, your pre-VGC option was to cobble numbers together from across the world, and in the case of the US, have only the top ten SKUs, released 2-7 weeks later. With VGC, you have new numbers every week and a big database and 1000 other fans dissecting everything. Better accuracy from NPD a month later cannot compete.

As VGC improved, it moved upmarket. If you're an investor, your old option was again to cobble together WW numbers and sit on your hands waiting for US numbers. Now if game X sells 60K, and VGC reports 100K, that's good enough if expectations were 250K. Add to that a community which quickly finds pertinent inaccuracies, monthly comparisons with NPD, etc, and you can form a feel for what you can trust. Better accuracy from NPD a month later cannot compete.



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

oniyide on 07 May 2014

VGC is doing the best it can and thats a OK. The problem is some of the flip flopping with some users. THe numbers are fine when its in their consoles favor, but they're not when their system of choice is not doing hot. And vice versa. stop it.



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WebMasterFlex on 07 May 2014
oniyide said:
VGC is doing the best it can and thats a OK.

Let's just say if the new NPD shows PS4 again on top on the US' market... some people will have no doubt that it is Xbone's biased. Just relaying what I have read on some boards.



method114 on 07 May 2014
kirby007 said:
About the credibility issue.

VGC only needs very, VERY basic accuracy. It relies on getting the numbers out faster, and having a community to openly discuss them. These are not a substitute for accuracy, they are different values entirely.

If you're a forum dweller interested in game sales, your pre-VGC option was to cobble numbers together from across the world, and in the case of the US, have only the top ten SKUs, released 2-7 weeks later. With VGC, you have new numbers every week and a big database and 1000 other fans dissecting everything. Better accuracy from NPD a month later cannot compete.

As VGC improved, it moved upmarket. If you're an investor, your old option was again to cobble together WW numbers and sit on your hands waiting for US numbers. Now if game X sells 60K, and VGC reports 100K, that's good enough if expectations were 250K. Add to that a community which quickly finds pertinent inaccuracies, monthly comparisons with NPD, etc, and you can form a feel for what you can trust. Better accuracy from NPD a month later cannot compete.

Exactly I don't use VGC to an expect accurate numbers I use them for a rough estimate that's it.



kirby007 on 07 May 2014
WebMasterFlex said:
oniyide said:
VGC is doing the best it can and thats a OK.

Let's just say if the new NPD shows PS4 again on top on the US' market... some people will have no doubt that it is Xbone's biased. Just relaying what I have read on some boards.

those people and boards think its biased anyway, but why do those people matter??



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

WebMasterFlex on 07 May 2014
kirby007 said:
WebMasterFlex said:
oniyide said:
VGC is doing the best it can and thats a OK.

Let's just say if the new NPD shows PS4 again on top on the US' market... some people will have no doubt that it is Xbone's biased. Just relaying what I have read on some boards.

those people and boards think its biased anyway, but why do those people matter??


You actually make a point here. But you know damn well it won't help it...



GribbleGrunger on 07 May 2014
bananaking21 said:


i cant understand why this is so hard to understand. could have XB1 outsell PS4 in april NPD? yes, it could have. nobody is saying its impossible or noo way its gonna happen. but, based on all the data that we have and the recent events that happened, its logical to assume that the PS4 outsold it, and when we see VGC showing XB1 > PS4 in usa when it has been wrong for the past 3 months, its logical to question the numbers. 

and the only thing that is childish in these threads are these pathetic attempts to "call out" other users, when these users questioning the numbers have actually been right. 


Well, exactly. Calling people childish for thinking logically is an insult to intelligence



 

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