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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2014 NPD Thread! - PS4: 271k, XBO: 141k, WiiU: 49k

I know people don't like it when I say this, but I really think the X1 / PS4 figures for Nov-Dec 13' were largely fanboy effect driven - there were 10 million people or so willing to buy a X360 or PS3 for $500+ in 2005-2007, and adjusted for inflation that's more like $600+ in today's money. Those 10 million people willing to buy a system with hardly any games for a high price, based on potential were the people rushing out in November and December. 

People keep saying PS4 isn't doing that great compared to PS3 in 2007...well it's not doing that great compared to PS2 in 2007 either:

Jan 07'

Wii  - 434k
X360 - 294k
PS3 - 244k
DS - 239k
PSP - 211k
GBA - 179k
PS2 - 299k
GC - 34k

It used to be fairly routine to be able to have multiple manfacturers selling around 500,000 consoles a month in the US - that was the case for Nintendo and Sony in 2006-2008, Nintendo in 2009, Nintendo & Microsoft in 2010-2011.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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TheSource said:

I know people don't like it when I say this, but I really think the X1 / PS4 figures for Nov-Dec 13' were largely fanboy effect driven - there were 10 million people or so willing to buy a X360 or PS3 for $500+ in 2005-2007, and adjusted for inflation that's more like $600+ in today's money. Those 10 million people willing to buy a system with hardly any games for a high price, based on potential were the people rushing out in November and December. 

People keep saying PS4 isn't doing that great compared to PS3 in 2007...well it's not doing that great compared to PS2 in 2007 either:

Jan 07'

Wii  - 434k
X360 - 294k
PS3 - 244k
DS - 239k
PSP - 211k
GBA - 179k
PS2 - 299k
GC - 34k

It used to be fairly routine to be able to have multiple manfacturers selling around 500,000 consoles a month in the US - that was the case for Nintendo and Sony in 2006-2008, Nintendo in 2009, Nintendo & Microsoft in 2010-2011.


Considering the fact PS4 is out of stock, and still selling more than 360,DS, Gba, PSP and PS3, it's doing really good, it could sell more of course if there was more supply
Dont forget Wii/PS2/PS3 was available in Japan, so they didnt have to keep stock for an other big launch.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

TheSource said:

I know people don't like it when I say this, but I really think the X1 / PS4 figures for Nov-Dec 13' were largely fanboy effect driven - there were 10 million people or so willing to buy a X360 or PS3 for $500+ in 2005-2007, and adjusted for inflation that's more like $600+ in today's money. Those 10 million people willing to buy a system with hardly any games for a high price, based on potential were the people rushing out in November and December. 

People keep saying PS4 isn't doing that great compared to PS3 in 2007...well it's not doing that great compared to PS2 in 2007 either:

Jan 07'

Wii  - 434k
X360 - 294k
PS3 - 244k
DS - 239k
PSP - 211k
GBA - 179k
PS2 - 299k
GC - 34k

It used to be fairly routine to be able to have multiple manfacturers selling around 500,000 consoles a month in the US - that was the case for Nintendo and Sony in 2006-2008, Nintendo in 2009, Nintendo & Microsoft in 2010-2011.


Hey Source.  Been awhile huh.  Anyways that is what I was just thinking.  I mean I was going to say how good PS4 sales were until I looked back at the comparable month of January 2007 and have a complete turnaround of opinion.  I mean I am just baffled right now at why gamers and other customers aren't upgrading like they did so heavily in the last generation.  Or at least at a similar pace.  It does seem that both PS4 and X1 were able to galvanize a lot of gamers into buying the system at launch, but it seems most people made their decision early rather than later.  

Doesn't seem to have the affect that the Wii did where word of mouth kept spreading it to have more and more people buy it which created the massive shortage for the system and some of the best sales to go along with it.  So my question is what is keeping gamers from upgrading.  I mean possibly price and games, but it isn't like these problems didn't exist for last gen systems as well.  It seems like it would be easier too as the PS3, 360, and Wii have all faded off the market while the PS2 was still burning in the comparable time.  So any ideas haha?



TheSource said:

I know people don't like it when I say this, but I really think the X1 / PS4 figures for Nov-Dec 13' were largely fanboy effect driven - there were 10 million people or so willing to buy a X360 or PS3 for $500+ in 2005-2007, and adjusted for inflation that's more like $600+ in today's money. Those 10 million people willing to buy a system with hardly any games for a high price, based on potential were the people rushing out in November and December. 

People keep saying PS4 isn't doing that great compared to PS3 in 2007...well it's not doing that great compared to PS2 in 2007 either:

Jan 07'

Wii  - 434k
X360 - 294k
PS3 - 244k
DS - 239k
PSP - 211k
GBA - 179k
PS2 - 299k
GC - 34k

It used to be fairly routine to be able to have multiple manfacturers selling around 500,000 consoles a month in the US - that was the case for Nintendo and Sony in 2006-2008, Nintendo in 2009, Nintendo & Microsoft in 2010-2011.

Keep in mind that January was a 5 week month. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Zucas said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
trixiemafia86 said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
So let me get this straight.

$599 PS3's first January > $499 XBone's first January.

By 100k

Wow.

really? wow


Yes, PS3 sold 240k in it's first January.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_January_2007

Xbone sales are horrendous. Wii U is dead. PS4 isn't doing well enough to make up for it (though it's still supplied constrained). I'm really worried about the industry.


Interesting looking back on Wii numbers in its first January in the US.  Sitting at a cool 430k.  Even the PS3 at 240k.  When comparing that to this first January for both PS4 and X1, kinda puts things in perspective.  

I might have been more thrilled about these numbers until I saw that and looked back at where gaming was in January 2007.  With last gen sales down so much, you would have expected more gamers to be moving onwards to the new systems... any of the 3 haha.  Like they did in January 2007, but we don't see that replicated in 2014.  Anyone got guesses?

jan 07 would be 2nd jan for 360

ps3 didnt release in EU till march meaning more supply for NA

 

my opinion but i believe the jump from 6th gen to 7th is bigger and both 360 and wii had a bigger impact in gaming/marketing in 2007 than the current gen with 360s social online gaming introduction and HD graphics to go with the new hdtvs and the wii with the new motion controls which created a so called gaming boom that i feel started and lasted from 2006-2011

 

idk if its just me but im just not getting the same feelling/hype/media in gaming and the industry now as i did in those years



                                                             

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BHR-3 said:
Zucas said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
trixiemafia86 said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
So let me get this straight.

$599 PS3's first January > $499 XBone's first January.

By 100k

Wow.

really? wow


Yes, PS3 sold 240k in it's first January.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_January_2007

Xbone sales are horrendous. Wii U is dead. PS4 isn't doing well enough to make up for it (though it's still supplied constrained). I'm really worried about the industry.


Interesting looking back on Wii numbers in its first January in the US.  Sitting at a cool 430k.  Even the PS3 at 240k.  When comparing that to this first January for both PS4 and X1, kinda puts things in perspective.  

I might have been more thrilled about these numbers until I saw that and looked back at where gaming was in January 2007.  With last gen sales down so much, you would have expected more gamers to be moving onwards to the new systems... any of the 3 haha.  Like they did in January 2007, but we don't see that replicated in 2014.  Anyone got guesses?

jan 07 would be 2nd jan for 360

ps3 didnt release in EU till march meaning more supply for NA

 

my opinion but i believe the jump from 6th gen to 7th is bigger and both 360 and wii had a bigger impact in gaming/marketing in 2007 than the current gen with 360s social online gaming introduction and HD graphics to go with the new hdtvs and the wii with the new motion controls

Well I definitely agree that Wii had a bigger cultural impact to really push the mass craze that was going on.  And I agree with 360 as well, but not until after Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare and Halo 3 which were the real big pushers for XBL.  

But that is an interesting point as maybe there isn't anything "big" to market for these 3 systems that doesn't make people want to jump on board early.  While as you mentioned Wii had motion controls, 360 had the only system, and even PS3 had the Blu-ray player.  Hmm an interesting point.  Thank you for bringing it up.



Man I forgot this happened today.



Adjusting for the five week month in Jan 07 puts PS3 at about what PS2 did in January 2007, and Wii was doing about 350k if you make Jan 07 four weeks instead of five.

I think the major problem this generation is an upgrade problem. Blu Ray + Better Graphics +Online + Move eventually made PS3 a pretty massive upgrade over PS2, Kinect + Better Online + Better Graphics eventually made X360 a pretty massive upgrade over Xbox, and Motion Controls + Better Online + you know, an extra 1000 retail games in lieu of better graphics eventually made Wii a massive uprgade over GC.

Going from PS3-->PS4, X360-->X1, or Wii-->Wii U is pretty terrible in comparison to upgrading from Xbox, GC, PS2 to 360, Wii, PS3 in their hay day three to six years ago.

I think PS3 / X360 didn't become "better" than their predecessors to any substantial portion of their eventual user base until late 2008. I think for PS3, half the PS2 audience still thinks the PS2 is better than PS3, even seven and a quarter years after launch. For Wii U you have a similar problem, 95% of the Wii audience still doesn't see the point in upgrading to Wii U.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Why are people saying the PS4 is doing worse compared to the Wii, PS3 and PS2?

It's sold out.

There's simply no way to know how well it's doing until demand has been met. Suppose there had been 500k available for sale, it's likely it would've sold all 500k.



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